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Old 03-25-2007, 03:24 PM   #36
Raidergoo
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Join Date: Mar 2003
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Scouting error is working as designed. This was looked at. Here's some data.

Code:
Error avg		0.129190882	13% is the error average for SISA		
Max error		29			
					
				    Years Pro	   Error average/rating	       Error %	      Players
For 0 Pro years players: 		0		0.179071141		18%		138  
For 1 Pro years players:		1		0.144380262		15%		138
For 2 Pro years players:		2		0.159432522		16%		160
For 3 Pro years players:		3		0.113848504		11%		185
For 4 Pro years players:		4		0.137739045		13%		168
For 5 Pro years players:		5		0.114065694		11%		169
For 6 Pro years players:		6		0.140923622		11%		63
For 7 Pro years players:		7		0.116287087		11%		47
For 8 Pro years players:		8		0.099825567	 	9%		35
For 9 Pro years players:		9		0.054448421	 	5%		25
For 10 Pro years players:		10		0.042398696	 	4%		12
For 10+ Pro years players:		10+		0.029110581	 	3%		59

Code:
		SISA		100 Scout	75 Scout	50 Scout
Error Avg	3.867132867	1.251748252	2.839160839	5.958041958
Error Max	27		6		21		29

Here are some operating theories behind scouting. The older, more established players will have more accurate evaluations. The higher rated scouts will be more accurate. Never trust a single scouting report; cross check everything and everyone, then do it again. Scouts will rarely underestimate talent, but will overestimate talent.
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