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-   -   Harry Lyerly and the Denver Brewers of the WPK (https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com//showthread.php?t=300500)

BirdWatcher 09-13-2019 10:50 PM

Brewers promote Frank Rojas from AAA Chester
 
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With center fielder Joe McPhillips, some think the MVP of the team thus far in 1974, heading to the 10-day IL, the Brewers added Frank Rojas to the 40-man roster and promoted him from AAA Chester to the big league club.

Attachment 647683

Rojas was acquired in a trade a little over a month ago with the Oklahoma City Diamond Kings that sent first baseman Jacob Kieft to OKC. He has done very well in his time with the Big Stick and all indications from the scouting staff are that he be a capable short-term fill-in for McPhillips and brings another right-handed power bat to the club.

BirdWatcher 09-13-2019 10:56 PM

Steve Green extended through 1979!
 
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On June 1st it was announced that the Brewers had signed starting pitcher Steve Green to a 5-year contract extension.
Attachment 647687

Green got off to a tremendous start this season after having a disappointing 1973, though he has come back to earth a bit of late. Still, the Brewers scouting staff remains convinced of Green's middle-of-the-rotation talent and with not much in the way of starting pitching prospects in the system, it was felt it was wise to lock him up through his age 33 season. Green is also very popular among the Denver faithful and his extension was met with an enthusiastic response.
Attachment 647688

BirdWatcher 09-14-2019 07:27 PM

June 3-5, 1974, versus Baltimore
 
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The Brewers return home and start the home stand with a 3-game series against the Baltimore Lords.

Steve Green, in his first start since signing a 5-year contract extension, pitched well in game 1, giving up 4 runs- but only 2 of them earned- on 7 hits in 6 innings pitched while striking out 8 and walking 3, and gets plenty of run support as the Brewers win 10-7. Green improves to 6-3 with a 4.11 ERA. Liann-wei Hua (2.45 ERA) struggled a bit in his 2 innings pitched to let the Lords get back in the game. Hua gave up 3 runs on 5 hits. But Jaden Francis pitched a flawless 9th for his 6th save of 1974 (0.60 ERA.) Right fielder Josh Schaeffer (.314/.430/.424), quietly putting together a fine season, went 2 for 4 in the win, driving in 4 runs and hitting his 3rd HR of 1974. Schaeffer also threw a runner out at 3rd base.
Jonathan Koch (.289/.316/.411) has been slumping for the past several weeks but he got hot in this one and went 2 for 4 with 2 runs scored, 2 RBI, hit his 10th double and 4th HR of the season.
Attachment 647771

Justin Peacock gave the Brewers another fine start in game 2, as he lasted 6 2/3rds innings, giving up 2 runs on 7 hits, and the Brewers got a narrow victory, 4-3. Peacock improves to 2-0 with a 3.04 ERA. Sam Pruiett pitches the last inning and 2/3rds for his 1st save of the year and improves his ERA to 1.40. (It should probably be noted that while the Brewers starting staff is pretty much middle of the pack thus far in the MGL in ERA, the bullpen leads the league in this category.) Another fine game for Josh Schaeffer (.320/.432/.434) who seems to picking up the slack while his long-time compatriot (they were drafted in the same class and essentially rose through the minor leagues together) Joe McPhillips is on the IL. Schaeffer went 2 for 4 again this time with 2 runs scored and hit his 5th double of the year.
Attachment 647772

The Brewers get the series sweep with a 9-3 win in game 3. After Harry Lyerly gave up 3 1st inning runs, saw his team plate 4 in the bottom of the frame to give him an early lead, he then was looking like he was settling in a bit in the 2nd inning before having to leave with an injury that later was revealed to be abdominal soreness that shouldn't keep him from being able to make his next scheduled start. It was at that point that Eric Johnson took to center stage. And boy did he dazzle. Johnson gave the Brewers 6 1/3rd innings of nearly perfect relief- giving up just 1 hit while striking out 1 and walking none. For his heroic performance the young finesse pitcher got his first victory of the 1974 season to go along with a 2.70 ERA. Jonathan Koch (.298/.323/.431) continues his resurgence at the plate, going 2 for 4 for the 3rd time in the series, scoring twice, driving in 3 runs, and hitting his 5th HR of the season. And once again he was joined by Josh Schaeffer (.333/.440/.452) in leading the team offensively as Schaeffer was 3 for 4 with 2 RBI and hit his 6th double.
Attachment 647773

