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Old 10-19-2005, 09:19 PM   #610
Luis_Rivera
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 4,177
I think that the thing that gives Brian Roberts hope that you don't see when you look at Davey Johnson's flukey 1973 is the fact that Roberts is just 25, while Johson was 30.

That being said, the two biggest indicators of a fluky season are where most of the value comes from a higher BABIP and a spike in total bases. These are the two least sustainable abilities from fluke/spike seasons for whatever reason.

Brian's value came from just that... his K and BB rates remained pretty much static (these are the most sustainable improvements, FYI) but his BABIP was a very high .343 (although, he should have an above average BABIP because he hits a lot of line drives FWIW), and the rest of the increase in value came from a career high 7 triples and 18 HR. He's not likely to reach these totals next year. Again, you can't rule out any possibility... especially when we're talking about a 25 year old, but it's not likely.

He's a very good second sacker... and should be for years to come barring the injury effecting him long term. I'd expect him to regress pretty heavily next year, but he'll still be above average.
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