OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Home/Away Performance needs to be tweaked

Le Grande Orange · 12-23-2005, 11:07 PM

So, as I mentioned earlier, I just went through the win-loss results at Retrosheet for four stadiums: the Astrodome, Atlanta Fulton-Country Stadium, Olympic Stadium, and Riverfront Stadium. All four of these parks had symmetric outfield fences, foul territories which are roughly similar, and field dimensions which are very similar. Given this, tailoring the team to its home park would be of little value as their are no distinctive features to tailor for.

I used only the results of these four clubs against each other; this removes any chance of teams in asymmetric parks from skewing the results. That leaves circular, symmetric ballpark teams playing other circular, symmetric ballpark teams for only those years when the aforementioned ballparks were in use for a full season.

The final result:

2166 games played.

Home team record: 1141-1025 .5268
Away team record: 1025-1141 .4732

The home winning percentage was .05355 points higher than the away winning percentage. The home team won 5.36% more games at home than the overall winning percentage suggests it should have won. The home team won 11.32% more games than it lost.

And all of this in games between clubs playing in nearly identical parks with no distinctive features to tailor a team for. So what factors are at work to explain these results?

12-23-2005, 11:07 PM	#43
Le Grande Orange Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Up There Posts: 15,642	So, as I mentioned earlier, I just went through the win-loss results at Retrosheet for four stadiums: the Astrodome, Atlanta Fulton-Country Stadium, Olympic Stadium, and Riverfront Stadium. All four of these parks had symmetric outfield fences, foul territories which are roughly similar, and field dimensions which are very similar. Given this, tailoring the team to its home park would be of little value as their are no distinctive features to tailor for. I used only the results of these four clubs against each other; this removes any chance of teams in asymmetric parks from skewing the results. That leaves circular, symmetric ballpark teams playing other circular, symmetric ballpark teams for only those years when the aforementioned ballparks were in use for a full season. The final result: 2166 games played. Home team record: 1141-1025 .5268 Away team record: 1025-1141 .4732 The home winning percentage was .05355 points higher than the away winning percentage. The home team won 5.36% more games at home than the overall winning percentage suggests it should have won. The home team won 11.32% more games than it lost. And all of this in games between clubs playing in nearly identical parks with no distinctive features to tailor a team for. So what factors are at work to explain these results?