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DiMaggio5CF · 03-28-2006, 11:32 PM

Here is what is going to take OOTP to the next level . . . meaningful pitches.

What makes a starter a starter and a reliever a reliever? Endurance? Sure, but what determines endurance. Are people born with an ability to throw only a certain amount of pitches at a time, or is that endurance a product of training and conditioning? Is a pitcher born as either a starter or a reliver, or is their role dependent on something else?

I contend that the difference between starters and relievers is their available arsenal -- specifically, how many pitches they throw well. A starter probably needs three different pitches; as a starter, a pitcher faces the same hitters a number of times in a game, and therefore must mix up his pitch selection, which means that he needs three Major League quality pitches. A reliever, on the other hand, probably faces a specific hitter only once per game, and so the need to mix up pitch selection isn't as important; a reliever needs two good pitches, or one dominant pitch and at least average pitch.

So how can OOTP better handle this? First of all, get rid of endurance ratings. Have every single college and high school pitcher enter professional baseball with the ability to be a starter (assuming, of course, that he was a starter in amateur ball) and determine endurance by how a player is used. The more innings a pitcher throws per season in his career, the more capable he is of becoming a starter. For example, a short reliever who logs 60 innings per season probably won't be able to convert into a 200-pitch starter, but a long reliever who routinely sees upwards of 100 innings out of the bullpen will probably be able to handle the increased workload fairly well. And the more time that a pitcher spends as a reliver, the harder it will be for him to jump into the starting rotation; a guy who has been a reliever for two seasons will be able to handle the jump better than a veteran who hasn't thrown more than 70 innings in the past ten years. Going the other way, a pitcher who is accustomed to being a starter will be able to easily convert to being a reliever, but he might struggle throwing on back-to-back days, and it might take a season before he can handle a few days of work in a row.

Second, go to ratings for each individual pitch. For each pitch, give a velocity range, a control rating, and a rating for movement. Take this chart as an example (ratings based on 1-100):

Justin Johnson(L, 23 years old)

Pitch 1: Fastball
Velocity: 93-96
Control: B+
Movement: B (9 to 3)
Comment: His bread-and-butter, Johnson can throw his fastball early for a strike and blow it by hitters for a strikeout. It has a slight movement in on LHB, jamming them.

Pitch 2: Slider
Velocity: 85-87
Control: C
Movement: A+ (2 to 8)
Comment: Because of the sharp break away from LHB, this pitch is killer on lefties. It can get out righties as well, but they are more likely to lay off it for a ball.

Pitch 3: Curveball
Velocity: 81-83
Control: F
Movement: B
Comment: The curveball has good break for Johnson, but he just can't control it, resulting in many walks, wild pitches, and cookies right down the middle. If he can harness this pitch, it has the potential to be a plus Major League curve, but right now it does more harm than good.

Pitch 4: Split-Finger
Velocity: 88-91
Control: D-
Movement: C
Comment: Johnson's control struggles with this pitch, and it sometimes doesn't break as sharply as it should, resulting in a lot of hanging splitters, which usually go for homeruns.

In addition, give a blurb about the pitcher's ability vs RHB and vs LHB from either a scout or, if he's on your active roster, the pitching coach -- and for youngsters, include whether he would be more effective as a starter or a reliever. For example: "Because of the break away from LHB, Johnson would make a great left-handed specialist. He only has two plus pitches, so he would best be used as a reliever."

For a fastball, speed would be the primary factor of quality, with movement as the secondary factor. For breaking balls, it would be the opposite, with movement (amount of break) as the primary factor and speed as the secondary factor. The third factor for breaking balls would be the differential in velocity; when comparing two pitchers with the same quality of fastball and changeup, the pitcher with the bigger difference in speed will be slightly more effecitve. Control, for each pitch, is simply an ability to hit spots; poor control leads to a lot of walks and a lot of hard-hit mistake pitches. Additionally, a fastball will generally have better control than any breaking pitch, and when a pitcher falls behind in a count (usually due to poor control) he'll almost always go to the fastball, which will usually be of poorer quality, and which will usually be hammered by good fastball hitters, which we'll get to later.

