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-   -   Lucas Giolito (https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com//showthread.php?t=306200)

Bunktown Ballers 08-23-2019 04:57 PM

Lucas Giolito
 
How is it that Lucas Giolito 2019 Live Card is a 73 with movement & control being 47 each. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball


In 151 innings

51 walks
194 strikeouts
3.20 ERA
1.095 WHIP
I think PT Team just adjust players they want...like Bo Bichette,,,Vlad, Jr.
but White Sox players Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada are in the 60 & 70 card rating. These players & many others should be corrrectly modified league wide. Tired of playing same players over and over every season while some great ball player are relegated to obscurity.


Yes, I'm a White Sox fan, but I'm sure everyone has some on their favorite team deserving upgardes...Those 3 I mentioned are grossly misrepresented by their ranking & attributes


BB

Argonaut 08-23-2019 05:05 PM

No idea. I checked Giolito's stats and you're right, he deserves a lot better.

3.20 FIP matches his 3.20 ERA so it's not that. Excellent strikeouts compared to walks. Doesn't deserve 47 Control.

LIVE cards are a bit of a wasteland aside from Trout.

Maxfire5 08-23-2019 05:19 PM

It's ZIPS projections. It uses career/season numbers, along with projections for ZIPS. I'm sure it includes k/9, bb/9 and hr/9 along with a number of metrics. This is combined with live data for the year. I don't obviously have the formulas, just a summary from a number of other posts asking similar questions.

You also have to look at ratings relative to historic years from which other cards are developed based on. Compare moncada's year to anyone else and it's nothing special. Projections also weren't high on him either.

Believe me, I understand. I'm a royals fan. Hunter dozier was OPSing at a crazy rate, and Soler is hitting HRs are a good rate, especially given ballpark factors. Both are low 70s.

chazzycat 08-23-2019 06:22 PM

It's gotta be his horrible performance from previous years dragging down the projections. That's the only explanation that makes sense, because he's pitching excellently.

webdox 08-23-2019 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers (Post 4529484)
I think PT Team just adjust players they want...

Yes they do but based on a formula they use that they have hinted at several times here and that Maxfire5 summarized. Not on a case by case basis nor haphazardly. If that was their game all the LIVE cards would have higher ratings / higher prices...

Bunktown Ballers 08-23-2019 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat (Post 4529506)
It's gotta be his horrible performance from previous years dragging down the projections. That's the only explanation that makes sense, because he's pitching excellently.




All that sounds gret but rookie cards exceeding 2nd year LIVE cards are bunk. I never could get a answer on how cards are rated and nowing I'm getting told stuff that dont sound right. JOSE ABREU has had agreat career & he's rated card is a 69....please.....25+ 100 RBI avg a year so the career stats used as way to rate cards are bunk. THe 4 players I mentioned are grossly underrated....How heck can Tatis, Jr., Vlad, Bichette (3 weeks of stats) with no previous career be rated so high...I'm talking ALL live cards, non POTM, FUTURE, etc....something ain't right...These players are not the only one Yordan Alavez LIVE card is a 66 and he has broken MLB records. but a 66 while Tatis, Jr, Vlad, Jr...skyrocket...just saying & nothing on you just happening to qoute you...

OMGPuppies 08-23-2019 07:11 PM

How come some many relievers' ratings jave plummeted though.

chazzycat 08-23-2019 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers (Post 4529515)
All that sounds gret but rookie cards exceeding 2nd year LIVE cards are bunk.

It's just how projections work. Rookies with excellent minor league stats at the right age have high projections. But once they start to accrue major league experience, for example 175 innings of below-replacement-level pitching, like Giolito put up last year, the projections change to reflect that experience. So the projections are still not 100% sold on this year's breakout quite yet. That doesn't mean the game devs are doing it on purpose. I'm sure if he keeps pitching well, his card will continue to improve, and next year's card will be better. What more do you want?

