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Originally Posted by mrbill
This meant a reliever could do very well with 2 high rated pitches, they'd be extremely hard to figure out on the first time around. But, the 2nd time around, the hitter would get enough of a bonus to start figuring out the pitches more often. A starter with 4 pitches would get away with hiding his pitch selection to later in the game, even though those pitches may not be as spectacular as the reliever's on the first pass.
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Problem is, there aren't actual numbers or correllations of what's described here. After all, OOTP has always been about models that could generate realistic simulation results. It was never about if the model could be easily described by what could have happened in real life, but if the model could generate believeable stats.
It's good to think about ways to make the model itself closer to what could be easier explained by conventional wisdom, but it's impossible to do that unless we actually have some kind of data to establish what described above. How else are we going to come up with the algorithms to code?