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Originally Posted by CubsLose
But it's LUCK! To paraphrase NekcarCcM SoroV, watch the Home Run Derby during the All Star Break. The pitcher is LOBBING pitches over the heart of the plate, much slower and with worse location than a fatigued game pitcher, and the batters STILL make 'outs'. It doesn't matter how fatigued the pitcher is late in the game, it isn't gonna guarantee that when contact is made the ball will fall for a hit. By striking out players, be it in the first inning or the ninth, he's increasing the probability that no-one will get a hit.
And do you really think that fatigue will play a role anyway when the adrenaline's pumping during those last six outs?
An interesting article (not entirely unrelated), which I'm sure you have read but may want to look at again, is Bill James' study into the pitchers most likely to throw a no-hitter. Those most likely to pitch that rarest of games are undoubtedly strikeout pitchers.
http://www.robneyer.com/book_04_ExpectNoNo.html
I have been trying to find stats for near no-hitters but, like those ill-fated moundsmen, have come up short. It would be interesting to see if those who have come close but failed have struck out more batters (and thrown more pitches) compared to those who have thrown a no hitter because I'm always happy to be proved wrong.  |
Good link there, that was a fascinating read that I'm gonna bookmark and study a little more closely. Bill James usually has some pretty intelligent sh*t to say (although I don't consider him the end all, be all of baseball that most other folks do).
As far as comparing it to the homerun derby, it's completely impossible. First of all, "outs" in the derby are anything that is not a HR, which includes anything that would result in a basehit in a real game. Also, like you said, the pitchers are lobbing batting practice, not pitching. I could go on there, but there's no real point; there's no comparison between the end of a no hitter and the homerun derby, other than that when a pitcher is striking out a lot of guys throughout the game and racks up a pitch count, his pitches look *more like* those in a homerun derby as the game wears on, rendering the pitcher hittable and usually resulting in the death of a no-hitter.
There's very little in baseball that actually happens as a result of luck. Almost anything can be broken down into a number. No-hitters are no different. The only real, consistent aspect of luck present in a no hitter is a pitcher being able to follow his (or his catcher's) game plan and get guys out.