With the series sweep the Brewers are 4 1/2 games ahead of Charlotte, 6 ahead of the L.A. Spinners, and have a 7 game lead on Phoenix.

BirdWatcher 09-15-2019 01:40 PM

1974 WPK Amateur Player Draft
 
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We have reached that magical day, one of the most anticipated of the WPK annual schedule: Draft Day!

Early indications are that this year's draft class might be one of the weaker we have seen thus far.

The early rounds were heavy on second baseman, with 3 of the first 6 players chosen having that as their primary position. It looked to be a particularly weak year for pitching but perhaps because of that there was an early run on starting pitchers and teams tried to at least grab up those handful who might have a chance at the the WPK level. Eight of the first round draft picks were starting pitchers with one reliever chosen at #18.

A look at the 5 top picks will give some idea of the weakness of this class:

Number 1 overall was 18-year old prep star Nick Johnson. While Johnson was primarily a second baseman in his prep career it appears that the Pittsburgh Roadrunners are committed to having him learn first base. Johnson has great contact hitting potential and could be a dangerous gap hitter with his line drive heavy approach. He is very speedy and a smart base runner who can pick up a handful of stolen bases a year as well. But his defense is pretty average which is likely why Pittsburgh is looking to transition him to first. The only problem with that is that he certainly doesn't profile with the type of power that would ordinarily be expected out of a corner infield position. On the other hand, Johnson is believed to have advanced character traits- he's smart, hard working, adaptable- and the feeling is that the young man has a very good chance to reach his potential as a #1 overall pick.
Attachment 647884

Next, the Portland Wild Things chose second baseman Chance Moore out of Las Vegas College (his name is Chance and he went to Las Vegas College- how good is that?). Moore is comparable to Johnson in terms of speed (and a better base stealer), is quite a bit better defensively and likely to stay at second base, and while he doesn't have the sheer contact skill potential of Johnson he should hit for more over-the-fence power. While Moore is something of an introvert and a leader by example only, he does possess, like Johnson, great smarts and a strong work ethic.
Attachment 647885

With the 3rd pick of the draft the San Francisco Velocity grabbed prep outfielder Brian Paul. Although Paul came into the draft as a center fielder, it appears that his future in professional baseball, at least while he is in the S.F. system, is in right field. This makes sense as his range is good but not great while he has a very strong arm. He has natural speed but is not very skilled on the bases. He is unlikely to hit for a very high batting average but could develop advanced power in time. He is a strong leader and hard worker, so even though he is far from a finished product he should have a decent chance of living up to his raw potential.
Attachment 647886

The Milwaukee Cadets then chose the first pitcher of the draft with the 4th pick as they went with 18-year old right hander Sean Camille out of the University of Washington. While there was general consensus that Camille was the best pitcher available in the draft, this should give you some idea of how weak the position was this year. Camille could develop elite stuff over time and almost surely will have above average movement, but his control is suspect, his third pitch- a change up- is likely to never develop to the point of usefulness, and his stamina is sub-par. To many observers he looks ultimately like a capable bullpen arm, but not much more.
Attachment 647887

Different, but equally compelling, concerns surround the 5th pick of the draft: starting pitcher Adam Gonzalez out of the University of Miami. Like Camille, Gonzalez is an 18-year old righty, but unlike Camille Gonzalez could have 4 quality pitches and possesses good stamina. On the other hand, while his movement should be the equal of Camille's, his stuff is thought to be marginal and he will also likely struggle with control. Most concerning though is the perception that Gonzalez is likely to be very injury prone and though he seems to have solid makeup there is a very good chance he will never reach his full potential.
Attachment 647888

Overall in the first round (out of 20 players), 8 starting pitchers were chosen, 4 second baseman, 3 outfielders, 2 shortstops, 1 first baseman, 1 third baseman, and 1 relief pitcher. No catchers were selected in the first round.

pauwoo 09-15-2019 02:03 PM

I kinda like Chance Moore here - he would’ve been my #1 out of these five. Is Pittsburgh pretty well stocked at second?

