OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Players hitting the wall before big milestones

fhomess · 12-19-2006, 08:02 PM

Sorry, this is long...
I think another approach to the milestone question is to look at the types of milestones that players in MLB have seemingly held on to cross. Let's look at career HR's since that started the discussion.

I'm not going to go below Dave Winfield because the next retired player is Jose Canseco, who claims to be blackballed, and Yaz, who had 452. Yaz hadn't hit 30 HR's in a season in over 10 years, let alone 40. At age 43, he didn't really have the ability to last another 3-4 seasons it would've taken him to get to 500 even if he played well.

28. Dave Winfield - 465 - Mr. May wasn't really all that close with his final 5 HR totals being 28-26-21-10-2. Of course, he was OLD, too, retiring after his age 43 season.

27/26. Manny Ramirez/Jim Thome - both still active

24t. Stan Musial - 475 - Musial pretty clearly did NOT try to keep his career going to reach 500. He was already 42 when he hit 12 HR's in his final season for the Cards. His final 5 season HR totals do not show a significant decline, and they don't show an ability to have reached 500 in another year or two either. They were very consistent over that time period: 14-17-15-19-12.

24t. Willie Stargell - 475 - Stargell was clearly a player who stayed in the game after his skills had diminished. He hit 28-32-11-0-3 HR's in his final 5 seasons. Looking at those numbers, he was at 461 after he hit 32 HR's at age 39 and tied with Keith Hernandez as the 1979 NL MVP. No one's going to retire after an MVP season, so it's no surprise he stuck around at age 40 in 1980, although he got less than half as many AB's after a knee injury basically ended his ability to play.

23 - Frank Thomas - 487 - Still active.

21t. Fred McGriff - 493 - I think it's well known that McGriff was trying to get another job to cross the 500 HR plateau but simply couldn't get a contract from anyone. His last 5 seasons he hit 27-31-30-13-2.

21t. Lou Gehrig - 493 - We all know he retired because of his health. His last 5 seasons he hit 49-30-49-37-29-0. Ok, that's 6 seasons, but he only played 8 games in 1939.

20. Eddie Murray - 504 - Murray actually crossed the 500 HR plateau in his 2nd to last season (1996), with his final 5 season HR totals as follows: 27-17-21-22-3. I don't think his 1996 season was all that bad considering he posted an 87 OPS+ after a 130 OPS+ the season before.

19. Mel Ott - 511 - Ott looks like he tried to keep playing after his skills had declined, but it wasn't to reach 500 HR's. He posted a 150 OPS+ the year he hit #500. His last 5 seasons look like this: 18-26-21-1-0. He definitely fell off a ledge after age 36. I don't know enough about his history to know if it was injury related or not.

17t. Eddie Matthews - 512 - Matthews was better than league average every year except his last, when he posted a 98 OPS+ in limited time. His final 5 seasons his HR numbers were: 23-32-16-16-3, so he crossed 500 two years before he retired. His OPS+ during those two 16 HR seasons was lower than his career average, but there were still around 110. I don't get the impression from his stats that he was holding on, or that any particular injury caused him to stop playing, and his gradual descent emphasizes that in stark contrast to Ott.

17t. Ernie Banks - 512 - Banks was an All-Star and finished 12th in MVP voting during his age 38 season when he broke 500 HR's. His final 5 season HR's were: 23-32-23-12-3.

15t. Ted Williams - 521 - Williams is an interesting case because of two reasons: 1. He very clearly did not need to hit 500 HR's to get into the HOF. 2. He reached 500 HR's in his final season and then hung 'em up. The man posted a 189 OPS+ in his final season. His final 5 season HR totals were 24-38-26-10-29. Of course, he was 41 during that final year and would have reached 500 much earlier if not for his time serving his country. There's also the case of the fact that Williams was a prideful man who didn't want to be remembered for his 1959 season (10 HR's were a career low). He'd had a neck injury that caused his play to suffer and Tom Yawkey suggested he retired. Naturally, he came back and had another great season retiring after a final at-bat HR and another fine year. Williams didn't hold on for 500 HR's. He held on for pride.

