Quote:
Originally posted by crackpott
For what it's worth Rockze, as long as you refrain from saying I'm "stupid for my view" or whatever, I'll have a civil argument.
As for your numbers... no one is arguing against them. That's why everyone is confused by you "proving your point" Allow me to elaborate.
Allow us to assume that this is over 600 PA. Your High OBP/Low SLG guy will be player one. The other guy player 2. Problem is we have to assume a walk rate for these calculations. Lets assume each player draws 50 walks, and has 30 other situations which contribute to a plate appearance, but not an at bat.
Player one gets on base 234 times, and hits 6 homeruns. Player two gets on 156 times and hits 36 homeruns. Assuming that all other aspects are the same since these were the only stats you mentioned (ie. doubles)...
this is roughly what it translates to. Player one has an impressive .390 OBP. Player two has a weak .260 OBP. 36 homers or not, that guy won't be in the majors. But anyway...
there would be roughly 520 AB. Now, using the numbers given by you, player one has 234-50=184 hits. Player two has 156-50 = 106 hits. That is a difference of 78. assuming extra base hits to be equal (you only provided homeruns) the 30 extra homeruns player two will get translates to 30*3 (extra bases) = 90. Therefore, the SLG of player 2 will be roughly 12 points greater than player one.
Thus, your comparison failed. Player one would have an OPS of a whopping .118 more than player 2... and that's not even using OBP adjusted OPS, which would make the difference even greater. So in summary... I'm not quite sure what it is you were proving.
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The two examples I gave aren't just made up players. The one that hit a home run 6% o fthe time was Alfonso Soriano and the second that hit one 1% of the time was Ichiro. Their OPSs were .880 and .813 respectively. So no, whatever calcluations you just performed didn't make any sense. My calculations did not fail.
I am trying to prove that hitting home runs and having a high OPS is not essential at the top of the order. Players have roles. Leadoff hitters do not necessarily have to have an OPS near .900 to be good. Having an OBP around .400 and a SLG around .350 makes for a great leadoff hitter. Even better so than a guy with a .320 OBP and a .500 SLG.
Why do you think managers stack their lineups the way they do. There are 30 other people (. . .maybe more. . .) that think the way I do. I don't think it's just a coincidence.