Ok, so I can’t find any studies out there (though I’m sure they exist) that show if SOr or BBr or SO/BB have any correlation to HR rate. (Great article, btw, from Studes; thanks, Ktulu).
So, I took the Lahman database for every season of every pitcher with >200 BFP since 1955 (when we track IBB). I had 12,291 seasons of data.
I added some columns: HR/IP; HR/H; HR/BIP*; and, HR/BFP.
By HR/BIP, I do not actually mean Balls in Play, as HRs are not in play. I mean HR/(BFP-SO-BB-HBP).
I also added in (BB-IBB)/BFP and SO/BFP.
I then ran a simple Correl test in excel. I got the following numbers:
Code:
SO/BB BBr SOr
0.023362287 0.1312753 0.1048 HR/H
-0.080309341 0.0891128 -0.0906 HR/IP
-0.025859706 0.0368653 -0.0656 HR/BFP
0.011514666 0.1339985 0.0938 HR/BIP
Now, I learned as much math as a college freshman, and I know as much math as a high school freshman. So, I can’t do much to interpret these. I’d guess that HR/BIP and BBr have the highest correlation, but it still is fairly weak. I.e., I don't think there is much of a correlation at all in there.
I don’t know what OotP does. If anyone wants my sheet to really look at the data, feel free to PM me.