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GForce · 01-28-2005, 05:50 PM

My main thing has always been, I don't care what scouts THINK he can do, I want to know what he's done. That's not to say I don't use scouting reports...I certainly use what Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and John Sickels have to say and, being in the media, I have contacts all over that I can draw upon for scouting info. I've also traded e-mails with many minor leaguers over the years (a great resource...many sites have e-mail addresses for their players, many of whom get a kick out of the fact they are being done in a video game...many don't respond, but if you can get a few who do it's a nice little addition to have.)

My problem with scouts is how many of them look at "tools," as much or more than looking at what a guy has done. Tell me all you want this guy could hit 30 home runs...if he's hitting homers barely at or lower than his league average in low-A or A-ball, guess what...odds are he'll never hit 30 in the majors no matter how big, or how strong or what "Light tower power" he has. I believe in production, plain and simple, and rate guys accordingly.

I also don't believe in too much info, but there's info that just isn't too relevant, and that's the kicker. Mike talks about Jack Wilson, for example. IMO, people can talk about his grittyness or intelligence all they want, the numbers are the numbers...there's no reason to think he could steal 40 bases because he hasn't done it. If you try to extrapolate "well, this guy COULD do this and this if this and this happens" you'll make far more mistakes than you'll get right, IMO. Take a track record, compare it with track records around him, and evaluate.

My spreadsheets have been talked about a lot, and I only released them once, 2 or 3 years ago and they've evolved greatly since then. People have acted as though they must be rocket science or whatever, and perhaps my talking about them as the core of the TotalMinors franchise brought that about, but all they really are are statistical organization tools. League averages for every level, every league for the past 3 years in any significant offensive and pitching related category. Player blocks, which include places to enter how a player performed in those past 3 years and places to enter info to draw the proper league data in, and other spaces to run the calculations based on those figures and my formulas to spit out statistical ratings (both current and potential).

If you're into sabermetrics then you know the vital figures to look out for. BUt big things to consider are performance relative to the league and the age relative to the league. Is the better prospect the 22 year old performing 15% above Eastern League level or the 24 year old performing 22% over EL level...the 22 year old, even though the 24 year old had a better year, because the 24 year old is also old for the league. This is a HUGE factor and something that needs to be weighed in. This holds true for pitchers as well. Look at the vitals...K/BB ratio, K/IP...look at plate discipline for hitters (this goes WELL beyond strikeouts).

Also, know that NO formula is perfect. Expect outliers but know how to recognize them. This is the only time I really use scouting reports for a big outlook...if every scouting report says this kid will be a useful utility guy and maybe get a starting job at some point, and you have him at 25 hrs with a .380 OBP...you've probably done something wrong. I've had plenty of them and the more I did it the more I learned how to see them. You can find old feedback threads on TotalMinors and see what I mean.

* Loads of self-indulgent resume-type junk deleted *

I guess the best endorsement is that Markus enlisted me to develop the rosters for OOTP5, and I was to do the rosters for OOTP6 before other issues intervened (regrettably, of my own and others' doing). I've been fortunate to have a heck of a track record and have gotten a lot of praise along the way. I'm most thankful for that.

I'm always glad to discuss this stuff. Regrettably, time does not allow me to do TotalMinors anymore because life with a wife, 3 kids and a busy job doesn't let me work on the Opening Day deadline schedule anymore (at least not for free

). If you want to know more about methods, please let me know.

GH

01-28-2005, 05:50 PM	#3
GForce Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 3,458 Infractions: 0/2 (2)	My main thing has always been, I don't care what scouts THINK he can do, I want to know what he's done. That's not to say I don't use scouting reports...I certainly use what Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and John Sickels have to say and, being in the media, I have contacts all over that I can draw upon for scouting info. I've also traded e-mails with many minor leaguers over the years (a great resource...many sites have e-mail addresses for their players, many of whom get a kick out of the fact they are being done in a video game...many don't respond, but if you can get a few who do it's a nice little addition to have.) My problem with scouts is how many of them look at "tools," as much or more than looking at what a guy has done. Tell me all you want this guy could hit 30 home runs...if he's hitting homers barely at or lower than his league average in low-A or A-ball, guess what...odds are he'll never hit 30 in the majors no matter how big, or how strong or what "Light tower power" he has. I believe in production, plain and simple, and rate guys accordingly. I also don't believe in too much info, but there's info that just isn't too relevant, and that's the kicker. Mike talks about Jack Wilson, for example. IMO, people can talk about his grittyness or intelligence all they want, the numbers are the numbers...there's no reason to think he could steal 40 bases because he hasn't done it. If you try to extrapolate "well, this guy COULD do this and this if this and this happens" you'll make far more mistakes than you'll get right, IMO. Take a track record, compare it with track records around him, and evaluate. My spreadsheets have been talked about a lot, and I only released them once, 2 or 3 years ago and they've evolved greatly since then. People have acted as though they must be rocket science or whatever, and perhaps my talking about them as the core of the TotalMinors franchise brought that about, but all they really are are statistical organization tools. League averages for every level, every league for the past 3 years in any significant offensive and pitching related category. Player blocks, which include places to enter how a player performed in those past 3 years and places to enter info to draw the proper league data in, and other spaces to run the calculations based on those figures and my formulas to spit out statistical ratings (both current and potential). If you're into sabermetrics then you know the vital figures to look out for. BUt big things to consider are performance relative to the league and the age relative to the league. Is the better prospect the 22 year old performing 15% above Eastern League level or the 24 year old performing 22% over EL level...the 22 year old, even though the 24 year old had a better year, because the 24 year old is also old for the league. This is a HUGE factor and something that needs to be weighed in. This holds true for pitchers as well. Look at the vitals...K/BB ratio, K/IP...look at plate discipline for hitters (this goes WELL beyond strikeouts). Also, know that NO formula is perfect. Expect outliers but know how to recognize them. This is the only time I really use scouting reports for a big outlook...if every scouting report says this kid will be a useful utility guy and maybe get a starting job at some point, and you have him at 25 hrs with a .380 OBP...you've probably done something wrong. I've had plenty of them and the more I did it the more I learned how to see them. You can find old feedback threads on TotalMinors and see what I mean. * Loads of self-indulgent resume-type junk deleted * I guess the best endorsement is that Markus enlisted me to develop the rosters for OOTP5, and I was to do the rosters for OOTP6 before other issues intervened (regrettably, of my own and others' doing). I've been fortunate to have a heck of a track record and have gotten a lot of praise along the way. I'm most thankful for that. I'm always glad to discuss this stuff. Regrettably, time does not allow me to do TotalMinors anymore because life with a wife, 3 kids and a busy job doesn't let me work on the Opening Day deadline schedule anymore (at least not for free ). If you want to know more about methods, please let me know. GH Last edited by GForce; 01-28-2005 at 06:16 PM.