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zonk84 · 12-13-2006, 10:10 PM

I have a 3B -- likely to end up in as the best hitter in my league's history -- whose 10 year deal is about to end (after next season). If there had been a way to offer the kid a 15 year deal, I would have -- and I'd also be a happy GM right now.

What's more -- he was the perfect case study in the type of guy that seems to just fall off a cliff.... 17 .yo. 4th overall pick... never put up good minor league numbers (in fact, they're frankly awful... except for his last 6 weeks in AAA). Offseason when he turns 20, somthing just "clicks" -- and it's obvious by May I have to bring him hip. He wins the ROY -- comes thisclose to winning the triple crown -- as well as MVP. Next year, he DOES win the triple crown. Year 3 just misses a back-to-back TC, but picks up another MVP. 20s across the board in talent, something like 100/100/100/80/90 in ratings.

I decide to see if perhaps I can buy out his arb years plus a few FA years... I decide to start high -- 10 years/100 mil... he's interersted, but not quite there... I jack it up, throw in some escalators later in the contract (another item you'd think would flag him for destruction) -- he signs a 10 year/125 mil contract.

Fast forward to year 9 of the deal... he's won 2 more triple crowns, 4 more MVPs (beaten by teammates in all but 1 year he doesn't win), has hit 60+ HRs 3 times, 50+ 7 times, has a career OPS of something like 1.100... he just turned 30 -- and also just hit his 600th HR.

I don't know how I'm gonna pay the guy next year, but he's certainly been worth every penny -- and never a stray little wander into player editor, either. I play with scouts -- and while they all love him, I honestly could not tell you what his "real" ratings ever were.

The counter to the "long term contract sure sign he'll blow" is that it's exceedingly rare to see the types of deals like the one I have above offered, much less accepted... Most guys are never gonna sell out 4 years of FA, right in their prime --- in exchange for buying out 3 years of arbitration.

12-13-2006, 10:10 PM	#6
zonk84 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 263	Anecdotal... I have a 3B -- likely to end up in as the best hitter in my league's history -- whose 10 year deal is about to end (after next season). If there had been a way to offer the kid a 15 year deal, I would have -- and I'd also be a happy GM right now. What's more -- he was the perfect case study in the type of guy that seems to just fall off a cliff.... 17 .yo. 4th overall pick... never put up good minor league numbers (in fact, they're frankly awful... except for his last 6 weeks in AAA). Offseason when he turns 20, somthing just "clicks" -- and it's obvious by May I have to bring him hip. He wins the ROY -- comes thisclose to winning the triple crown -- as well as MVP. Next year, he DOES win the triple crown. Year 3 just misses a back-to-back TC, but picks up another MVP. 20s across the board in talent, something like 100/100/100/80/90 in ratings. I decide to see if perhaps I can buy out his arb years plus a few FA years... I decide to start high -- 10 years/100 mil... he's interersted, but not quite there... I jack it up, throw in some escalators later in the contract (another item you'd think would flag him for destruction) -- he signs a 10 year/125 mil contract. Fast forward to year 9 of the deal... he's won 2 more triple crowns, 4 more MVPs (beaten by teammates in all but 1 year he doesn't win), has hit 60+ HRs 3 times, 50+ 7 times, has a career OPS of something like 1.100... he just turned 30 -- and also just hit his 600th HR. I don't know how I'm gonna pay the guy next year, but he's certainly been worth every penny -- and never a stray little wander into player editor, either. I play with scouts -- and while they all love him, I honestly could not tell you what his "real" ratings ever were. The counter to the "long term contract sure sign he'll blow" is that it's exceedingly rare to see the types of deals like the one I have above offered, much less accepted... Most guys are never gonna sell out 4 years of FA, right in their prime --- in exchange for buying out 3 years of arbitration.