OMGPuppies 08-23-2019 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat (Post 4529529)
It's just how projections work. Rookies with excellent minor league stats at the right age have high projections. But once they start to accrue major league experience, for example 175 innings of below-replacement-level pitching, like Giolito put up last year, the projections change to reflect that experience. So the projections are still not 100% sold on this year's breakout quite yet. That doesn't mean the game devs are doing it on purpose. I'm sure if he keeps pitching well, his card will continue to improve, and next year's card will be better. What more do you want?

I guess Giolito's ratings are what they are because he is no longer a prospect and has no track record of major league success.

Dogberry99 08-23-2019 11:12 PM

Tim Anderson has 10 walks in 382 plate appearances. Poor EYE ratings will destroy a card's OVR.

Just compare the Gold Pudge Rodriguez or cards like some of the Tony Olivas to low diamonds with high EYE ratings who are not particularly good at anything else (what I like to refer to as the Pee Wee Reese Effect, personally, though others certainly fit the template - Harland Clift anyone?).

Remember, its not just that they're good. They have to be good at the right things to have a good OVR.

Maxfire5 08-24-2019 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers (Post 4529515)
All that sounds gret but rookie cards exceeding 2nd year LIVE cards are bunk. I never could get a answer on how cards are rated and nowing I'm getting told stuff that dont sound right. JOSE ABREU has had agreat career & he's rated card is a 69....please.....25+ 100 RBI avg a year so the career stats used as way to rate cards are bunk. THe 4 players I mentioned are grossly underrated....How heck can Tatis, Jr., Vlad, Bichette (3 weeks of stats) with no previous career be rated so high...I'm talking ALL live cards, non POTM, FUTURE, etc....something ain't right...These players are not the only one Yordan Alavez LIVE card is a 66 and he has broken MLB records. but a 66 while Tatis, Jr, Vlad, Jr...skyrocket...just saying & nothing on you just happening to qoute you...

I mean, miguel Cabrera and albert pujols are 1000 times the player jose abreu was, but they're low rated too. It's based off career data, peak performance and expected downturn in production from aging. Abreu is worth 1.3 WAR at this point. That's not great, especially in the context of 120 years of baseball. A 60s/70s rating is easily appropriate, or even overrated.

Vlad jr. Is dropping bad. Tatis jr is worth 4.2 WAR and tearing things up. He started at a 80ish, and because of how he's done, he's now a 100.

Giolito is worth 5.3 WAR this season and has a career WAR of 5.0 meaning from 16-18 he was worth -0.3 WAR. Those projections are tough to overturn when it's based on 3 years of below replacement level production. Next year he will be better.

You're not getting told wrong info, just info you don't like.

JKap 08-24-2019 02:50 PM

I would like to believe that ratings are based on longer term performance but then explain the extreme changes that take place for some players on a weekly basis. For some veteran players it is a roller coaster, leading to the conclusion that very short-term performance is the key. For example, Will Smith blows a save and he drops from the 90s to a low silver.

In comparison, MLB The Show does base ratings on historical performance and does a much better job of smoothing out changes and applying accurate ratings.

I was looking forward to player updates in OOTP, but the system is such a mess, it just becomes stupid to watch.

Maxfire5 08-24-2019 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKap (Post 4529770)
I would like to believe that ratings are based on longer term performance but then explain the extreme changes that take place for some players on a weekly basis. For some veteran players it is a roller coaster, leading to the conclusion that very short-term performance is the key. For example, Will Smith blows a save and he drops from the 90s to a low silver.

In comparison, MLB The Show does base ratings on historical performance and does a much better job of smoothing out changes and applying accurate ratings.

I was looking forward to player updates in OOTP, but the system is such a mess, it just becomes stupid to watch.

Think he dropped from a 94 to an 85 that week, not all the way to silver. Has recently dropped to a silver now. His movement is tanking because he's been subject to the long ball in the last 15 games while his k/9 hasn't changed much meaning his stuff is unchanged. Same with his bb/9.

The overall is a compilation of all 3 all. At one point he had allowed like 3 hrs in 40 innings. Now he's allowed 5 in his ~15. It has to account for that somehow. His card is still a very good card, but will be prone to the longball. Overalls aren't everything. That's why a 69 Gwynn is playable in Perfect.