Instead of giving L/R rating splits, just make the pitcher better against hitters to which the ball breaks away. It's easier to hit a ball breaking toward you than it is a ball breaking away, so it stands to reason that hitters for which the ball breaks away will have a harder time. The better a pitcher's breaking ball is, the more pronounced that differential will be; a fastball pitcher will be pretty equal against lefties and righties, but a pitcher whose best pitch is a breaking ball will be much better against one or the other.

Additionally, if you choose to go with this pitcher as a reliever, you can opt to disable some of his pitches; the advantage is that he doesn't need the extra pitches and you'll optimize his performance by having him throw only his best pitches, while the disadvantage is that his ratings for the disabled pitchers will decrease and make him less effective if you later put him in the bullpen.

On the other hand, if you choose to put him in the rotation, it would be best to allow him to throw all of his pitches. With meaningful pitches, pitch selection would matter, and if batters see the same two pitches over and over, they'll adjust and cream even the best pitches. So even though Johnson might get creamed when he throws his splitter, it would still be better than throwing just the two best pitches. If he threw just the two best pitches, he would get outs at first but then hitters would adjust the second and third times through the lineup -- which is why he would be better as a reliever.

So does available arsenal mean that pitchers will be starters or relievers forever based just on what they can throw? Of course not. During Spring Training and a player's time in the minors, pitchers can develop, and so can their stuff. During Spring Training, you would be able to target certain areas to work on specifically, whether it be a specific pitch or even a specific aspect of a pitch (for example, the control of a pitcher's curveball). In the minors, the minor league pitching coach will work on whatever pitches are enabled. If you want Johnson to be a starter, keep him throwing all pitches (or at least three or four) and the pitching coaches will try to work on all of them; some pitches might develop while others might not, and coaches might just not be able to develop all his pitches, pretty much making the decision for you. If you want him to be a reliever, disable some pitches and have the pitching coach focus on just the hurler's one or two best pitches.

So what does this mean for hitters; after all, it doesn't make sense to re-vamp the pitching aspect without doing anything to the hitting aspect. Well pitch selection is important for hitters, too. Some pitchers are fastball hitters; others are breaking ball hitters. Naturally, when the Yankees face fireball Brad Lidge, Gary Sheffield will probably hit the ball harder than Alex Rodriguez will.

So the answer is to give batters rating against the fastball and the breaking ball. Look at this as an example (1-100 ratings):

Joseph Anderson (R, 30 years old)

vs RH Fastball
Contact: 75
Power: 60
Eye: 80
Strikeout: 70

vs RH Breaking Ball
Contact: 60
Power: 90
Eye: 45
Strikeout: 45

vs LH Fastball
Contact: 60
Power: 70
Eye: 85
Strikeout: 75

vs LH Breaking Ball
Contact: 50
Power: 100
Eye: 55
Strikeout: 55

So what can we tell about this batter? First of all, he makes better contact against righties, but hits for more power against lefties; additionally, he sees the ball better from lefties, which means more walks and fewer strikeouts against left-handed pitchers. Second, he makes better contact with the fastball, but he hits the curveball for better power; additionally, he sees the fastball better, which means that he's more likely to take a breaking ball for a strike and/or chase it out of the zone for a strike. In short, if you're willing to give up a homerun for a better shot to get an out, go with a left-handed junk baller; if you're willing to give up a hit to keep the ball in the park, go to a righty with a good heater.

Additionally, a batter will have hot spots and cold spots on the strike zone. Maybe he can crush anything down the middle, no matter what it is, but if that ball is down and away, he just can't make good contact; if his strengths are spread out throughout the zone, go with a stuff pitcher who can get him out with his pitches. But if the batter has distinct hot and cold zones -- if his cold spots are very cold -- go with a pitcher who has good control and can just put the ball where the batter can't get good wood on it.

Of course, a pitcher might not throw to a batter's weakness. It depends on the differential between the pitcher's strengths and the batter's weaknesses. If a batter is a slightly better curveball hitter, but the pitcher's fastball is immensely better than his breaking pitch, the pitcher will rely heavily on the fastball. On the other hand, if the pitcher's fastball and slider, for example, are relatively close in quality, he'll defer to the hitter's weakness in choosing his pitches.

