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Old 12-23-2005, 03:26 AM   #14
Le Grande Orange
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Here's a little table I think I've posted before, but I'll post it again anyway. It shows the records of each position of finish in the AL and NL from 1901-1960, sixty years in which both leagues were constant in size at eight clubs in each.

Code:
NATIONAL LEAGUE, 1901-1960

          W     L    Pct     HW    HL   HPct     AW    AL   APct     W%  PctDiff
 1st   5813  3317  .6367   3063  1528  .6672   2750  1789  .6059   4.79   .0613
 2nd   5386  3740  .5902   2869  1702  .6277   2517  2038  .5526   6.35   .0751
 3rd   5100  4003  .5603   2746  1830  .6001   2354  2173  .5200   7.11   .0801
 4th   4766  4348  .5229   2606  1964  .5702   2160  2384  .4754   9.05   .0949
 5th   4418  4671  .4861   2419  2124  .5325   1999  2547  .4397   9.54   .0927
 6th   4030  5076  .4426   2209  2341  .4855   1821  2735  .3997   9.70   .0858
 7th   3687  5390  .4062   2021  2457  .4513   1666  2933  .3623  11.11   .0891
 8th   3222  5877  .3541   1806  2737  .3975   1416  3140  .3108  12.26   .0867
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 36422 36422  .5000  19739 16683  .5420  16683 19739  .4580   8.39   .0839

AMERICAN LEAGUE, 1901-1960

          W     L    Pct     HW    HL   HPct     AW    AL   APct     W%  PctDiff
 1st   5814  3275  .6397   3150  1420  .6893   2664  1855  .5895   7.75   .0998
 2nd   5378  3714  .5915   2914  1640  .6399   2464  2074  .5430   8.18   .0969
 3rd   5078  4032  .5574   2778  1793  .6077   2300  2239  .5067   9.03   .1010
 4th   4755  4326  .5236   2580  1978  .5660   2175  2348  .4809   8.10   .0852
 5th   4451  4622  .4906   2424  2109  .5347   2027  2513  .4465   9.00   .0883
 6th   4086  4991  .4501   2263  2259  .5004   1823  2732  .4002  11.17   .1002
 7th   3689  5396  .4061   2074  2452  .4582   1615  2944  .3542  12.85   .1040
 8th   3104  5999  .3410   1731  2790  .3829   1373  3209  .2997  12.29   .0832
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 36355 36355  .5000  19914 16441  .5478  16441 19914  .4522   9.55   .0955
Chart legend:

W is the aggregate total of wins posted by clubs finishing in that position.
L is the aggregate total of losses posted by clubs finishing in that position.
Pct is the overall winning percentage for each W-L record.
HW is the aggregate total of home wins posted by clubs finishing in that position.
HL is the aggregate total of home losses posted by clubs finishing in that position.
HPct is the winning percentage for each HW-HL record.
AW is the aggregate total of away wins posted by clubs finishing in that position.
AL is the aggregate total of away losses posted by clubs finishing in that position.
APct is the winning percentage for each AW-AL record.
W% is the actual number of wins at home divided by the number of predicted number of wins at home as calculated by the overall winning percentage. The result indicates the percentage of wins at home above what would be predicted based on the overall record. For example, a W% of 5.0 indicates that a team won 5% more games at home than it's overall winning percentage suggests it should have won.
PctDiff is the difference between the HPct and the APct.


We can see from the chart that over the sixty year period teams finishing in first had on average a .6367 winning percentage in the NL and a .6397 winning percentage in the AL.

The figures to note are the PctDiff figures for each position of finish. The NL shows something of a bell curve while the AL is more varied. Note how last place teams derive the biggest benefit in terms of W% from home field advantage due to them have fewer wins overall so each additional win gained at home is naturally a greater percentage of the whole.

It's also interesting to see a difference between the two leagues. The NL teams on average posted a home winning percentage .0839 better than the away winning percentage, which works out to almost 8.4% more wins at home. The AL showed a .0955 better home winning percentage, or almost 9.6% more wins at home than the overall winning percentage would suggest it should have. In the early decades of the AL the difference was quite pronounced, but as the years go on the spread narrows.

Given all this, it's obvious that there are a lot more factors at work than just a club tailoring its players to the particulars of its home parks.
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