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FWIW, IRL players tend to steal third with a success rate around 5% higher than when they steal second. A lot of that is due to selection bias; players are *far* more selective as to when they steal third as opposed to second. Another much smaller factor is that it's really, really hard to hold a man on second compared to first. Yes, pitchers can fake a move without getting called for a balk, but even so he has to wheel around 180 degrees to do so.
If my league had guys successfully stealing 3rd 70% of the time when my league was stealing other bases with the same rate, and I knew it was statistically significant, I might complain that steals of 3rd are too hard.
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