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Originally Posted by darkhorse
Snipped this from BB Pro. And not to beat the dumb Konerko deal to death, but.......
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=4762
"Still, the new deal is a pretty good one for the team. They’ll get Dunn’s theoretical peak seasons, ages 26 through 28, for a total of $31 million, with no obligation to keep him as he moves past his peak to the wrong side of the compensation/productivity matrix. The deal illustrates the power of the rules that govern player movement; consider the contract signed by the older, less productive Paul Konerko this winter, worth $12 million a year for five years. Konerko was a free agent able to solicit work anywhere in the game, and as such, commanded a higher salary and a longer commitment than the more valuable Dunn. The ability to prevent competitive bidding for a player’s services for the first six years of his career is the single most valuable weapon in a team’s arsenal.
Running at this from another angle, take a look at Dunn’s PECOTA card. Nate Silver has developed a metric he calls Marginal Value Over Replacement Player (MORP). The number is the value a player will return, expressed as a dollar figure. Dunn is projected to return $38 million over the next three seasons, while making $31 million. The investment in him should be worth $7 million to the Reds in terms of his impact on their on-field performance. Konerko, on the other hand, is projected to return just $17.6 million over the life of his deal, making the investment a loss to the tune of more than $40 million. (White Sox fans will argue that signing Konerko was based on considerations other than performance. Those may be valid, but they’re not $40 million worth of valid.)" |
Well, I agree that the Sox did overpay, especially with that 5th year, I really think Konerko is a guy who is having a late-peak. While the 5th and possibly the 4th year of the deal could get ugly, it's completely possible that Konerko will put up numbers at 30, 31, and 32 that he put up at 28 and 29. Based on his trends, I don't think it's too much of a leap to suggest that.
As for Adam Dunn, he real good. This is an excellent move for Cincinnati.