Now obviously, a pitcher won't go to one pitch for an entire at-bat just because the scouting report says to, unless it happens that the ball is put in play on the first or second pitch of the at-bat. But a good pitcher following a good scouting report will throw other pitches just to mix it up, mostly out of the zone trying to get the hitter to chase, and he will rely on the primary pitch as his out pitch. Early in the count, you'll see the primary pitch to try to get an easy out, and when the pitcher has two strikes on the hitter, you'll see that primary pitch again as the pitcher goes for the strikeout. Of course, when the numbers dictate a mismatch, you might see a quick three-pitch K with the same pitch three in a row.

So what does all of this do? Well on the surface, it puts more emphasis on scouting. Now you need good scouts to do good homework on your opposition. Not only does the scouting report tell you which pitcher or hitter to go to for a specific game or a specific in-game situation, but it also tells the pitcher on the mound which pitches to throw to each hitter. Get a bad scouting report -- either from a bad scout or because you didn't pay enough attention to your upcoming opponent -- and you'll be in the dark.

But more than that, it makes the game more real. Baseball is about matchups. Does Mark Loretta hit all the pitchers that are overall worse than him and make an out against all the pitchers that are overall worse than him? Or does he hit the pitchers that he matches up well against and go down against pitchers that he matches up against poorly?

And as a side note, pitch selection will influence stolen bases; a runner will find it easier to successfully swipe a bag when a curveball is thrown and more difficult when a fastball is thrown. This also puts more pressure on you as the manager. When you see a situation where the pitcher will probably rely heavily on a breaking pitch, call for the steal; but when it's likely that you'll see some fastballs, keep your runner parked.

Pitches determine a lot in baseball. They determine matchups between individual pitchers and hitters (and therefore an individual pitcher's performance against a specific team), stolen base attempts, and a pitcher's effectiveness as a starter or a reliever.

I don't know anything about coding. But Markus, this is the next step for OOTP. Figure out how to do this, and you will be a baseball sim master. I know that this is a huge leap, and OOTP2006 is pretty much done. But if you can make a big change for OOTP2007, I really think that this could revolutionize the game and bring it to the next level.

