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RonCo · 04-12-2007, 08:30 AM

OOTP is not designed to make 100% of players in a historical environment finish each season with stats within a small tolerance of their actual numbers. It's also not designed to be repeatable from sim-to-sim...or maybe a better way to state this is that the results _are_ repeatable within the framework of randomization. Rollie Fingers, for example, is going to have highly variable results from sim-to-sim due to his relatively low IP. (pure math will tell you that 70-90IP will give a very high standard deviation: a 2.6 ERA pitcher in that number of IP probably has a 15%= chance of registering a 1.5 ERA or better...and a 15% chance of registering a 3.7 ERA or better, for example, by random chance).

In addition to random chance, players will miss targets due to development (assuming it is on) or injury (assuming it is on). Note, these misses can happen both ways. Recalc eases this a bit, but development happens from day 1 of each year. With a few hundred pitchers in a leaague, it is a mathematical sureity that several will take development hits early enough in the season to fade in ways they didn't in real life. It is not predictable from run-to-run which will take the hits...this is the charm of OOTP, it is also the reason for variability between runs. It is a feature of career mode, not a bug.

There are, however, game engine issues affcting this to a degree. We have already hashed out an issue with some pitchers falling off and getting dumped despite reasonable numbers. This is due to ratings dropping past a few key levels, or you could argue it is because of weak GM AI decision code. Either way, it's a known issue--note: It is not a large issue in scope (number of pitchers across an entire league), but it causes some people discomfort. We have also discussed the issue that the Lahman DB import is not really well-tuned to the new development curves. The issues are already TTed, and i'm sure Markus will work on them when he returns.

At the end of the day, this user is bothered by the data he's seeing. I think there are two problems:

1) I think he's re-reporting the issue I described above, and
2) I think he has an improper expectation of repeatability across the scope of a league that the game is able (or designed) to provide.

04-12-2007, 08:30 AM	#29
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,502	OOTP is not designed to make 100% of players in a historical environment finish each season with stats within a small tolerance of their actual numbers. It's also not designed to be repeatable from sim-to-sim...or maybe a better way to state this is that the results _are_ repeatable within the framework of randomization. Rollie Fingers, for example, is going to have highly variable results from sim-to-sim due to his relatively low IP. (pure math will tell you that 70-90IP will give a very high standard deviation: a 2.6 ERA pitcher in that number of IP probably has a 15%= chance of registering a 1.5 ERA or better...and a 15% chance of registering a 3.7 ERA or better, for example, by random chance). In addition to random chance, players will miss targets due to development (assuming it is on) or injury (assuming it is on). Note, these misses can happen both ways. Recalc eases this a bit, but development happens from day 1 of each year. With a few hundred pitchers in a leaague, it is a mathematical sureity that several will take development hits early enough in the season to fade in ways they didn't in real life. It is not predictable from run-to-run which will take the hits...this is the charm of OOTP, it is also the reason for variability between runs. It is a feature of career mode, not a bug. There are, however, game engine issues affcting this to a degree. We have already hashed out an issue with some pitchers falling off and getting dumped despite reasonable numbers. This is due to ratings dropping past a few key levels, or you could argue it is because of weak GM AI decision code. Either way, it's a known issue--note: It is not a large issue in scope (number of pitchers across an entire league), but it causes some people discomfort. We have also discussed the issue that the Lahman DB import is not really well-tuned to the new development curves. The issues are already TTed, and i'm sure Markus will work on them when he returns. At the end of the day, this user is bothered by the data he's seeing. I think there are two problems: 1) I think he's re-reporting the issue I described above, and 2) I think he has an improper expectation of repeatability across the scope of a league that the game is able (or designed) to provide.