Have you ever seen a runner thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double?
or trying to score on a wild pitch or passed ball? they get thrown out all the time trying to score from 2nd with 2 outs but I've never seen these two scenarios
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Very, very seldom. Maybe twice in the last 100 games I have played out. I have seen more players thrown out trying for a triple.
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I agree with Reed. Very rare. Don't even remember the last time I saw it happen.
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Another one is an inside the park homerun. ALWAYS safe. Never seen one thrown out.
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I've seen runners trying to stretch a single into a double get thrown out.
There are a lot of things I've never seen. One that bothers me the most is the cut off man throwing out a runner at a base other than home. |
I have guys on my team getting thrown out trying to stretch singles into doubles at least like 5-10 times a season.
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I have seen it in OOTP and it is rare. My first thought, when I first read this thread, was "how often do I see that when I watch a real game?" And I have to say I can't remember the last time I saw it, and I watch quite a few games. So my real life observation is that it is a rare play IRL and my guess is OOTP probably has it right or close to right. Not saying you're wrong and my observation is definitely based on feel.:) If you do have research showing real life numbers it would be interesting to see. |
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it's a bit of a guess too, as far as reasoning...
in ootp, it's simply a % of the outs at 2nd will be written in the pbp as that type of outcome. i don't think the engine resolves beyond proportion of occurence. i.e. it' snot looking at a player and rolling the dice at "1B" whether that player decides to go for 2nd base or not... there's no 'role-playing' element liek that i don't think. the engine is probably 300-500KB.. seriously. 99.99% of the game by bytes is a pretty facade. *not criticism, it's inevitable for any game like this. even adding all the things necesary to make that decisions per player wouldn't be much added (not the hard part for that type of addition - startification of players in an appropriate and real-world accurate way would be the real effort - like using personality along with baserunning and such -- selfish, stupid player smore likely to try somethig risky). asthetic stuff for us to read, but still in proportion. |
Using a script to scan OOTP game logs (and whatever settings we have here), in about 24 games of our 32-team online league we've had the following runners thrown out trying to advance to:
2B: 9 3B: 55 Home: 148 |
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Thanks. |
The script searches for the following phrases:
OUT at second base trying to stretch hit Runner from 2nd tries for 3rd Runner from 2nd tags up Runner from 3rd tries for Home Runner from 3rd tags up So that's all I can say right now. I'd have to page through the whole set by hand to see which, if any, were attempts at inside the park homers. |
I can say that none were credited with a triple, so there's that. :)
I should note that inside the park homers are pretty rare, and this is only essentially a month of games. So I wouldn't say anything about inside the park homers here. I would say that it shows runner do clearly attempt to stretch singles into doubles on occasion. Someone else would have to say if this is enough or too many or whatever. |
Of the plays in which runners were thrown out at home, the batters were credited with:
15: Fly outs (tag ups) 94: Singles 39: Doubles |
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FWIW, we've had three Inside the Park homers in the four weeks worth of games in that sample size above.
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I've seen a good amount of runners thrown out at second, enough that I can recognize when it's going to happen based on how the PBP is unfolding.
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