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Originally posted by Alan T
1) The exceptions to the rule which there are some proven examples of pitchers having a 10 year span of mediocre strikeout totals and still doing fine.
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I'll agree with mediocre if you mean "average" or "slightly above average" such as Greg Maddux (who also has had the best defense in baseball behind him, which helps).
I'd like to see some examples of great pitchers with productive careers who had K/9 rates well below the league average. I'm talking 4 K/9 or less in most seasons.
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2) Those cases where opposing avg does not correlate well with the pitcher's Strikeout totals. Too often a pitcher who already is a big strikeout pitcher will strikeout 40 more players the next season in roughly the same number of innings pitched yet have a considerably worse opponent avg against.
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That's because the batting average on balls in play for a pitcher in any given season is determined by defense and luck. The latest studies (not by James, who also did not do the original study being discussed here or any studies relating to the matter, that I'm aware of) show that a team level with a consistent defense year-in and year-out (1990's Braves, for instance) will allow a consistent batting average on balls in play, but individual pitchers fluctuate wildly. Defensive support is really no different than run support in that regards, one season a guy will get 6 runs a game from his team the next he'll get 3 runs per game.
When it comes down to it, a great pitcher does 4 things - throws a lot of innings, strikes out a lot of guys, doesn't allow many walks, and doesn't allow many homeruns. I'm not sure that I can think of anyone in baseball right now who fits all 4 criteria besides *maybe* Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson, who not so coincidentally are also consistently the best pitchers in the league every year. If Schilling didn't allow so many homeruns he'd be one of the greatest pitchers to have ever played the game - a strikeout/9 ratio on par with a power pitcher, a walk/9 ratio on par with Greg Maddux, and 250 innings a year. That's someone I'd want on my team (too bad my team is the Phillies, grr).
Jason