[injury log]

I was thinking about how prospects are discussed in real life, and was interested to hear how well people feel this is modeled by OOTP. Thinking about the last draft, you had a guy like Drew Stubbs, five tool guy, could be a superstar, but many scouts thought the bat would never come around, your classic high risk, high reward player. Then there's someone like Matt Antonelli, who most scouts thought was a safe bet to be a regular in the majors, but who likely didn't have the upside to be a superstar- a low risk, medium reward guy. Do people think this aspect of prospect evaluation is well modeled in OOTP? Do you judge risk by the distance between current ratings and potential ratings? By age? Would it be interesting (or does this exist already) to have a hidden player development modifier to reflect risk, which affected the chance of improvement in player ratings? Maybe scouts could report risk by giving green lights to safe prospects, yellows to ones in the middle and reds to high risk prospects?

I was also thinking about the types of trades that are common around the trade deadline- a veteran for some low-A pitcher; often the pitchers involved are high risk guys, throw 95mph with no control for example, have a 'projectable' frame, or have a wicked slider but nothing else. In OOTP, I find it hard to figure out which low minors guys are like this, and which are more like the soft tossing finesse guys with no chance of a major league future. Is there a way to identify high risk, high reward pitching prospects? Do height and weight play a role in prospect development? How important is velocity to pitcher development?

In any case, very interested to hear other thoughts about this!