BirdWatcher 09-15-2019 02:19 PM

The Denver Brewers and the 1974 Draft
 
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The Denver Brewers had the 18th pick in the first round of the 1974 draft and with that pick they chose third baseman Andy Oleson. Oleson, a 21-year old out of El Paso College, profiles as a very good contact hitter with a decent amount of power and good eye at the plate, more in terms of avoiding the strikeout though than drawing bases on balls. He is a slow runner and almost sure never to win any Gold Gloves at third, but he does have a cannon arm so he should be capable at the position. He doesn't standout as having the kind of intangibles the Brewers often seem to value highly, but he has a reputation of being a good teammate.
Attachment 647898

The Brewers had a pick in the supplemental first round as well due to the signing of free agent reliever Jose de los Santos in the offseason. The Brewers believe they may have pulled off the steal of the draft with their selection of two-way player Adrian Darby with this pick. While Darby came into the draft as a third baseman, and was a solid prospect at that position, the Brewers see in him the potential to be a reliever of the caliber de los Santos was in his prime. Which is to say a dominant stopper. He has a cutter that is already fairly developed and profiles as dominant and a curve ball that is less polished but has the same devastating potential. At his peak the Brewers see Darby as having plus stuff, plus movement, and at least average, if not a bit above average, control. He is a hard-throwing ground ball pitcher who pitches with confidence and poise. And like current Brewer Jordan Stephens, Darby can also play third base and gives the team another power bat off the bench. Darby could end up being the real bright spot of this draft.
Attachment 647899

With their 2nd round pick the Brewers drafted 18-year old outfielder Darian Burdzy out of Coastal Carolina University. Burdzy is the cousin of Phoenix Speed Devils center fielder Kenny White and is believed to have good baseball smarts. Burdzy is a fast runner with very good defensive range. He profiles with decent contact skills (thought be already pretty advanced) and a patient approach at the plate, but very little power.
(A note about this pick: I usually shy away from drafting players who were created through my relative player creation process. Just because I feel like I know a bit too much about them and it might not be fair. But in this case, I don't feel like Burdzy is that fantastic a prospect and it just made sense that the team would choose him at this juncture. So there it is.)
Attachment 647900

In the 3rd round the Brewers drafted 21-year old outfielder Jon Williams out of St. Louis College. Williams had a great season for the Blue Hens in 1973 but struggled a bit this Spring and this might have led him to drop a bit in the draft. He is a tremendous fielder with a spectacular arm and possesses top of the line speed and good base running skills. He may never hit for a high average but could become a plus power hitter. And all reports are that he is a likable teammate.
Attachment 647901

At the urging of head scout Nick Meskill, the Brewers chose their first pitcher with their 4th round pick. They took 18-year old right hander Josh Roberts out of Burley High School (Burley, Idaho). Josh has the reputation of having a very strong work ethic and good makeup, has good stamina (he is a finesse pitcher), but likely will never develop his third pitch (change up) and his fastball and slider both profile as just a bit above average. He should develop decent control but will likely underwhelm in terms of stuff and movement and likely projects as a mediocre relief pitcher at best. Still, he is young and hard working and with his funky sidearm delivery he may still develop into at least a good middle inning option to fool a dangerous right handed hitter or two.
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BirdWatcher 09-15-2019 02:33 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pauwoo (Post 4536824)
I kinda like Chance Moore here - he would’ve been my #1 out of these five. Is Pittsburgh pretty well stocked at second?

