Quote:
Originally posted by spleen1015
Isn't true that some of the greatest HR hitters have peaked in their 30s? Bonds? Aaron? So, saying decline kicks in during the 30s may not be totally accurate.
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Bonds has peaked HR-wise but he's been putting up MVP-quality numbers since 1990. He's also an exception to the rule.
Aaron's best years were pretty much every year from 1955 to 1973, ages 21 to 39. That's probably why he's the all time HR leader by a wide margin.
Edit: Looking through the list of active HR leaders, I don't see that many who IMHO will hit 500:
Bonds - Has enough pride that if he has one subpar season I think he'll be gone. 700 is in range but who knows how much longer his body can hold up.
Sosa - 33 years old and at 496. The guy has dominated the league for years, 500 or 600 or 700 is neither surprising nor an insult to baseball.
Griffey Jr - If he doesn't recover from his injury he'll probably get there anyway, he's only 32 and has 467 HR. Then again, everyone was picking him to break Aaron's record before he turned 25, and his best season was 1993 when he was 23. He clinched the HOF before he even went to the Reds. Personally, I don't think he's ever going to fully recover from his injuries, and 500 HR will take multiple years to reach but he'll get there.
Mcgriff - 39 and has 477. He may squeak past 500 by playing longer than he should, but it's going to be close. I don't think his inclusion in the 500 club would be surprising to anyone who watched him play in Toronto in the 80's.
Palmeiro - 38 and a first ballot hall of famer, sitting at 488. Another guy who is not really a surprise.
Gonzalez - 33 and showing his age. 405 HR. I would guess he'll end up with about 460.
No one else currently playing is really in reach of it. Bagwell is one of the greatest first basemen in history, but he's 34 and in decline with 379 HR. Will probably end up in the mid 400's. Gary Sheffield is 33, starting to decline, and has 340 HR. He's probably lost 100 HR's by playing in extreme pitcher's parks, but that's his problem, not mine. No one else on the active list is more than an extreme longshot for 500.
While 500 is an easier number to get to now, without a doubt, I don't see anyone who is going to reach it without being HOF material anyway.
Jason