[cknox0723]

Much to my chagrin, this Philly club sizzles like the steaks the city's famous for. They have no catcher -- someone with two first names, Josh Paul, is their only option there -- but they'll get above-average production from most every other position. These are flawed players, sure -- Chase Utley barely got on base at a 30% clip last year, their three-headed third base monster of Jimenez, Nakamaru, and Nevin is...well, you come up with your own witty line about a decapitated cerberus. Oh, and Bob Abreu hit just .248 last year. But Pat Burrell. Jim Thome, and Abreu will combine for over 100 big hlies, and Marlon Byrd's not too shabby, either -- .310/.360/.455 for the average, OBP, and SLG if you run a quick and dirty Marcel projection on his last three seasons' worth of numbers. The Phightin' Phils were 8th in the league in run scoring last year, and nothing seems so out of sort that they wouldn't do that again.

The pitching will make or break this bunch, but they've got a strong backbone in Vicente Padilla, a certifiable ace who may not allow 46 less hits than innings again, but should still be good for 35 solid starts and perhaps 17 wins. Frankie Cordero's a quality closer, with an ERA in the mid-twos a near-lock, and his setup men, who weren't bad last year, should be...well, richer, if nothing else. Damaso Marte, our old friend, nicknamed "Shoeless", and knuckleballer Trever Miller are the hired guns to do the seventh and eighth inning dirty work this year.

But all is not peachy in Philadelphia. The lineup's great, the bullpen's strong, they've got an ace, but they're going to need 800 innings from their other four starters to apparently grow from some magic beans. The four mulattos behind Padilla are as bad a group as I've seen so far, on par with Chris Reitsma and Edgar Gonzalez and Darrell Rasnar.

Jason Johnson's the best of the bunch, a decent back end guy. His upside is what he did last year -- 10-8, 4.03 ERA, 175 innings. If he pitches in a bit of a poor luck, leaves a changeup or three up in the zone -- watch out, because he'll go from 'average' to 'duck and cover'. Such is the life of a nibbler who fans 4.5 per nine.

Jon Lieber's 36 and pitched pound for pound as well as Johnson did last year. You want to bet on him improving? Sure, anything's possible -- but as your number two starter?

Better than 26 year old Brett Myers as the three, though. His ERA last year? 5.12. For comparison, Dr. Loaiza's was 5.32, and he lost 16. 5.12 is pretty damned terrible in this league. "Ah, but he's young," you're thinking. "Potential." If it's there, he's kept it well hidden, as his career ERA in nearly 800 major-league innings is 4.58.

And Mike Hampton and Darren Dreifort will engage in an all out scrum for the fifth starter's slot. Dreifort might keep the ERA under five; Hampton shows no reason that you would think that.

Imagine if the injury bug bites. Cole Hamels, a 23 year old southpaw, won 10 in AAA last year, but a year after going 5-12. No one else looks ready. This rotation is worse than the one in Chicago. It's a shame. This ballclub is like that first used car you drive -- may not look perfect, but it looks like it'll work well enough. And it's wheels, baby! It's a car, damn it, who cares what it looks like? You can go wherever the open road will take you!

And then you realize the transmission's shot, and you end up on the side of the road in the rain. Randy Wolf, now in Los Angeles, was this team's transmission. 200 innings of league-average ball, maybe slightly above -- this club should have busted open the piggy bank for Josh Towers. Wolf would have been worth five wins to this team. It's five wins they'll sorely, sorely miss, because they'll end up on the outside looking in because of it.