The Roadrunners current second baseman, Bill Craig, is young and pretty good but not great and also fragile. They have two other second baseman on their current active roster. One of them- Tim Ayala- is a good hitter but a mediocre fielder. And the other- Matt Harrington- is a great field, no hit kind of guy.
Attachment 647903

But they have a pair of pretty good prospects down at single A.
Emiliano Centeno, a scouting discovery out of Venezuela, who profiles as a bat first second baseman.
And Brad Sherman, a first round draft pick in 1970, who is, well, pretty much the same.
Attachment 647904
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So they are pretty deep at this position even if they don't really have anyone who is the full superstar package.

BTW- this is the kind of question I LOVE !
Thank you for asking.
If nothing else, it leads me to look more closely at something I might not have thought to look at otherwise. And it really adds to the immersion of this baseball universe.

BirdWatcher 09-15-2019 03:09 PM

1974 Brewers Draft, continued.
 
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A few other notes and highlights from the Brewers 1974 draft:

Probably the most advanced prospect the Brewers got was 21-year old left fielder Joe McCain out of Austin College. McCain does not profile as a great WPK player but he already basically has the skills to play at the big league level and he has been assigned to debut his professional career as a member of the single A Bainbridge Brawlers. The 6' 4", 220 pound big man is a slow runner and a sub-par fielder, but his hit tool is decent and well-rounded and he has the reputation of being a fine clubhouse leader. There is certainly every possibility that in the next few years McCain might find himself in a big league role as a pinch-hitter. Though in the Brewers crowded outfield it might be a tough road ahead for young Mr. McCain.
Attachment 647908

For very different reasons, 18-year old outfield Rich Gusciora also bears watching. Gusciora may struggle with his approach at the plate in spite of decent gap power potential and an average contact and home run power potential profile. But he possesses very good speed and should be a great fielder with a plus plus arm. He appears to have good intangibles and is still quite young so it is certainly possible he will develop beyond his current hit tool projection and become a valuable player, at least in a bench role.
Attachment 647909

And finally, lets look at Matt Thompson, the Brewers 26th round pick and one of the last players taken in this year's draft. Thompson, a 21-year old relief pitcher out of Dallas College, is unlikely to ever make it to the bigs, mostly due to his very poor movement and abysmal control. Then again, he has an already WPK-ready fastball which should develop into excellence, and an undeveloped slider that could become devastating. His future stuff profiles as near elite. He's also very smart and a hard worker. It will take a near miracle for Thompson to develop into a big league reliever, but it isn't impossible to imagine. For the #527th guy picked, the hard throwing and hard working right hander doesn't look entirely hopeless.
Attachment 647910

Overall, the Brewers chose 7 starting pitchers, 7 outfielders, 3 third baseman (or 5 perhaps, if you include a pair of two-way players who likely will mostly be relief pitchers), 2 shortstops, 2 catchers, 2 first baseman, 2 relief pitchers (both of whom can also play third base), and 1 second baseman.
While the 7 starting pitchers are all unlikely to ever make it to the Brewers rotation, many of them do profile as having the ability to rise to the higher levels of the minors. One of the great weaknesses of the Brewers farm system is the dearth of good starting pitching and it is hoped that this draft will help remedy that a bit, even if it might never impact the big league club directly.

Palaaemon 09-16-2019 12:48 AM

Reply to Bird's player analysis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher (Post 4536849)

It will take a near miracle for Thompson to develop into a big league reliever, but it isn't impossible to imagine. For the #527th guy picked, the hard throwing and hard working right hander doesn't look entirely hopeless.

Say WHAT?!?!? :confused:

You fellas think Bird's been suckin back on grandpas old cough medicine?

BirdWatcher 09-16-2019 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Palaaemon (Post 4536992)
Say WHAT?!?!? :confused:

You fellas think Bird's been suckin back on grandpas old cough medicine?

