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fhomess · 09-22-2006, 01:52 PM

If you knew exactly when to leave a pitcher in and when to take him out, you could make a lot of money as a major league pitching coach. That said, the situation and the score of the game should give you an idea of whether or not to trust your pitcher. In real life, the decision is not just based on the score but also on specific batter-pitcher match-ups.

I'm of the opinion that you shouldn't consider pulling a starting pitcher until he starts to struggle or gets hurt. Relievers are different because they're often best in particular situations, like a lefty who's great against left handed batters but gets hit hard against righties. Starters usually don't last as starters if they struggle that much against half the population of hitters, and as long as they're pitching fine, don't worry about the pitch count too much.

Anyway, once a pitcher starts to struggle, you have two options. Pull him for a reliever, or let him pitch and hope he gets out of whatever situation he's gotten himself into. How much you let him struggle is based on a number of things, the score being one of the biggest keys. How much is he "struggling"? Did he give up a couple of bloop singles or were those last three hits screaming liners into the gap? The prior might indicate that he's fine but the other team is just getting lucky. Who's coming up next? Does the next batter already have 3 hits against him today or is he 0 for 3 with 3 strikeouts? Will he be facing the bottom of the order or the other team's best hitters?

As you can see, there's a lot to take into account. My baseball manager used to tell me that a good lead off of first base was as far as I could get off without getting picked off by the pitcher. Of course, if I never get picked off, then maybe I haven't gone as far as I can go. Once I get picked off I know how far is too far, so I can then cut it back a little and know I'm ok. I'd say the same applies to keeping starters in. Sometimes, you have to leave them in the game longer just to see what keys will indicate they're no longer going to be successful in that game. There's always the possibility that they still have the ability to do fine but are just getting hit because that's the nature of the game.

09-22-2006, 01:52 PM	#47
fhomess Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 3,693	If you knew exactly when to leave a pitcher in and when to take him out, you could make a lot of money as a major league pitching coach. That said, the situation and the score of the game should give you an idea of whether or not to trust your pitcher. In real life, the decision is not just based on the score but also on specific batter-pitcher match-ups. I'm of the opinion that you shouldn't consider pulling a starting pitcher until he starts to struggle or gets hurt. Relievers are different because they're often best in particular situations, like a lefty who's great against left handed batters but gets hit hard against righties. Starters usually don't last as starters if they struggle that much against half the population of hitters, and as long as they're pitching fine, don't worry about the pitch count too much. Anyway, once a pitcher starts to struggle, you have two options. Pull him for a reliever, or let him pitch and hope he gets out of whatever situation he's gotten himself into. How much you let him struggle is based on a number of things, the score being one of the biggest keys. How much is he "struggling"? Did he give up a couple of bloop singles or were those last three hits screaming liners into the gap? The prior might indicate that he's fine but the other team is just getting lucky. Who's coming up next? Does the next batter already have 3 hits against him today or is he 0 for 3 with 3 strikeouts? Will he be facing the bottom of the order or the other team's best hitters? As you can see, there's a lot to take into account. My baseball manager used to tell me that a good lead off of first base was as far as I could get off without getting picked off by the pitcher. Of course, if I never get picked off, then maybe I haven't gone as far as I can go. Once I get picked off I know how far is too far, so I can then cut it back a little and know I'm ok. I'd say the same applies to keeping starters in. Sometimes, you have to leave them in the game longer just to see what keys will indicate they're no longer going to be successful in that game. There's always the possibility that they still have the ability to do fine but are just getting hit because that's the nature of the game. __________________ StatsLab- PHP/MySQL based utilities for Online Leagues Baseball Cards - Full list of known templates and documentation on card development.