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Originally Posted by Willmore
True, but we are talking about one half of a season and in 2004, he had 8.5 K/9 before the all-star break in 10 starts. And in the minors he had a 7.11 K/9 that same year.
Yes, but all of his periphs are better than their 2004 counterparts, less hits, less walks, less HRs, more Ks
Somewhat true. His DIPS this year is at 4.37. And improvement over last year's 5.17 and 2004 and 2003's 4.84, but not better than his 2000 season of 4.34 DIPS. That was before his injury. Is he back to that level of performance ? Maybe. What does that mean ? He's an average to above-average pitcher.
That's all I'm claiming him to be, an average AL pitcher (above-average overall)
Not true. Since his May 30th start against the Rangers, when he allowed 6 ER in 5.1 innings, he has had 7 starts. Of which 6 were pretty good. In the span of the 7 starts, he pitched against the Royals, the D-backs, the Giants, the Padres and the Angels twice. Those 6 starts were against some the most inept offenses in the majors. 3 of the teams are from the NL, and they have shown during interleague play that NL teams are inferior to AL teams. So you basically had bad offensive NL teams playing against an average AL team. What do you think was supposed to happen ?
You cherry picked your timeline and then use that to refute my point? No. Take his last 16 starts, half his season. 107IP, 98H, 42ER, 14HR, 40BB, 90K, 8.2H/9, 1.16 HR/9, 3.36 BB/9, 7.57 SO/9, 2.25 SO/BB and includes 2 starts against Det, a start at the White Sox, a start at Texas, a start at TB, etc.
And Meche has had good and bad stretches before, just look at his pre- and post-all star game splits from year to year. 3.61 ERA before the break in 2003, 6+ ERA after. 7+ ERA before the break in 2004, 3.95 after the break.
You're relying on ERA there, check the periphs. They weren't as good as they are now
Meche is a streaky pitcher and unless he finishes the year with a sub-4 ERA this year, he's an average pitcher in my eyes.
An average AL pitcher is still better than he's being represented in the game, that's my WHOLE point
No, his stuff is great right now. And he has always had potential for good stuff, but has rarely shown it. Unreached potential is nothing, and until now Meche has been nothing. One can not substitute reason with hope when looking at a pitcher with potential.
You are misunderstanding what stuff implies. Meche has always had good individual pitches. His curve and fastball are no different now than they were 3 years ago. What he didn't have was any mental clue of how to pitch and mechanics that hid the ball. I can't vouch for any mental turnaround, but I can vouch for a change in his mechanics that now has him hiding the ball MUCH more than ever before. There's video evidence of this.
And isn't it convenient that his first healthy season is right before he is due to become a multi-millionaire 30 times over ? There will be a team out there that will look at a "finally healthy" 27-year old, who still has potential to become pretty good and will give him a 4-year, 40+ mil deal. It's going to happen. And Meche knows it, so when he might have complained about a sore back last year, he's going to tough it out and pitch his best right now.
Meche is a power pitcher, who gets hurt often and unlike some of the other power pitchers, he complains about it. He does not show the heart, the desire or any other mental characteristics that might signal to me, or anyone else that he has the mentality to be a good starter.
This is speculation. How many other pitchers went through the type of shoulder surgery Meche did? Guess what? It's a REALLY small number. The best comp is Chris Carpenter, who, shockingly, also took 2 years or so of struggling before regaining his health in full.
As soon as he starts to struggle, he'll have an excuse ready, you just wait and see.
I've watched him pitch, I'm a Mariners fan, and he has pitched differently, but it's means little. He has yet to show consistency over the course of the season, see my previous points on that.
Actually, he's been pretty consistant except for the tremendous June he's been your classic mid 4 ERA pitcher every other month. That's all I'm asking for in adjustment. Right now, he's rated as an above 5 ERA pitcher.
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