Quote:
Originally Posted by monte213
RonCo, but aren't you essentially achieving the same end game either way? With the potential drops that occur now, your scout is essentially saying "That kid isn't developing like we thought he would and we don't expect as much from him anymore."
Atleast this way, as GMs, we know we have a probable bust on our hands. Maintaining a high potential that is never achieved would be ten times more frustrating. I would imagine that as organizations re-evaluate the talent they have, their expectations of the potential of any given player fluctuates.
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You can say the game achieves the same end, but I would disagree with that. I acknowledge that's partially a personal preference. But in the end, I still keep coming to the what I consider to be a fact--that a real player's true skill/talent rarely changes. Young players still are able to jump the same, and run just as fast, and have the same basic batspeed. They are just as strong as they were. It's just that they never learn how to avoid Ks or their power never comes in. A guy who fails at A ball doesn't leave the game asa worse player than they were in High School (unless they were injured and are just incapable of perfroming as they did).
Ultimately there are two factors at play in the OOTP game: (a) scouting error, and (b) true talent changes. I don't use scouts at all (for reason's I think I've discussed elsewhere). At the end of the day, they really are not necessary, though, as the talent change engine alone is enough to cause draft day busts and booms. In fact, in reality, that's the only thing that is really causing them today--afterall, for a great player to be passed over, all 30 scouting organizations need to miss him by a wide, wide margin...and testing has shown that scouts on the whole are really pretty accurate.
It's always going to be frustrating for owners to have players not pan out, regardless of how they fail. So to some degree this is a YMMV issue. But from the perspective of modelling talent flow through the minors (and feeders, for that matter), my opinion is that the massive talent attrition process causes a lot of issues. So as a modeling person, I would prefer to base my fundamental model on a process that more closely conforms to "real" because it will almost always make a big, messy system like an OOTP environment work better overall.