OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - You run the Pale Hose (Poll #1.5): Would you make this trade?

cknox0723 · 11-05-2005, 02:40 PM

A second try at this.

Miguel Olivo has been a staple of Pale Hose suckage for going on two years now, and as backup catchers go, he ain't a bad one. Kid's got the defensive chops that's made lesser backstops (e.g. Brad Ausmus) millions, and he hits southpaws just fine. Hackin' Miggy's also played the hero on more than one occasion this season.

But he's got his flaws. If a right-hander's out on the mound, any right-hander, Olivo may as well go hide in the clubhouse, because he's at best a .250 hitter. Last year, it was worse than that -- a .230 average and woeful .258 OBP against right-handers, without even a single home run in 126 at-bats. To compare, he jacked 5 Out of the Park (TM) in 127 AB's against southpaws, to go along with a nifty .299 batting average.

So you can't play him every day. He makes a good backup, but with free agency beckoning after this season, Olivo wants some bread. 3 years, around a million bucks a year, to be more precise. Is that the kind of contract that will make Pale Hose fans call for my head? Nah. But it also seems like a sort of frivolous expense for a club that's stretched by a $50 million payroll...especially one that doesn't really have a solid starting catcher in the first place.

So I thought I'd throw out a few feelers, and in a league strapped for quality backstops, it seems Olivo can bring some nice value. Texas is especially hard-up for him, since their starting catcher, Gerald Laird, just had his right leg give way, likely forcing him to the infirmary for the remainder of the season. To rely on wet-noodled, raw 23 year olds Adam Donachie and Edmond Kirsch is akin to professional suicide for a team within a stone's throw of first place, so we could get some goods here.

Tony Graffanino, currently salted away at AAA Oklahoma, would give is a better utility infielder than Aneudi Cuevas, since the latter's impotent bat negates any value that his slick fielding may provide. T-Graff, a 35 year old, ain't even hitting much for the 38-23 RedHawks, sporting a .270 batting average and decent OBP but little power, but a little's certainly better than nothing. He's not the real reason I'd make the trade, anyway, even if he is the most recognizable name.

No, the real reason would be to add a couple of pitching prospects to the system. A lefty and a righty, a guy at triple-A and one two levels lower. The southpaw is 22 year old John Danks, who's a perfect 6-0 in 6 starts at AAA, after posting a 1.74 run average in seven outings for AA Frisco. Danks stands 6'2" and reaches the mid-nineties with his heater, reason enough to recommend him. But he's also got a big deuce and a reasonable changeup, not to mention command that's proven solid at every minor league stop he's made.

The other guy we'd add is 23 year old Dave DeMarest, a right-handed pitcher who I hoped to snag in last June's amateur draft. Instead, he ended up with this ballclub by virtue of the seventeenth pick, and a year later, the man who's was a Tar Heel born and a Tar Heel bred is looking like he'll eventually be...a Tar Heel dead.

Code:

YR/LEVEL	IP	H	BB/K	ERA
2006, COLLEGE	132	108	40/169	2.24
2006, A		113	100	41/85	3.10
2006, A		98	81	21/75	2.84

His minor league numbers look reasonable, but keep in mind that "little league" ERA's are typically much lower in OOTP. DeMarest's 7-8 and 4-6 won-loss records are more indicative of the quality of his pitching, and if you refuse to believe in wins and losses, check out the drop in his strikeout rate from college to the pros. We are not talking about Mark Prior here.

And the scout likes both of 'em -- Danks and DeMarest -- about as far as he can throw 'em. Now, I don't have height and weight numbers, but Clark McTaggart is 53 years old, and if he was ever a competitive bodybuilder, I don't think that would be too old to be completely retired, do you?

Suffice all that to say that there is nothing that screams out to obviously pull the trigger on a deal like this, and to make matters worse, this Pale Hose club is solidly around .500 in a weak division; in other words, we probably suck, but why resign ourselves to it by trading away a potentially useful player? Just the same, I don't want to pass up a good deal, and we are starved for young pitching. After blinking a few too many times, I decided it'd be best to consult you fine folks.

So, what do you think?