03-28-2006, 11:32 PM	#1
DiMaggio5CF All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 921	The future of OOTP: Meaningful pitches Here is what is going to take OOTP to the next level . . . meaningful pitches. What makes a starter a starter and a reliever a reliever? Endurance? Sure, but what determines endurance. Are people born with an ability to throw only a certain amount of pitches at a time, or is that endurance a product of training and conditioning? Is a pitcher born as either a starter or a reliver, or is their role dependent on something else? I contend that the difference between starters and relievers is their available arsenal -- specifically, how many pitches they throw well. A starter probably needs three different pitches; as a starter, a pitcher faces the same hitters a number of times in a game, and therefore must mix up his pitch selection, which means that he needs three Major League quality pitches. A reliever, on the other hand, probably faces a specific hitter only once per game, and so the need to mix up pitch selection isn't as important; a reliever needs two good pitches, or one dominant pitch and at least average pitch. So how can OOTP better handle this? First of all, get rid of endurance ratings. Have every single college and high school pitcher enter professional baseball with the ability to be a starter (assuming, of course, that he was a starter in amateur ball) and determine endurance by how a player is used. The more innings a pitcher throws per season in his career, the more capable he is of becoming a starter. For example, a short reliever who logs 60 innings per season probably won't be able to convert into a 200-pitch starter, but a long reliever who routinely sees upwards of 100 innings out of the bullpen will probably be able to handle the increased workload fairly well. And the more time that a pitcher spends as a reliver, the harder it will be for him to jump into the starting rotation; a guy who has been a reliever for two seasons will be able to handle the jump better than a veteran who hasn't thrown more than 70 innings in the past ten years. Going the other way, a pitcher who is accustomed to being a starter will be able to easily convert to being a reliever, but he might struggle throwing on back-to-back days, and it might take a season before he can handle a few days of work in a row. Second, go to ratings for each individual pitch. For each pitch, give a velocity range, a control rating, and a rating for movement. Take this chart as an example (ratings based on 1-100): Justin Johnson(L, 23 years old) Pitch 1: Fastball Velocity: 93-96 Control: B+ Movement: B (9 to 3) Comment: His bread-and-butter, Johnson can throw his fastball early for a strike and blow it by hitters for a strikeout. It has a slight movement in on LHB, jamming them. Pitch 2: Slider Velocity: 85-87 Control: C Movement: A+ (2 to 8) Comment: Because of the sharp break away from LHB, this pitch is killer on lefties. It can get out righties as well, but they are more likely to lay off it for a ball. Pitch 3: Curveball Velocity: 81-83 Control: F Movement: B Comment: The curveball has good break for Johnson, but he just can't control it, resulting in many walks, wild pitches, and cookies right down the middle. If he can harness this pitch, it has the potential to be a plus Major League curve, but right now it does more harm than good. Pitch 4: Split-Finger Velocity: 88-91 Control: D- Movement: C Comment: Johnson's control struggles with this pitch, and it sometimes doesn't break as sharply as it should, resulting in a lot of hanging splitters, which usually go for homeruns. In addition, give a blurb about the pitcher's ability vs RHB and vs LHB from either a scout or, if he's on your active roster, the pitching coach -- and for youngsters, include whether he would be more effective as a starter or a reliever. For example: "Because of the break away from LHB, Johnson would make a great left-handed specialist. He only has two plus pitches, so he would best be used as a reliever." For a fastball, speed would be the primary factor of quality, with movement as the secondary factor. For breaking balls, it would be the opposite, with movement (amount of break) as the primary factor and speed as the secondary factor. The third factor for breaking balls would be the differential in velocity; when comparing two pitchers with the same quality of fastball and changeup, the pitcher with the bigger difference in speed will be slightly more effecitve. Control, for each pitch, is simply an ability to hit spots; poor control leads to a lot of walks and a lot of hard-hit mistake pitches. Additionally, a fastball will generally have better control than any breaking pitch, and when a pitcher falls behind in a count (usually due to poor control) he'll almost always go to the fastball, which will usually be of poorer quality, and which will usually be hammered by good fastball hitters, which we'll get to later. Instead of giving L/R rating splits, just make the pitcher better against hitters to which the ball breaks away. It's easier to hit a ball breaking toward you than it is a ball breaking away, so it stands to reason that hitters for which the ball breaks away will have a harder time. The better a pitcher's breaking ball is, the more pronounced that differential will be; a fastball pitcher will be pretty equal against lefties and righties, but a pitcher whose best pitch is a breaking ball will be much better against one or the other. Additionally, if you choose to go with this pitcher as a reliever, you can opt to disable some of his pitches; the advantage is that he doesn't need the extra pitches and you'll optimize his performance by having him throw only his best pitches, while the disadvantage is that his ratings for the disabled pitchers will decrease and make him less effective if you later put him in the bullpen. On the other hand, if you choose to put him in the rotation, it would be best to allow him to throw all of his pitches. With meaningful pitches, pitch selection would matter, and if batters see the same two pitches over and over, they'll adjust and cream even the best pitches. So even though Johnson might get creamed when he throws his splitter, it would still be better than throwing just the two best pitches. If he