15t. Willie McCovey - 521 - McCovey his his 500th in his 3rd to last season, with his final 5 seasons of HR's being 7-28-12-15-1. He wasn't really that good anymore, although he still played somewhat regularly. Given his numbers, I think it's actually a little more surprising that he didn't retire after the season the year he hit his 500th.

14. Jimmie Foxx - 534 - Foxx's last few seasons were decidedly low on HR's, as he went 36-19-8-0-7. He was #2 in HR's at the time.

Beyond Foxx you get to Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, and Reggie Jackson, none of whom can really be argued held on to get to 500.

So... moral of the story, it doesn't seem like there have been very many players who held on to try to reach 500 HR's. Throughout most of MLB history, the 500 HR plateau wasn't really something most players had the option of trying to hold on to get to, with McGriff being one guy of note who wanted to but couldn't. For those of you curious, there are 12 players who retired with between 380 and 400 HR's. 4 of them had between 395 and 400 HR's and at least 3 of those would've been a good bet to get to 400 if they'd stuck around for another season. Notably, Al Kaline and Andres Galarraga both retired at 399.

If you look at the career wins leaderboard for pitchers, it's pretty clear that more players held on to try to reach 300 wins than those who tried to reach 500 HR's. We've also got about the same number of players in each group. Early Wynn looks like a great example, with his one and only win in 1963 (his final year) being win #300.

One thing that struck me when thinking about it was that the 300 win plateau was established as a level of excellence far earlier in the century than the 500 HR plateau. 500 HR's was broken by just a couple of guys until the 1960's. Many of the 300 win guys had done so by the 1930's. It used to be that 500 HR's was considered the same way we now consider 600 HR's. You don't have to get to 600 HR's to be considered a pretty dang good hitter. Getting to 600 is like icing on the cake. The same used to be true of 500 HR's, but after the 1990's it's not so much the case anymore.

