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Originally Posted by Anonymous Ghost
Again, you misstate one of the basic premises of PECOTA: its not projection based on all players
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Which, of course, was never said. But you are doing very well as misrepresentation, so I'll let you carry on with it. You're likely good at very few things, but for misrepresentation and distortion, you're A-1 Aces, baby.
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Silver certainly isn't the first person to do this type of research, but he's done the most extensive, publicly available (for a nominal subscription) projection set. He focuses on popularizing his method more than his results because he understands a basic statistical concept that you seem to have difficulty with: variance around a sample mean, some of which are the result of exogenuous factors beyond a player's control (suboptimal usage/playing time, freak injuries, etc). And again, the point of PECOTA is not to project exact "counting" stats, its to sift through the noise and properly try to gauge a player's true talent, present and future.
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You can continue to blather on nonsensically about my not understanding...I understand PECOTA fine, likely far better than you do. It's fascinating you spit out a 5-year forecast, say "a career projection...is pretty reliable when using a system as sophisticated as PECOTA"...then you say projections aren't the point when I confront you on the questionable accuracy of those projections. In essence, you ran your entire argument right into the ground. Well done!
Anything that projects ANYTHING is subject to being measured by the accuracy of its results. THAT is a basic concept that you apparently fail to recognize. Again, PECOTA is the best tool right now. I don't argue that point in the slightest, and Nat's work is commendable. And it will improve because he's dedicated to it.
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As for Diaz in particular, you said "Hitting isn't the question with this guy. He can hit, but his defense is...well....he can hit" which I interpreted as meaning you believe him to be a star hitter with subpar defense. The evidence--PECOTA or otherwise--pretty clearly indicate that he's not. That's an honest misunderstanding for which your imprecise language is as much at fault as my assumption. Let's move on and focus on your imprecise understanding of the application multivariable regression. If you drop the smug attitude going forward, I'll be happy to answer any questions that you may have.
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Your asinine assumption is your own fault. I said he could hit, you noted the projection (which you later wanted to disregard) put him above average at 1B or corner outfield. Above average is certainly positive, though not glowing...kind of like saying "he can hit" is positive but not calling him a "perennial all-star." You made the leap to try to create an argument that has fallen on its face. Not my fault.
Funny...after your "by no means a perennial all-star" comment, you're the one who drew the comparisons to Jeff Kent...a 4-time All Star.
We've now deviated sufficiently from the thread. If you care to, feel free to PM me and I'll continue your education free of charge.
GH