Quote:
Originally Posted by RonCo
Now we see how harsh this developmant model is. A kid entering the universe at 19yo has a 80% chance of receiving an increase by the time he is 24, true enough...but he also has a 96% chance of receiving a talent/potential decrease.
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Interesting stuff. I think you mean 17yo, from your chart. If my Venn diagrams are right, that means between 76 and 80% of 17yos receive both talent boosts and hits- almost all- so it seems crucial to consider the magnitude of boosts and hits to draw the conclusion that teenage prospects are treated harshly by the development engine. To assess this, wouldn't it make more sense to consider the mean contact change (and variance) between ages 17yo and 24yo? The game's player creation engine may also compensate by creating teenagers with higher talents than newly generated older players.
I'm referring only to your contention that the game is 'harsh' on teenage prospects; only 16-20% of 17yos receive a talent hit without a talent boost, so I think other evidence is required to make a conclusion about this. The data is germane to the argument about the frequency of talent changes, and certainly useful in discussing how often upside ought to change in-game.