12-19-2006, 08:02 PM	#10
fhomess Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 3,678	Sorry, this is long... I think another approach to the milestone question is to look at the types of milestones that players in MLB have seemingly held on to cross. Let's look at career HR's since that started the discussion. I'm not going to go below Dave Winfield because the next retired player is Jose Canseco, who claims to be blackballed, and Yaz, who had 452. Yaz hadn't hit 30 HR's in a season in over 10 years, let alone 40. At age 43, he didn't really have the ability to last another 3-4 seasons it would've taken him to get to 500 even if he played well. 28. Dave Winfield - 465 - Mr. May wasn't really all that close with his final 5 HR totals being 28-26-21-10-2. Of course, he was OLD, too, retiring after his age 43 season. 27/26. Manny Ramirez/Jim Thome - both still active 24t. Stan Musial - 475 - Musial pretty clearly did NOT try to keep his career going to reach 500. He was already 42 when he hit 12 HR's in his final season for the Cards. His final 5 season HR totals do not show a significant decline, and they don't show an ability to have reached 500 in another year or two either. They were very consistent over that time period: 14-17-15-19-12. 24t. Willie Stargell - 475 - Stargell was clearly a player who stayed in the game after his skills had diminished. He hit 28-32-11-0-3 HR's in his final 5 seasons. Looking at those numbers, he was at 461 after he hit 32 HR's at age 39 and tied with Keith Hernandez as the 1979 NL MVP. No one's going to retire after an MVP season, so it's no surprise he stuck around at age 40 in 1980, although he got less than half as many AB's after a knee injury basically ended his ability to play. 23 - Frank Thomas - 487 - Still active. 21t. Fred McGriff - 493 - I think it's well known that McGriff was trying to get another job to cross the 500 HR plateau but simply couldn't get a contract from anyone. His last 5 seasons he hit 27-31-30-13-2. 21t. Lou Gehrig - 493 - We all know he retired because of his health. His last 5 seasons he hit 49-30-49-37-29-0. Ok, that's 6 seasons, but he only played 8 games in 1939. 20. Eddie Murray - 504 - Murray actually crossed the 500 HR plateau in his 2nd to last season (1996), with his final 5 season HR totals as follows: 27-17-21-22-3. I don't think his 1996 season was all that bad considering he posted an 87 OPS+ after a 130 OPS+ the season before. 19. Mel Ott - 511 - Ott looks like he tried to keep playing after his skills had declined, but it wasn't to reach 500 HR's. He posted a 150 OPS+ the year he hit #500. His last 5 seasons look like this: 18-26-21-1-0. He definitely fell off a ledge after age 36. I don't know enough about his history to know if it was injury related or not. 17t. Eddie Matthews - 512 - Matthews was better than league average every year except his last, when he posted a 98 OPS+ in limited time. His final 5 seasons his HR numbers were: 23-32-16-16-3, so he crossed 500 two years before he retired. His OPS+ during those two 16 HR seasons was lower than his career average, but there were still around 110. I don't get the impression from his stats that he was holding on, or that any particular injury caused him to stop playing, and his gradual descent emphasizes that in stark contrast to Ott. 17t. Ernie Banks - 512 - Banks was an All-Star and finished 12th in MVP voting during his age 38 season when he broke 500 HR's. His final 5 season HR's were: 23-32-23-12-3. 15t. Ted Williams - 521 - Williams is an interesting case because of two reasons: 1. He very clearly did not need to hit 500 HR's to get into the HOF. 2. He reached 500 HR's in his final season and then hung 'em up. The man posted a 189 OPS+ in his final season. His final 5 season HR totals were 24-38-26-10-29. Of course, he was 41 during that final year and would have reached 500 much earlier if not for his time serving his country. There's also the case of the fact that Williams was a prideful man who didn't want to be remembered for his 1959 season (10 HR's were a career low). He'd had a neck injury that caused his play to suffer and Tom Yawkey suggested he retired. Naturally, he came back and had another great season retiring after a final at-bat HR and another fine year. Williams didn't hold on for 500 HR's. He held on for pride. 15t. Willie McCovey - 521 - McCovey his his 500th in his 3rd to last season, with his final 5 seasons of HR's being 7-28-12-15-1. He wasn't really that good anymore, although he still played somewhat regularly. Given his numbers, I think it's actually a little more surprising that he didn't retire after the season the year he hit his 500th. 14. Jimmie Foxx - 534 - Foxx's last few seasons were decidedly low on HR's, as he went 36-19-8-0-7. He was #2 in HR's at the time. Beyond Foxx you get to Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, and Reggie Jackson, none of whom can really be argued held on to get to 500. So... moral of the story, it doesn't seem like there have been very many players who held on to try to reach 500 HR's. Throughout most of MLB history, the 500 HR plateau wasn't really something most players had the option of trying to hold on to get to, with McGriff being one guy of note who wanted to but couldn't. For those of you curious, there are 12 players who retired with between 380 and 400 HR's. 4 of them had between 395 and 400 HR's and at least 3 of those would've been a good bet to get to 400 if they'd stuck around for another season. Notably, Al Kaline and Andres Galarraga both retired at 399. If you look at the career wins leaderboard for pitchers, it's pretty clear that more players held on to try to reach 300 wins than those who tried to reach 500 HR's. We've also got about the same number of players in each group. Early Wynn looks like a great example, with his one and only win in 1963 (his final year) being win #300. One thing that struck me when thinking about it was that the 300 win plateau was established as a level of excellence far earlier in the century than the 500 HR plateau. 500 HR's was broken by just a couple of guys until the 1960's. Many of the 300 win guys had done so by the 1930's. It used to be that 500 HR's was considered the same way we now consider 600 HR's. You don't have to get to 600 HR's to be considered a pretty dang good hitter. Getting to 600 is like icing on the cake. The same used to be true of 500 HR's, but after the 1990's it's not so much the case anymore. __________________ StatsLab- PHP/MySQL based utilities for Online Leagues Baseball Cards - Full list of known templates and documentation on card development.