[pstrickert]

I know a lot of people rave about the historical results for this version of OOTP. I agree the game is improved in that respect over 2006. However, I still think it leaves a lot to be desired. I'm surprised more people have not noticed the flaws in the historical aspect of the game.

Here's what I decided to do. I imported the 1982 MLB season from the Lahman DB. I turned Coaching off, Scouts off, Financials off, Amateur Draft off, Morale off, Personality off. I disabled player development. I kept injuries on and trading on. I set the Ratings Recalc to 1 year. I turned off the option to auto adjust league total modifiers after each season. (I'm not sure how those last two options would matter anyhow, since I only simmed the 1982 season to the playoffs.)

I decided to focus on 8 players for the Milwaukee Brewers: Moose Haas, Pete Vuckovich, Mike Caldwell, Rollie Fingers, Gorman Thomas, Jim Gantner, Robin Yount, and Ed Romero. I then simmed the 1982 season and looked at the stats for these 8 players. Then I did everything all over again. I imported the 1982 MLB season from Lahman DB and set the options exactly as I had before. I did this five different times.

What would you expect to happen? Maybe I'm wrong, but I expected the ratings and stats to be reasonably consistent from one sim to the next. Here are the results:

MOOSE HAAS
Real Life: 193.1 IP, 11-8, 4.47
Sim 1: 255.2, 14-12, 2.68
Sim 2: 247.2, 18-12, 3.96
Sim 3: 259.2, 15-13, 3.71
Sim 4: 253.2, 20-8, 3.55
Sim 5: 246, 22-5, 2.74

Haas received a 4-1/2 star rating each and every time.

COMMENT: Notice that his ERA in every case was lower than his RL ERA. Notice also that his ERA ranged from 2.68 to 3.96. That's not very consistent. Notice also that he pitched a lot more innings in the sims than IRL.

PETE VUCKOVICH
Real Life: 223.2 IP, 18-6, 3.34 (Cy Young Award)
Sim 1: 144.2, 4-10, 4.42
Sim 2: 249.1, 20-10, 3.72
Sim 3: 94, 1-6, 5.74 (he lost his starting role due to ineffectiveness, not injury)
Sim 4: 194.2, 16-6, 3.10
Sim 5: 231.1, 16-7, 2.68

Vuckovich received a 1 star rating every time, except for Sim 2 in which he received a 1-1/2 star rating. Who knows why?

COMMENT: I have no idea how to explain the radically different results from one sim to the next.


MIKE CALDWELL
Real Life: 258 IP, 17-13, 3.91
Sim 1: 235.1, 16-11, 4.28
Sim 2: 148.1, 9-4, 3.64
Sim 3: 191.1, 14-7, 3.53
Sim 4: 216.1, 13-9, 4.24
Sim 5: 200, 18-3, 2.92

Caldwell received a 1-1/2 star rating in the first and fourth sim. In the other three sims, he received only 1 star.

COMMENT: For a pitcher with such low ratings, he actually performed fairly well. In fact, his Sim 5 record was Cy Young quality.


ROLLIE FINGERS
Real Life: 79.2 IP, 5-6, 29 SV, 2.60
Sim 1: 62.1, 6-5, 33, 3.03
Sim 2: 50.1, 4-4, 33, 2.86
Sim 3: 57.1, 6-6, 31, 1.88
Sim 4: 65.1, 3-6, 42, 2.89
Sim 5: 61.1, 4-5, 49, 3.52

Fingers received a 4-star rating for every sim, except the first in which he received 4-1/2 stars.

COMMENT: His ERAs ranged from 1.88 to 3.52. Now a historical simmer might see a career ERA near 2.60 and conclude that OOTP does a great job producing historically accurate results. I look at the numbers and think it's a crapshoot on a single season basis.


GORMAN THOMAS
Real Life: 567 AB, 39 HR, 112 RBI, .245 BA, .343 OBA, .506 SLG
Sim 1: 576, 35, 106, .236, .330, .464
Sim 2: 549, 37, 96, .260, .348, .492
Sim 3: 186, 12, 26, .237, .313, .462 (CEI)
Sim 4: 519, 25, 73, .245, .328, .443
Sim 5: 586, 29, 83, .239, .307, .423

Thomas received 4 stars in the first, second, and fourth sims, 4-1/2 stars in the other two.

COMMENT: BA looked reasonable, but his power numbers were lower than expected.


JIM GANTNER
Real Life: 447 AB, 4 HR, 43 RBI, .295 BA, .335 OBA, .369 SLG
Sim 1: 387, 2, 36, .274, .320, .331
Sim 2: 669, 8, 61, .294, .331, .366
Sim 3: 681, 7, 78, .289, .316, .376
Sim 4: 549, 1, 67, .330, .353, .413
Sim 5: 677, 2, 57, .257, .288, .316

Gantner received a 3-1/2 star rating for every sim, except for Sim 4 when he received 4 stars.

COMMENT: BA ranged from .257 to .330. That's quite uneven.


ROBIN YOUNT
Real Life: 635, 29, 114, .331, .379, .578
Sim 1: 684, 8, 83, .289, .334, .418
Sim 2: 656, 18, 111, .360, .401, 546
Sim 3: 593, 18, 90, .309, .352, .501
Sim 4: 625, 14, 85, .317, .372, .474
Sim 5: 613, 21, 115, .297, .359, .475

Yount received a 5-star rating every time.

COMMENT: He batted below average 4 times out of 5 (14-43 points below average). He batted 29 points above his RL average the other time. Go figure. His power production was well below his real life numbers.


ED ROMERO
Real Life: 144, 1, 7, .250, .289, .326
Sim 1: 517, 12, 53, .242, .284, .360
Sim 2: 559, 5, 61, .272, .307, .372
Sim 3: 232, 5, 23, .246, .275, .375
Sim 4: 590, 11, 76, .275, .314, .398
Sim 5: 433, 10, 78, .330, .362, .462

Romero was rated 1 star every time.

COMMENT: For some reason, the OOTP AI loved Ed Romero. He got a lot of playing time at 2B (with Jim Gantner, for some reason, being assigned to be the starting 3Bman). Don't ask me why. His BA ranged from .242 to .330. Nothing consistent about that. He also showed a lot more power than IRL.

I deliberately gave this thread a provocative title. I think OOTP's a great game. I'm pleased with the vast improvements. But I cringe a bit when I hear people boast about the historical accuracy of the sim results. Maybe the sim totals for the great players work out OK in the end. But I'm not seeing such good results when I look at things up close.

Thoughts? Theories? Suggestions?