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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn
1) Not true, in my tests the league totals for IBB were usually in line with real life numbers.
2) Not true either, the frequencies match the ones in my retrosheet play-by-play analysis.
3) That just got tweaked.
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I believe the overall frequency of Intentional Walks is in line with norms, but the situations in which they are issued are not. Rarely do you see the batter walked with 2 outs to get a favorable match up as happens in real life; i.e. 8th place hitter walked to get to the pitcher or a righty walked to get to a lefty. The AI seems to ALWAYS walk a batter with 1st open and less than two out to set up a double play, regardless of whether this puts the winning run on base or at the plate.
I believe the same is true of the stolen base totals. Overall, they can be normalized, but runners are much more apt to try for third than they are for second, which is the exact opposite of real life. (A steal of third, while statistically easier to accomplish, holds a much higher failure cost). Especially, with two outs, runners should be much less ready to take off for third.