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Old 04-16-2006, 01:35 PM   #23
mcgsports
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 203
They must exist based on all the seasons that
I have run
The .690 and .960 OPS are perfect example
As proof imagine that you imported
Ted Williams and he retires with 10000 atbats!
If he has .960 OPS you think life is ok
But if he has .690 OPS and no injurys and
No rating changes then you know the game must be
broken
Randomness can lead to one season of .690 OPS
for superstar but not a full career
I dont want to do the math now and also
we might have slightly different assumptions
but basically if you have two guys with identical
ratings and that many atbats then its nearly impossible for OPS
To difference by more than 250 points!!!
Not saying Markus is lying but I think he avert
the issue somewhat perhaps by defining hidden ratings
Different than I would
I believe there is no hidden average or homer rating
But there is hidden fatigue and streak and clutch and whatnot
that if not tweaked properly could lead to
a 3000 game streak if you will where a player
over performs his ratings many times more
often than truly random chance
Would allow!!!!!!
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