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Elendil · 06-02-2007, 02:30 PM

So now I do the same with pitchers that I just did with hitters. Here are the statistical categories:

babip=Batting Average on Balls in Play Allowed
hrip=home runs allowed per inning pitched
bbip=walks per inning pitched
hbpip=hit by pitches per inning pitched
wpip=wild pitches per inning pitched
kip=strikeouts per inning pitched
gbpct=ground ball percentage (for OOTP sim only)

I included only pitchers with at least 162 innings pitched in both the MLB and OOTP samples. Here are the MLB correlations:

Code:

         |    babip     hrip     bbip    hbpip     wpip      kip
----------+------------------------------------------------------
    babip |   1.0000 
          |
          |
     hrip |   0.0197   1.0000 
          |   0.5459
          |
     bbip |   0.0156   0.0404   1.0000 
          |   0.6327   0.2146
          |
    hbpip |   0.0100   0.0229   0.2002   1.0000 
          |   0.7576   0.4811   0.0000
          |
     wpip |   0.0603   0.0021   0.4357   0.1389   1.0000 
          |   0.0635   0.9480   0.0000   0.0000
          |
      kip |   0.0186  -0.2812   0.0719   0.0633   0.1631   1.0000 
          |   0.5685   0.0000   0.0269   0.0513   0.0000

Only a few aspects of pitcher performance are correlated with each other. Strikeouts are negatively correlated with HR's allowed. Hit by pitches and especially wild pitches are positively correlated with walks (and thus weakly correlated with each other as well). Strikeouts are modestly positively correlated with wild pitches ("effectively wild" pitchers?).

Here's how OOTP compares:

Code:

          |    babip     hrip     bbip    hbpip     wpip      kip    gbpct
----------+---------------------------------------------------------------
    babip |   1.0000 
          |
          |
     hrip |   0.0317   1.0000 
          |   0.3559
          |
     bbip |   0.1080  -0.0396   1.0000 
          |   0.0016   0.2491
          |
    hbpip |   0.0728   0.1053   0.1267   1.0000 
          |   0.0340   0.0021   0.0002
          |
     wpip |   0.1409   0.0695   0.2197   0.1270   1.0000 
          |   0.0000   0.0431   0.0000   0.0002
          |
      kip |   0.1581   0.0359   0.1018   0.0098  -0.0257   1.0000 
          |   0.0000   0.2956   0.0030   0.7747   0.4548
          |
    gbpct |   0.1278  -0.3808  -0.0336  -0.0565  -0.0187   0.1236   1.0000 
          |   0.0002   0.0000   0.3279   0.0999   0.5858   0.0003

For some reason, wilder pitchers (more K's, BB's, WP's, and HBP's) seem to allow a higher BABIP, although this may be a statistical artifact (despite the significance levels). Strikeouts, unfortunately, are not a causal factor in home runs allowed. It just makes sense that if a hitter can't make contact, he can't hit it over the fence. But OOTP doesn't model this yet. On the other hand, control is modeled pretty well, with walks correlating pretty strongly with wild pitches (but could be stronger) and less strongly with HBP's. Strikeouts don't correlate with WP's the way they're supposed to, but this is a small matter, because the real-life correlation is pretty small.

The main area to work on seems to be getting high-stuff pitchers to allow fewer HR's. During the beta process, Ronco, Markus, and others discussed changing the "sequence of play" in OOTP. I think Ronco could give a better account of that conversation than I could, because I didn't follow it closely, but I believe OOTP does not determine whether a ball has been successfully put into play before determining whether it is a home run, and Ronco argued that this should be done - it would probably resolve the issue. But there may be a workaround that does the same thing, as Markus argued. Something to consider for '08.

06-02-2007, 02:30 PM	#2
Elendil Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: the dynasty forum Posts: 2,318	So now I do the same with pitchers that I just did with hitters. Here are the statistical categories: babip=Batting Average on Balls in Play Allowed hrip=home runs allowed per inning pitched bbip=walks per inning pitched hbpip=hit by pitches per inning pitched wpip=wild pitches per inning pitched kip=strikeouts per inning pitched gbpct=ground ball percentage (for OOTP sim only) I included only pitchers with at least 162 innings pitched in both the MLB and OOTP samples. Here are the MLB correlations: Code: \| babip hrip bbip hbpip wpip kip ----------+------------------------------------------------------ babip \| 1.0000 \| \| hrip \| 0.0197 1.0000 \| 0.5459 \| bbip \| 0.0156 0.0404 1.0000 \| 0.6327 0.2146 \| hbpip \| 0.0100 0.0229 0.2002 1.0000 \| 0.7576 0.4811 0.0000 \| wpip \| 0.0603 0.0021 0.4357 0.1389 1.0000 \| 0.0635 0.9480 0.0000 0.0000 \| kip \| 0.0186 -0.2812 0.0719 0.0633 0.1631 1.0000 \| 0.5685 0.0000 0.0269 0.0513 0.0000 Only a few aspects of pitcher performance are correlated with each other. Strikeouts are negatively correlated with HR's allowed. Hit by pitches and especially wild pitches are positively correlated with walks (and thus weakly correlated with each other as well). Strikeouts are modestly positively correlated with wild pitches ("effectively wild" pitchers?). Here's how OOTP compares: Code: \| babip hrip bbip hbpip wpip kip gbpct ----------+--------------------------------------------------------------- babip \| 1.0000 \| \| hrip \| 0.0317 1.0000 \| 0.3559 \| bbip \| 0.1080 -0.0396 1.0000 \| 0.0016 0.2491 \| hbpip \| 0.0728 0.1053 0.1267 1.0000 \| 0.0340 0.0021 0.0002 \| wpip \| 0.1409 0.0695 0.2197 0.1270 1.0000 \| 0.0000 0.0431 0.0000 0.0002 \| kip \| 0.1581 0.0359 0.1018 0.0098 -0.0257 1.0000 \| 0.0000 0.2956 0.0030 0.7747 0.4548 \| gbpct \| 0.1278 -0.3808 -0.0336 -0.0565 -0.0187 0.1236 1.0000 \| 0.0002 0.0000 0.3279 0.0999 0.5858 0.0003 For some reason, wilder pitchers (more K's, BB's, WP's, and HBP's) seem to allow a higher BABIP, although this may be a statistical artifact (despite the significance levels). Strikeouts, unfortunately, are not a causal factor in home runs allowed. It just makes sense that if a hitter can't make contact, he can't hit it over the fence. But OOTP doesn't model this yet. On the other hand, control is modeled pretty well, with walks correlating pretty strongly with wild pitches (but could be stronger) and less strongly with HBP's. Strikeouts don't correlate with WP's the way they're supposed to, but this is a small matter, because the real-life correlation is pretty small. The main area to work on seems to be getting high-stuff pitchers to allow fewer HR's. During the beta process, Ronco, Markus, and others discussed changing the "sequence of play" in OOTP. I think Ronco could give a better account of that conversation than I could, because I didn't follow it closely, but I believe OOTP does not determine whether a ball has been successfully put into play before determining whether it is a home run, and Ronco argued that this should be done - it would probably resolve the issue. But there may be a workaround that does the same thing, as Markus argued. Something to consider for '08. __________________ Heaven is kicking back with a double Talisker and a churchwarden stuffed with latakia.