Hall of Fame or nah?
 

I posted this yesterday in my dynasty thread after I noticed Jonny Toner retired, but for this one time I am looking for some broader feedback. The first thought I had was sadness, the second was "but what about the Hall of Fame"?

In traditional sense, he likely won't get in. Not even 200 wins! What a weakling.

However, that does not tell half the story. He was Pitcher of the Year four times in a frankly insane 8-year peak during which he was hands down the best pitcher in either subleague. He was the ultimate excitement. He would sneeze mid-windup and the batter would still strike out. Nobody had a whiff on the strikeout crown… unless arm woes curtailed his season. He won two triple crowns, and he could have won more if the mid-2010s Raccoons hadn't been… consistently able to put a winning package together thanks to some braindead GM making a few numb moves *despite* having, at first, Toner paired with then-rapidly-aging future Hall of Famer Nick Brown atop the rotation, then later a trio of aces in the rotation for a number of years (and none of them aged well).

And then at 30 he literally came apart. Defense had a hand in that 3.51 ERA, but even then the writing was on the wall. He would come even close to a qualifying amount of innings only once more in his career. It was always more injuries and even more injuries after that.

That year after he became a free agent I was close to resigning him but ultimately bailed on the price tag because he would spend half the season on the DL and the Raccoons were continuously cash-strapped. The Crusaders had cash coming out of every body opening, and they didn't mind. They got 60 superficially decent innings with lots of red flags. From there, Toner tingled through all the terrible teams that would take a flyer on him. That was already sad to see…

And now he is retired and will be on the ballot in a few years, and I come back to the original question:

Hall of Fame or nah?

I tend towards nodding him in because his peak was so blindingly stellar. But maybe my view is distorted because I did some 2k fist pumps whenever he rung up another sucker daring to try to breath the same air as Jonny. But... best pitcher of the decade, hands down! You would not hold the injuries against him, would you?

Well, would you? :confused:

I vote yes. His metrics are just about all above HOF average in your universe, and that 8-year peak of his was certainly something.

yep. look like a HOFer to me. those 8 years are insane.

I vote yes.

A reluctant yes from me. I like to see a little more longevity from starting pitchers' careers, but he was probably one of the top 2-3 guys in the game for about eight years, so I'll say yes.

Just curious, did he get hurt in 2022?

Those 2 silver sluggers put it over the top for me, I'm gonna have to say yes.

Definite yes.

Meh. He's basically Dwight Gooden/Orel Hershiser/Johan Santana - all guys who had outstanding years and who could be considered the top pitchers when they were at their peak, but who couldn't string together enough of those years to have a HOF-worthy career.

On the other hand, it appears that your HOF has an open admission policy, so I say let him in.

Yay, opinions. Thx!

All the partial seasons on his ledger are due to injuries, except his rookie season, where the Raccoons called him up after conceding defeat in late July, trading a bunch of guys for the #19 prospect and filling the holes with their top prospects including Toner and 3B Matt Nunley, who went on to win Rookie of the Year honors.

Four actually, and he also stole some 30 bases during his career - a true five-tool player! :laugh:

Boy, would I have liked him to add a few more years.

My HOF has about the same number of players than the MLB version (accounting for league age and size). Part of the problem might be that OOTP gives a lot of weight to the player's ballot (up to 25-30% I surmise from keen observation) and since I usually file a (nearly) full ballot, a lot of guys get inducted. Are there some players in there that would probably not belong? Definitely! I f.e. willed my former awesome CF Neil Reece who could never stay healthy and fell just short of even 2,000 hits into the HOF by my power ballot (took a few years, though), and, well, I am usually able to fill my ballot just by going through the nominees, one by one, and every single one makes me say "wow, he killed us year after year! And HE killed us year after year! Oh, and THAT GUY …!" :laugh:

Without a doubt I say he belongs. As far as his 2 injury years in that 8 year span, they were certainly still very productive. In 2016 he managed a 150 ERA+ and a 5.1 WAR. In 2019 he had a 174 ERA+ and a 4.6 WAR. So even with those 2 "injury marred" years he still showed excellence. He deserves that HOF beside his name!

No for me but I'm a very small hall guy.

Your guy's JAWS score is 57.0. IRL, here are the pitchers that range from 56.5 JAWS to 57.5 JAWS: Zack Greinke (56.5), Kevin Brown (56.6), Vic Willis (56.6), Bob Caruthers (56.7), Rick Reuschel (56.7), Clayton Kershaw (57.1), Roy Halladay (57.5), and Juan Marichal (57.5). Greinke and Kershaw are active pitchers who I consider to be above the HoF threshold. Kevin Brown and Rick Reuschel, are glaring omissions from the RL HoF IMHO. Vic Willis, Roy Halladay, and Juan Marichal are in the HoF. The only one in that list that I consider to be not quite up to snuff is Bob Caruthers, who only pitched nine seasons so he's not eligible for the honour, and he pitched in the 19th century, which was a weird time in pitching and very different from what we saw once the American League came into being.

Also, your guy has a 152 ERA+. Of the top 100 RL SP in JAWS (counting stat that is a quick and dirty way to measure the quality of a pitcher), there are two pitchers with an ERA+ at 150 or above. Clayton Kershaw (159), and Pedro Martinez (154). That's it. He certainly had a brief career, but he had an awesome peak. Based on that, I say put him in.

I'd also say that your average HoF JAWS score is a bit low at 50. That should probably be more like your floor for HoF induction. There are 18 RL HoFers below 50 JAWS: Early Wynn (49.8), Sandy Koufax (47.5), Burleigh Grimes (46.9), Whitey Ford (45.8), Dizzy Dean (44.6), Eppa Rixey (44.5), Bob Lemon (43.5), Waite Hoyt (43.1), Addie Joss (41.5), Jack Chesbro (41.3), Chief Bender (40.9), Herb Pennock (40.5), Jack Morris (38.3), Catfish Hunter (38.1), Lefty Gomez (37.1), Candy Cummings (in as Pioneer/Executive: 36.2), Rube Marquard (30.9), and Jesse Haines (27.2). Wynn, Koufax, Grimes and Ford would need further consideration, but I don't see the others, so 50 JAWS would probably make for a decent entry level/borderline. I'd say 55 and above should probably go in. 45 and below should not, and between 45 and 55 you're gonna have to put your thinking cap on and separate the wheat from the chaff. Just a rough, general guideline of course. It's your game. Do what you think is right.

As an avid reader of your dynasty I'm very upset that you didnt sign him to a minor league deal and have him retire a Raccoon.

Great point. I probably wouldn't have thought of that.

Yes for me - & I'm more of a small - mid size hall guy.

For me, if you are one of the top 4-5 starting pitchers in the league for 4-5 years, or top 2-3 players at your position for 4-5 years, you are a hall of famer.

Really, if you look at players by position, with some people having career years, ups/downs, etc, there really are not very many who are consistently amongst the 'best' at their position for that many years.

Toner was very Koufax-ian hes absolutely a HOF'er

Exactly what I was thinking. An eight year peak to Koufax' six, though Koufax' peak was more spectacular. :thumbup1:

Looks like one to me.

Thirded.

Reading the OP was giving me all kinds of Koufax vibes so I went to Koufax's stats page to find:

165-87, 2324.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 9.28 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, 54.5 fWAR

Pretty strikingly similar to your man Toner, down to the massive peak and arm troubles.

Toner seems rather like newly inducted HOFer Roy Halladay, whose career numbers aren't terrific but who was a dominating pitcher for a nine or ten year stretch.