11-05-2005, 02:40 PM	#1
cknox0723 All Star Starter Join Date: May 2003 Location: NJ Posts: 1,957	You run the Pale Hose (Poll #1.5): Would you make this trade? A second try at this. Miguel Olivo has been a staple of Pale Hose suckage for going on two years now, and as backup catchers go, he ain't a bad one. Kid's got the defensive chops that's made lesser backstops (e.g. Brad Ausmus) millions, and he hits southpaws just fine. Hackin' Miggy's also played the hero on more than one occasion this season. But he's got his flaws. If a right-hander's out on the mound, any right-hander, Olivo may as well go hide in the clubhouse, because he's at best a .250 hitter. Last year, it was worse than that -- a .230 average and woeful .258 OBP against right-handers, without even a single home run in 126 at-bats. To compare, he jacked 5 Out of the Park (TM) in 127 AB's against southpaws, to go along with a nifty .299 batting average. So you can't play him every day. He makes a good backup, but with free agency beckoning after this season, Olivo wants some bread. 3 years, around a million bucks a year, to be more precise. Is that the kind of contract that will make Pale Hose fans call for my head? Nah. But it also seems like a sort of frivolous expense for a club that's stretched by a $50 million payroll...especially one that doesn't really have a solid starting catcher in the first place. So I thought I'd throw out a few feelers, and in a league strapped for quality backstops, it seems Olivo can bring some nice value. Texas is especially hard-up for him, since their starting catcher, Gerald Laird, just had his right leg give way, likely forcing him to the infirmary for the remainder of the season. To rely on wet-noodled, raw 23 year olds Adam Donachie and Edmond Kirsch is akin to professional suicide for a team within a stone's throw of first place, so we could get some goods here. Tony Graffanino, currently salted away at AAA Oklahoma, would give is a better utility infielder than Aneudi Cuevas, since the latter's impotent bat negates any value that his slick fielding may provide. T-Graff, a 35 year old, ain't even hitting much for the 38-23 RedHawks, sporting a .270 batting average and decent OBP but little power, but a little's certainly better than nothing. He's not the real reason I'd make the trade, anyway, even if he is the most recognizable name. No, the real reason would be to add a couple of pitching prospects to the system. A lefty and a righty, a guy at triple-A and one two levels lower. The southpaw is 22 year old John Danks, who's a perfect 6-0 in 6 starts at AAA, after posting a 1.74 run average in seven outings for AA Frisco. Danks stands 6'2" and reaches the mid-nineties with his heater, reason enough to recommend him. But he's also got a big deuce and a reasonable changeup, not to mention command that's proven solid at every minor league stop he's made. The other guy we'd add is 23 year old Dave DeMarest, a right-handed pitcher who I hoped to snag in last June's amateur draft. Instead, he ended up with this ballclub by virtue of the seventeenth pick, and a year later, the man who's was a Tar Heel born and a Tar Heel bred is looking like he'll eventually be...a Tar Heel dead. Code: YR/LEVEL IP H BB/K ERA 2006, COLLEGE 132 108 40/169 2.24 2006, A 113 100 41/85 3.10 2006, A 98 81 21/75 2.84 His minor league numbers look reasonable, but keep in mind that "little league" ERA's are typically much lower in OOTP. DeMarest's 7-8 and 4-6 won-loss records are more indicative of the quality of his pitching, and if you refuse to believe in wins and losses, check out the drop in his strikeout rate from college to the pros. We are not talking about Mark Prior here. And the scout likes both of 'em -- Danks and DeMarest -- about as far as he can throw 'em. Now, I don't have height and weight numbers, but Clark McTaggart is 53 years old, and if he was ever a competitive bodybuilder, I don't think that would be too old to be completely retired, do you? Suffice all that to say that there is nothing that screams out to obviously pull the trigger on a deal like this, and to make matters worse, this Pale Hose club is solidly around .500 in a weak division; in other words, we probably suck, but why resign ourselves to it by trading away a potentially useful player? Just the same, I don't want to pass up a good deal, and we are starved for young pitching. After blinking a few too many times, I decided it'd be best to consult you fine folks. So, what do you think?