:D

I just meant to say that it is rare that the very last player I choose in the draft actually has any ratings that have potential to be elite (in this case his stuff rating and 2 possible plus pitches.) And the character traits to make development more likely.
The fact that he is already 21 means there won't be much time for some random talent change to kick in and make him a borderline prospect. I'm talking a guy who might be good enough for a September call-up/cup of coffee. Almost surely no more than that. But stranger things have happened. Not much stranger perhaps, admittedly.

pauwoo 09-16-2019 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher (Post 4537089)
:D

I just meant to say that it is rare that the very last player I choose in the draft actually has any ratings that have potential to be elite (in this case his stuff rating and 2 possible plus pitches.) And the character traits to make development more likely.
The fact that he is already 21 means there won't be much time for some random talent change to kick in and make him a borderline prospect. I'm talking a guy who might be good enough for a September call-up/cup of coffee. Almost surely no more than that. But stranger things have happened. Not much stranger perhaps, admittedly.

Hopefully he can develop some movement, and not kill anybody with his Nuke LaLoosh control. ;)

BirdWatcher 09-16-2019 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pauwoo (Post 4537132)
Hopefully he can develop some movement, and not kill anybody with his Nuke LaLoosh control. ;)

Exactly!
And trust me, I know this is almost surely not going to happen.
But at the very least he actually looks like he will be competent at the lower levels of the organization and possibly even dominant with his wicked fastball.

Plus, there is always the chance, however distant, that he gets boosts in both movement and control, even just to not abysmal (say, 4 or so on both) and the fact that now that he is in our organization it is also possible that in time our scout will see him as even better than first thought (getting a more accurate reading than when he was still a collegiate player.) That one cuts both ways though- he might decide he is even more of a dog than he originally believed.

But just to re-iterate my intention in sharing this (as I perhaps didn't explain this very well before): there were only a few players in the draft chosen after this guy, in what appeared to be a very weak draft. He's horrible yes. But if our scout is right about any of this, he isn't nearly as horrible as a player should be taken at the last minute of the draft.
That was my point. :D

Palaaemon 09-16-2019 08:47 PM

Bird,

I never meant for you or anyone else to take my post serious in any way. :p.

I just thought what you had written about that player sounded...just...hilariously out there! LOL

stevem810 09-16-2019 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pauwoo (Post 4537132)
Hopefully he can develop some movement, and not kill anybody with his Nuke LaLoosh control. ;)

Can he hit? :laugh: Looking forward to the develop report on this guy.

pauwoo 09-16-2019 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevem810 (Post 4537367)
Can he hit? :laugh: Looking forward to the develop report on this guy.

Right? I’d have taken a flier out on the kid for sure. I think he eventually makes the big club - setting the table for the closer. Zacarias Martell will be back there doing his best Crash Davis impression - “I wouldn’t dig in if I were you. Next one might be at your head. I don’t know where it’s gonna go. Swear to God.”

BirdWatcher 09-16-2019 11:12 PM

Well, I'll tell you what- this kid has gotten so much attention now that I guess I better feature a regular report on his minor league path.

He's not much of a hitter but he could develop a little bit of power and a decent eye at the plate. And he should be a slightly above average runner.

Interestingly, I also just noticed that the OSA rates his potential higher than our head scout and sees him as having 2 star potential. Not that I trust the OSA over our head scout Nick Meskill, but it does make me wonder even more why he lasted until almost the exact end of the draft without someone selecting him. I'm sure that far worse players were chosen ahead of him.

When you look at how he currently projects at each level it is clear that control will be his greatest challenge. Anything above the Rookie league level and his control is pretty much bottom of the barrel. Movement rates as pretty average up to the AA level.

I'll keep you all posted. I do like this bit from his scouting report: "His lack of command combined with stuff that can be overwhelming can make his outings an adventure." And hey, who doesn't like an adventure? ;)

Edit: I also just noticed that he played a little middle infield in college and while his infield range is poor (3), otherwise his infield ratings are pretty good, with a 6 error rating, and 7's for infield arm and turn dp. So, in a pinch, he could play a little second base.

