Has anyone played around with brock2? I found a bunch of career predictions I made with it last May and forgot about, and it's kind of eerie how close certain stats came to what the players really did this year.
For an example, here's Bobby Abreu's extrapolated stats for 2002 in brock2 versus what he really did:
Code:
YEAR G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
2002-brock2 157 569 122 176 44 6 27 100 110 0.309
2002-real 157 572 102 176 50 6 20 104 117 0.308
Kinda scary... and has me more than a tad worried about his projected dropoff:
Code:
YEAR G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
1999 152 546 118 183 35 11 20 93 109 0.335
2000 154 576 103 182 42 10 25 79 100 0.316
2001 162 588 118 170 48 4 31 110 106 0.289
2002 157 569 122 176 44 6 27 100 110 0.309
2003 162 579 111 168 44 4 26 97 104 0.290
2004 157 574 110 170 43 5 24 93 103 0.296
2005 158 551 98 158 40 4 21 85 96 0.287
2006 156 550 94 156 39 4 20 81 94 0.284
2007 156 536 86 147 36 3 17 74 93 0.274
2008 154 527 82 146 36 3 16 71 83 0.277
2009 153 514 74 137 33 2 14 65 82 0.267
2010 152 507 70 133 32 2 13 61 78 0.262
2011 152 498 60 123 29 2 10 54 76 0.247
2012 81 242 33 66 15 1 5 28 36 0.273
2013 102 225 23 51 12 1 4 21 33 0.227
2014 24 52 6 13 3 0 1 5 7 0.250
2015 8 8 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 0.250
TOTALS 2465 8349 1400 2388 571 62 294 1219 1418 0.286
Anyone spent any time with this tool to see how accurate the projections are?
Jason