Classic Questions Series: 4 Man vs. 5 Man Rotations
I give a small apology in advance- I realize that this is most likely a pretty common question. I did a search for similar topics, but found nothing that gave me the exact specifics that I'm looking for.
I'll try to give you the question straight up, and add the specifics after. In the post-1980 era, using a mixture of real and fictional players (the case with most internet leagues after a few seasons), what are the benefits and drawbacks to using a four-man rotation over a five-man rotation?
The main question basically boils down to a question of stamina. Do pitchers have less energy per start if they're pitching on only three days of rest continually? (Even though they're
not rated "tired.")
Here's the status of my staff: I'm crowded with capable starters- a result of the bulk of the league's MR talent not yet being mature. I do have three or four quality relievers, but my pen isn't very strong in comparison to my staff. Last year, after the trading deadline, I had five starters competing for four staff positions, and two or three more in reserve (though, based on their ratings, I wouldn't play two of them in anything more than the five-spot- I wouldn't play them at all, if possible). Luckily (in an ironic sense), one went down with a lengthy injury, and the remaining four performed well. Of the five, three are definite top-forty-in-the-league starters. One is a proven top-ten, possibly top-five. The other two-of-five are over-achievers, but they've proven that they can contribute. Based on last season's statistics, I'd be comfortable starting either of them third on your average team.
Four of them have stamina rated at "C." The fifth, and best, a "D." I'd like to have him raise it in spring training, but you can only hope. The C pitchers averaged over six innings per start- what I'd consider to be typical. The D, on the other hand- despite his excellent ratings and stats, there would be a lot of games where he'd pitch himself out of them in under six innings. He'd occasionally go seven or eight, but for every eight-inning outing, he'd only go 3.2 or 4.1. Had this pitcher usually had four or five days of rest, do you think that he would have been able to accumulate more innings? By the end of the season, he had started 41 games, and pitched 237 innings (over 5.2 per- the C pitchers were nearly all over 6.2).
So, assuming that I can afford to keep them all on-hand, I really wouldn't be in much of a predicament. Unless the five-man rotation would allow the top three more stamina per start, I'm guessing that the four-man rotation would be best, considering that my staff is so talented. And even so, the fifth pitcher could spot-start/pitch from the pen.
But here's where things get complicated. I have two great young starters in AAA- one a young 24 (stamina "B"), the other an old 25 ("C"). They're each already at AR 5/AH 5 or better according to the scout, other ratings varying. Given the excellent responses of Killebrew and others in a recent thread (
http://www.400softwarestudios.com/bo...threadid=19813 ) and the in-game scouting reports, they're ready to be brought up. If these guys are indeed ready to play in the big leagues, they have the kind of potential that make me want to start them ahead of the lesser two starters- up there with the top three I mentioned. Were the elder one not nearing 26, I'd hold him back in AAA a while longer- and I just might leave him there to start the season. But this more-or-less means that I have seven capable starters (and an eighth in reserve), or will by season's end, should they still all be playing with me.
So, given their stamina ratings and talent, do you think that I should stick with the four-man rotation? Or does the fact that I have five starters with above-average potential mean that I could also use the five-man? If I stick with the four long-term, it wouldn't be a problem for me to trade one of the big three, as I do need some financial room.
As a follow-up, once I've decided on the four or five main starters, will I be able to pitch the other two/three from the pen? Is there any downside to pitching a pitcher rated
only at starter from the bullpen? I know I'd get a few e-mails, but is there any actual statistical disadvantage? And how do they fare stamina-wise? If I'm better-suited only keeping one or two of the extra starters, I know I could work the surplus into some trades. But given their past performance, if they can do well from the pen, they might be more useful to me there (as, again, the league is short on quality relievers).
I thank you very much for taking the time to read my post- I know it was rather lengthy. I'd be very appreciative of any answer or advice that you could give me.
(One unrelated question- what observations have been made when it comes to pitchers with low groundball percentages? The 24 year-old I mentioned has a
great outlook, but a groundball percentage of only 31. With his potentially great AR, I'd assume that he'd still get the outs, they'd only be flyballs more often- resulting in less double plays and more sacrifices. What experiences have you had? Thanks again.)