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Originally Posted by Dagrims
He's already had his two hot streaks for the season - April and May. He's 16 for his last 25 with seven walks, 12 runs and 12 RBI.
If he hits .282 over the rest of the season (the highest full season batting average he's had) and gets a total of 600 AB, he'll wind up with a .312 batting average. That won't win the batting crown. Let's assume a .340 average will be needed to win it, which is not unrealistic considering the last NL batting champion to hit less than .350 was Gwynn in 1992. In a 600 AB season he'd have to hit .322 over the next four months. That's a four month hot streak according to your definition, coming on the heels of a two month performance in which he hit more than 100 points higher than his lifetime average.
I think the chances of him hitting 50 points over his lifetime average over the remainder of the season are very small. His batting average has a 2004 Ivan Rodriguez feel to it, in my opinion. I'd love to see him be in the running for it late in the season, though.
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I was thinking of this argument when I was setting the odds--that basically Lee would have to hot streak the whole way out. But he wouldn't. He could hit .280 for a bit, hit .390 for a bit, etc. He'd only have to "hot streak" it the whole way if he hit exactly .320 during that streak.
I get your point, but there is also the issue of: exactly how good of a hitter is Lee? Is his baseline average .280? Or has he become a better hitter? Is he now a legit .300 hitter? Very possibly, I say, based on what we've seen. I mean, the odds of a .300 hitter hitting .380 this deep into a season are a lot better than the odds of a .280 hitter doing it. Of course, we're never able to really pinpoint any hitter's true abilities. I guess that's what makes this fun.
It should also be mentioned that his .280 was at a different park on a different team. That makes it even harder to pinpoint what Lee
should be hitting. It'll be interesting to, at the end of the year, look back from this date on and see what he hit.