BirdWatcher 09-17-2019 06:47 PM

***The View from Outside the Park***
 
As I mentioned recently, I've been thinking a lot lately about the future WPK Hall of Fame. And that has led me to re-read (well, I'm in the midst of this) the Bill James book about the Hall ("Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame"), and it has been quite some time since I last read this.

And this has gotten me to thinking about a few other things too, among them similarity scores as measured by Bill James.

Partly as a result I have started putting together a WPK Encyclopedia in Excel spreadsheet form in which I only add players once they are retired and just the basic cumulative stats that are used to measure the Jamesian Similarity Scores. I know this is kind of silly as the game already does this in more detail, but I find it helpful for me to enter these manually as I catch things I likely missed before. (As the old Poi Dog Pondering song says, "you get to know things better when they go by slow.") And I find that this way I can eyeball the players a bit better and start to get a feel for which ones are the best candidates for putting through the similarity score test together.

I also got to thinking about some of the players I mentioned earlier who are likely HOF'ers from the WPK, and in particular Denver outfielder Ryan Rodgers.
Now of course, James points out that the greatest players are often the ones hardest to find comparable careers for. It is their unusual skills that set them apart as HOF'ers and the stats tend to reflect that.
Still, I got to wondering how similar Ryan Rodgers and fellow outfielder, and likely future WPK HOF'er, Travis Johnson are using James method.

I probably got this idea because they have careers that have spanned the exact same years thus far, are near the same age, have achieved many of the same accomplishments in terms of post-season awards, in-season All-Star appearances, championship rings, etc. Then add to that the fact that they currently have almost identical batting averages and are pretty close in terms of career WAR. (Rodgers and Johnson both have career BA's that round to .334 but Johnson is slightly ahead at .3334 while Rodgers sits at .3339.)

Now had I just taken a closer look at some of their other stats before starting to crunch these similarity score numbers I would have realized they aren't actually that similar. Johnson has hit 152 career home runs, Rodgers only 14. Johnson has stolen 311 bases, Rodgers only 47. So though their batting averages are nearly identical, and their triples and doubles totals are quite close, they really aren't the same type baseball players at all.
In most offensive categories Johnson is clearly superior, and this likely is also why his HOF Monitor score is much higher. The only offensive category where Rodgers has a clear edge is walks (890 to 665.)
Their Similarity Score is 775. Which, if I understand correctly, would qualify them as vaguely similar at best.
And looking beyond the stats for this test, even more differences emerge. While both have primarily been outfielders in their careers, Rodgers was a center fielder for most of his prime playing years, and won Gold Gloves at the position. Even now, at age 35, he is a very excellent fielder, though his slight loss of foot speed makes him more valuable on the corners. Johnson, on the other hand, was primarily a left fielder earlier in his career, and while not defensive liability, he certainly did not possess Rodgers gifts in the field. As he has aged, he finds himself primarily playing first base.


So I started wondering what MLB players might profile as more similar to Ryan Rodgers. When you look at HOF outfielders in MLB, it's hard to find many who hit as few HR's as Rodgers. I thought maybe Richie Ashburn might be a decent fit. So looking just at a comparable period of Ashburn's career, which ended at the age Rodgers currently is, I found that their similarity score was 881. That's a decent match, if not a great one. But it does remove some of Ashburn's better early years. And Ashburn at 35 was not Ryan Rodgers at 35. Rodgers looks like he has several good seasons ahead of him and is having one of the better seasons of his career this year. Ashburn's batting average for the period in question (for Ashburn this was 1953-1962) was quite a bit lower than Rodgers. Though depending upon how long Rodgers plays his career average is likely to drop a bit (although this season so far is actually lifting it higher, as he leads the league with an average over .400.) Ashburn stole more bases but also struck out more often. He also hit fewer doubles than Rodgers, drove in fewer runs, and had much lower SLG.