threw just the two best pitches, he would get outs at first but then hitters would adjust the second and third times through the lineup -- which is why he would be better as a reliever. So does available arsenal mean that pitchers will be starters or relievers forever based just on what they can throw? Of course not. During Spring Training and a player's time in the minors, pitchers can develop, and so can their stuff. During Spring Training, you would be able to target certain areas to work on specifically, whether it be a specific pitch or even a specific aspect of a pitch (for example, the control of a pitcher's curveball). In the minors, the minor league pitching coach will work on whatever pitches are enabled. If you want Johnson to be a starter, keep him throwing all pitches (or at least three or four) and the pitching coaches will try to work on all of them; some pitches might develop while others might not, and coaches might just not be able to develop all his pitches, pretty much making the decision for you. If you want him to be a reliever, disable some pitches and have the pitching coach focus on just the hurler's one or two best pitches. So what does this mean for hitters; after all, it doesn't make sense to re-vamp the pitching aspect without doing anything to the hitting aspect. Well pitch selection is important for hitters, too. Some pitchers are fastball hitters; others are breaking ball hitters. Naturally, when the Yankees face fireball Brad Lidge, Gary Sheffield will probably hit the ball harder than Alex Rodriguez will. So the answer is to give batters rating against the fastball and the breaking ball. Look at this as an example (1-100 ratings): Joseph Anderson (R, 30 years old) vs RH Fastball Contact: 75 Power: 60 Eye: 80 Strikeout: 70 vs RH Breaking Ball Contact: 60 Power: 90 Eye: 45 Strikeout: 45 vs LH Fastball Contact: 60 Power: 70 Eye: 85 Strikeout: 75 vs LH Breaking Ball Contact: 50 Power: 100 Eye: 55 Strikeout: 55 So what can we tell about this batter? First of all, he makes better contact against righties, but hits for more power against lefties; additionally, he sees the ball better from lefties, which means more walks and fewer strikeouts against left-handed pitchers. Second, he makes better contact with the fastball, but he hits the curveball for better power; additionally, he sees the fastball better, which means that he's more likely to take a breaking ball for a strike and/or chase it out of the zone for a strike. In short, if you're willing to give up a homerun for a better shot to get an out, go with a left-handed junk baller; if you're willing to give up a hit to keep the ball in the park, go to a righty with a good heater. Additionally, a batter will have hot spots and cold spots on the strike zone. Maybe he can crush anything down the middle, no matter what it is, but if that ball is down and away, he just can't make good contact; if his strengths are spread out throughout the zone, go with a stuff pitcher who can get him out with his pitches. But if the batter has distinct hot and cold zones -- if his cold spots are very cold -- go with a pitcher who has good control and can just put the ball where the batter can't get good wood on it. Of course, a pitcher might not throw to a batter's weakness. It depends on the differential between the pitcher's strengths and the batter's weaknesses. If a batter is a slightly better curveball hitter, but the pitcher's fastball is immensely better than his breaking pitch, the pitcher will rely heavily on the fastball. On the other hand, if the pitcher's fastball and slider, for example, are relatively close in quality, he'll defer to the hitter's weakness in choosing his pitches. Now obviously, a pitcher won't go to one pitch for an entire at-bat just because the scouting report says to, unless it happens that the ball is put in play on the first or second pitch of the at-bat. But a good pitcher following a good scouting report will throw other pitches just to mix it up, mostly out of the zone trying to get the hitter to chase, and he will rely on the primary pitch as his out pitch. Early in the count, you'll see the primary pitch to try to get an easy out, and when the pitcher has two strikes on the hitter, you'll see that primary pitch again as the pitcher goes for the strikeout. Of course, when the numbers dictate a mismatch, you might see a quick three-pitch K with the same pitch three in a row. So what does all of this do? Well on the surface, it puts more emphasis on scouting. Now you need good scouts to do good homework on your opposition. Not only does the scouting report tell you which pitcher or hitter to go to for a specific game or a specific in-game situation, but it also tells the pitcher on the mound which pitches to throw to each hitter. Get a bad scouting report -- either from a bad scout or because you didn't pay enough attention to your upcoming opponent -- and you'll be in the dark. But more than that, it makes the game more real. Baseball is about matchups. Does Mark Loretta hit all the pitchers that are overall worse than him and make an out against all the pitchers that are overall worse than him? Or does he hit the pitchers that he matches up well against and go down against pitchers that he matches up against poorly? And as a side note, pitch selection will influence stolen bases; a runner will find it easier to successfully swipe a bag when a curveball is thrown and more difficult when a fastball is thrown. This also puts more pressure on you as the manager. When you see a situation where the pitcher will probably rely heavily on a breaking pitch, call for the steal; but when it's likely that you'll see some fastballs, keep your runner parked. Pitches determine a lot in baseball. They determine matchups between individual pitchers and hitters (and therefore an individual pitcher's performance against a specific team), stolen base attempts, and a pitcher's effectiveness as a starter or a reliever. I don't know anything about coding. But Markus, this is the next step for OOTP. Figure out how to do this, and you will be a baseball sim master. I know that this is a huge leap, and OOTP2006 is pretty much done. But if you can make a big change for OOTP2007, I really think that this could revolutionize the game and bring it to the next level.