Bunktown Ballers 08-24-2019 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxfire5 (Post 4529716)
I mean, miguel Cabrera and albert pujols are 1000 times the player jose abreu was, but they're low rated too. It's based off career data, peak performance and expected downturn in production from aging. Abreu is worth 1.3 WAR at this point. That's not great, especially in the context of 120 years of baseball. A 60s/70s rating is easily appropriate, or even overrated.

Vlad jr. Is dropping bad. Tatis jr is worth 4.2 WAR and tearing things up. He started at a 80ish, and because of how he's done, he's now a 100.

Giolito is worth 5.3 WAR this season and has a career WAR of 5.0 meaning from 16-18 he was worth -0.3 WAR. Those projections are tough to overturn when it's based on 3 years of below replacement level production. Next year he will be better.

You're not getting told wrong info, just info you don't like.




No, Just bad rating from those that can pinpoint who & when & how they want to rate their favoerite players. It can be seen across PT rosters & players. All these if ands & but explanations don't mean you right because a different person in charge will rate the players he wants. It can be seen through PT. Some players rating are just stupid going one way or another. And another reason I hate posting to this board was your last stupid asinine sentence (You're not getting told wrong info, just info you don't like) NO, just don't like ppl like you explaining with smartass remarks) And to be rating don't mean anything bc it's just random outcomes. If rating did matter there wouldnt be 200 Bryce Harpers or Manny Machados card in AH. They are junk cards. $$$$$

Bunktown Ballers 08-24-2019 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by webdox (Post 4529510)
Yes they do but based on a formula they use that they have hinted at several times here and that Maxfire5 summarized. Not on a case by case basis nor haphazardly. If that was their game all the LIVE cards would have higher ratings / higher prices...


Who is Maxfire5 to summarize anything? Does he do the ratings, formula?

Maxfire5 08-24-2019 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers (Post 4529844)
Who is Maxfire5 to summarize anything? Does he do the ratings, formula?

I'm just summarizing the points the devs have made on countless posts about "Why isn't X player higher?"

Sorry for trying to be helpful.

Bunktown Ballers 08-24-2019 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxfire5 (Post 4529716)
I mean, miguel Cabrera and albert pujols are 1000 times the player jose abreu was, but they're low rated too. It's based off career data, peak performance and expected downturn in production from aging. Abreu is worth 1.3 WAR at this point. That's not great, especially in the context of 120 years of baseball. A 60s/70s rating is easily appropriate, or even overrated.

Vlad jr. Is dropping bad. Tatis jr is worth 4.2 WAR and tearing things up. He started at a 80ish, and because of how he's done, he's now a 100.

Giolito is worth 5.3 WAR this season and has a career WAR of 5.0 meaning from 16-18 he was worth -0.3 WAR. Those projections are tough to overturn when it's based on 3 years of below replacement level production. Next year he will be better.

You're not getting told wrong info, just info you don't like.


All this is bunk..Blake Snell is still a (93 Diamond Card) with a War of 1.3. Who was Balke Snell before last year? A zero A Nobody bum pitcher. You must have Blake Snell on all your teams if you the one who figures all this crap out. So your expalnation of a career (Abreu).292 hitter that averages 32 HR 109 RBI 89 Runs 5.0 Avg War a year is deserving of a 69 card is BUNK, try again, Bud

Maxfire5 08-24-2019 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers (Post 4529849)
All this is bunk..Blake Snell is still a (93 Diamond Card) with a War of 1.3. Who was Balke Snell before last year? A zero A Nobody bum pitcher. You must have Blake Snell on all your teams if you the one who figures all this crap out. So your expalnation of a career (Abreu).292 hitter that averages 32 HR 109 RBI 89 Runs 5.0 Avg War a year is deserving of a 69 card is BUNK, try again, Bud

I have 1 live card on my team. I don't play with lives as they generally don't meet the meta of the game, which is high contact on offense, good defense, and high movement (limiting HR) as pitchers. MLB currently favors HR on offense, and high strikeouts so it just doesn't make sense for me to use them.


