</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by Peter Bergstrom:
<strong> </font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">I agree with your figures Peter, but the last-at-bat more than covers for this statistic... remember we're talking about a turn-based game here, not a clock-based game. </font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Therefore, accumulated season stats from the game should bear out the force of this factor. My- inexhaustive- sampling showed that the home/away split averages out to roughly 50-50. Sorry, this doesn't reflect reality.</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Do you recall your last suggestion to change all home team pitchers ratings so that they perform better at home? (I keep posting these stats since you've never responded to them and keep harping on statements indicating players perform better at home than on the road)
How can you support that notion when basic research indicates that this is not reflective of reality? Even worse it could skew stats, as they do not necessarily balance out over the course of a season as you stated that it would:
From the Earlier Threads
I took one team (Boston) and used the three year averages (1999-2001) of each pitcher on the squad the results are presented here:
*
3 year splits missing last years stats presented
</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">
Name Hm Av Hm ERA Hm IP Rd Av Rd ERA Rd IP
Arrojo .295 5.48 226.2 .243 2.31 190.0
Banks* .000 0.00 4.0 .192 1.35 6.2
Burkett .297 5.30 231.0 .253 3.43 270.0
Castillo .257 4.61 125.0 .227 3.31 149.2
Crawford .288 6.21 29.0 .237 2.50 36.0
Fossum .211 4.01 24.2 .312 5.95 19.2
Garces* .221 3.86 35.0 .217 3.94 32.0
Hermanson .274 3.95 305.2 .277 3.98 301.0
Lowe .254 2.70 146.2 .241 3.09 145.2
Martinez .196 2.16 270.1 .182 1.85 276.2
Oliver .290 5.48 213.2 .303 2.70 244.2
Urbina* .243 3.25 36.0 .217 4.11 30.2
Wakefield .275 4.58 232.0 .248 5.00 236.0
Wallace* .279 4.84 22.1 .192 2.25 28.0</pre><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Before you complain "well Fenway is a hitters park" notice that the pitcher who've spent significant amounts of the time shown not on the Sox (Burkett, Castillo, Hermanson, Oliver, Urbina, Wallace) show no evidence of being better at home either.
You'll also notice some pitchers (Arrojo, Burkett, Castillo, Oliver) do indeed have a big enough split between times pitching at home and times pitching on the road to skew the statistical results.