I started to think that maybe I needed to look to middle infielders to find a better match. I settled on Rod Carew- again just looking at a comparable stretch of his career in terms of age (1972-1981.) Even before making the adjustment for position (though this wasn't quite as large since Carew moved from second to first in the middle of this stretch, so I averaged the two), it was a less strong match than with Ashburn, with a score of 873, which dropped to 849 adjusting for position. Carew's batting average was closer- though also better than Rodgers. He stole way more bases. And hit quite a few more homers. But they were a pretty good match for doubles and triples.

Anyway, not quite sure what the point of all of this is. Except that if I don't move terribly quickly here for a few days this is probably why.
And you can expect to see more data like this in the future.

BirdWatcher 09-17-2019 11:52 PM

WPK Encyclopedia Trivia
 
2 Attachment(s)
Danny Fontes, 1965 Columbus Whalers: 2 games played, 1 plate appearance, 1 home run.

I guess if you only ever get one big league plate appearance, hitting one out of the park and trotting around the bases victoriously isn't the worst outcome.

Attachment 648293
Attachment 648294

Palaaemon 09-18-2019 01:57 AM

Hall of Fame
 
Bird,

I have been slowly putting together a dynasty franchise that I will be posting here in the forums when things are ready. I love what you are doing with Bill James's hall of fame book and similarity scores. Kudos with spreadsheeting the players' stats after they retire.

Something that I have decided to do (just deciding on how many years to wait) is to sort of follow RL mlb history and delay the hall of fame (and by nature the first hall of fame vote) by a sizable number of years. I am also torn on whether to allow the AI to have a say in the vote or just take it over myself after I have everything set up and am satisfied with the system I will have in place. I am strongly leaning toward taking over initially and over time let the AI back in about 10 to 15 years after the opening of the HOF and follow it closely with the spreadsheet. If it is reliable then let the AI do the heavy lifting and check every 5 years to see if anyone was missed.

I had the same idea about setting up a spreadsheet and keeping track of retired players and seeing how each player at each position compared to each other. Start doing this at the first 10 year mark and decide how long you wish to delay the initial vote (if you want to go that way). My reasoning for doing so is too many times in the game we see sub par players inducted early on because there is no other players enshrined at their position with which to compare them to and it can be very difficult to get all positions represented early on because it takes some time. Then we start with a weak HOF and the AI compares future possible inductees to the already HOFers and the hall is potentially further diluted. By delaying the vote by 20, 25, even 30 years you can get a good spreadsheet loaded with HOF potentials at all positions and decide on how many to induct initially, whether all or just the top 5 or 6 maybe, and then keep working through them each year after until you get caught up and you can hopefully have a good solid base of all or at least most positions. I am leaning towards 30 years myself.

Now during the "freeze" time what I would suggest especially since you are like me and play each game (which of course takes some time) keep good notes on each player in the spreadsheet (I will probably just keep those notes on a Word file) because we want to remember all about those old players and why they may have value beyond just the straight numbers. You know what I mean. That value can be the tipping point for induction into the Hall of Fame or the hall of the very good.

I need to go for now, I probably missed something I wanted to say so if so I will send another post later. If you have any questions let me know. :D. If you are not interested in using this, no problem. I understand there is quite a time delay when you play out your games.

Once you have the similarity score ironed out for your spreadsheet please let me know. If you don't mind I would like to utilize that. Thanks bro, gotta go! Have a good night!

BirdWatcher 09-21-2019 11:54 AM

Similarity Score: Cheol-han Lee and Jake Harris
 
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As I've mentioned here many times, almost surely the two best starting pitchers of the first generation of WPK players are the Brewers own Cheol-han Lee and the Columbus Whaler's Jake Harris.

Like I earlier did with outfielders Ryan Rodgers and Travis Johnson, I thought it would be interesting to look at Lee and Harris in terms of their similarity scoring using the Bill James method.