Jose Abreu had a 5 WAR season once in his career, per fangraphs.
2014=5.3
2015=3.3
2016=2.0
2017=4.2
2018=1.2
2019=0.9

3 Year projections put him at 1.7, 1.3, 0.8 over his next 3 seasons. Not exactly setting the world on fire.


For Blake Snell, the Cy Young winner from last year; hardly a nobody.
2017: 1.8
2018: 4.8
2019: 2.5

They still project another 0.8 WAR for the end of the season, meaning a 3.3 WAR season. His FIP is in the low 3s this year, with last year being below 3. His overall is very heavily influenced by his k/9 resulting in a high stuff rating.


Edit:

Lucas Giolito

2016= -0.6
2017= 0.3
2018= -0.1
2019= 4.7

Projections for the rest of the season at 0.6 WAR. Further, even though his ERA is 3.2 on the year, because of his bad career to date, his projection for the rest of the season puts him at a 4.2 ERA for his last 6 starts. As you can see, heavily influenced by the year before. Next year, I'd expect ZIPS to be nicer to him.

Bunktown Ballers 08-24-2019 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxfire5 (Post 4529848)
I'm just summarizing the points the devs have made on countless posts about "Why isn't X player higher?"

Sorry for trying to be helpful.


MY point bud....You just like me a player. No sense in you telling me what I do & don't like nor anyone else. People like you have a tendancy to give OOTP a bad name bc ppl get the general idea you are part of OOTP. when in fact your not. Stop trying to impose whatever you think you know on other ppl. My beliefs don't mean I right of wrong but to try to expain what you don't know is BS. Give advicee but quit acting like you part of OOTP. I believe the devs forget or on purpose don't update every card (which they should) because it's overwhelming them, but they put the game out & you got to make everyone happy across the board. They can't & shouldn't pick & choose who to update. Not fair to the $$$$$ people spend on here. I've been with OOTP since Season Ticket & I buy the game every year. But i'm losing confidence in what they doing because (I feel) PT is overwhelming them. I wish they had never made PT bc it will eventually kill OOTP. I hope I can get the courage up to never play PT after this version....It's addicting (they know it) and has taken away from the game I love...OOTP...all about the $$$$$

Maxfire5 08-24-2019 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers (Post 4529856)
MY point bud....You just like me a player. No sense in you telling me what I do & don't like nor anyone else. People like you have a tendancy to give OOTP a bad name bc ppl get the general idea you are part of OOTP. when in fact your not. Stop trying to impose whatever you think you know on other ppl. My beliefs don't mean I right of wrong but to try to expain what you don't know is BS. Give advicee but quit acting like you part of OOTP. I believe the devs forget or on purpose don't update every card (which they should) because it's overwhelming them, but they put the game out & you got to make everyone happy across the board. They can't & shouldn't pick & choose who to update. Not fair to the $$$$$ people spend on here. I've been with OOTP since Season Ticket & I buy the game every year. But i'm losing confidence in what they doing because (I feel) PT is overwhelming them. I wish they had never made PT bc it will eventually kill OOTP. I hope I can get the courage up to never play PT after this version....It's addicting (they know it) and has taken away from the game I love...OOTP...all about the $$$$$

That's fair about your beliefs. At not point did I tell you how to play the game. I'm not trying to impart something that I believe is wrong. I really am just trying to save the dev's time from stating what they said, because they've said it so many times before. They very well could have "favorites" for lack of a better term and boost ratings to assist in sales. It's what I'd do. Point being, they've still directly stated that at the start of the season, it is weighted heavily on projections (assuming ZIPS), and as the season goes on, live data weighs into it (which also effects ZIPS projections).

I'm a homer as much as anybody. I think Whit is criminally underrated. He's 2nd in the Majors in hits, and led the majors last year. I think Hunter Dozier is underrated too. But when you look at the ZIPS Projections, it's just not favorable to them.

ZIPS wasn't favorable to the Royals in 2014 or 2015 when they went to back to back World Series. I think in both seasons, they projected losing records even.

Unrelated, I just pulled a POTM Tim Anderson card, so hey, maybe conversing with a White Sox fan gave me some luck.


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