Also like Rodgers and Johnson, there were some amazing likenesses in core stats for Lee and Harris. For instance, at this stage of their careers they have nearly identical career ERA's- with Cheol-han at 2.37 and Jake at 2.38. Their win-loss records are also quite close. Cheol-han currently stands at 159-82 while Jake Harris is a bit better at 162-78. (Harris has started 6 more games than Lee.)

But unlike Rodgers and Johnson, these similar stats did not mask deeper differences. In fact, Lee and Harris score at 960 on the James Similarity Score. Which means they are remarkably similar. And the biggest difference that counted against them on James' scale was handedness- Cheol-han is a rigthy while Harris is a southpaw.
Cheol-han's great stamina has led to him having quite a few more innings pitched (101 more) in spite of pitching six fewer games and also led to him having 115 complete games to Harris' 74 and 38 shutouts compared to Harris' 25. The two are nearly identical in walks allowed but Harris is the better strikeout pitcher (1823 to 1664.) Neither has ever pitched even an inning in relief. Harris will turn 36 before the end of this season while Lee turned 33 in January, so by the time their respective careers are over their numbers might be less similar and Cheol-han has a good chance to exceed Harris in many categories. Cheol-han still profiles as durable while Harris, who has experienced more injuries in his career but none keeping him out of action more than a week (Cheol-han has had exactly one injury in his career, experiencing back spasms that sidelined him for a week this current season), is thought to be in the normal range of injury propensity. Thus far in 1974 Cheol-han is having far more success with his 6-2 record and 2.43 ERA compared to Harris' 5-6, 3.81. The biggest difference for Harris in 1974 seems to be that his walk rate is up while his strikeout rate is down. His BABIP is pretty close to his career average but both his WHIP and FIP are quite a bit worse than his career norms.
As for Cheol-han in 1974, his BABIP is slightly lower than his norm and might indicate some luckiness on his part this season (though the reality is that the Brewers defense is particularly good this year, especially with Joe McPhillips manning center field and Ryan Rodgers moving to the corners of the outfield for most of his starts). Cheol-han's WHIP is very good and a bit below his career average but his FIP and FIP- are uncharacteristically high. Like Harris his strikeout rate is lower than usual but his BB/9 is even better than his career average, though he is giving up HR's at a slightly higher rate.
Attachment 648690
Attachment 648691

All in all, though, Cheol-han Lee and Jake Harris not only look like clearly the best right-handed starter and best left-handed starter of their time, but their careers at this point have been remarkably similar.

BirdWatcher 09-21-2019 01:34 PM

June 7-9, 1974, versus Oklahoma City
 
4 Attachment(s)
The Brewers conclude their home stand with 4 games (in 3 days) against the Oklahoma City Diamond Kings.

In game 1 the Brewers fight back late to tie the game at 4-4 going into extra innings but then give up 2 runs to the Diamond Kings in the 10th inning and are unable to score in the bottom of the frame and lose 6-4. Jordan Stephens giveth and Jordan Stephens taketh away. In the 7th inning Jordan came in as a pinch-hitter and hit a solo HR that helped the Brewers inch back into the game. He stayed in as the pitcher in the 8th inning and pitched well for 2 innings but unfortunately then gave up the big 2-run HR in the 10th inning that lost the game for Denver. Stephens drops to 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA. Starter Cheol-han Lee went 7 innings, giving up 4 runs on 9 hits. Jonathan Koch (.311/.335/.446), currently on a roll at the plate, was 4 for 5 in the game, hitting his 11th double of the season. The recently promoted Frank Rojas went 3 for 5 in his first start with the Brewers. And Chad Brown (.277/.301/.400), in the midst of one of his toughest seasons yet as a big leaguer, was 2 for 4 and hit 2 doubles to get to 9 on the season.
Attachment 648713

The Brewers bounced back in game 2 behind starter Erik Sloan who had one of his better starts of the season. The diminutive lefty worked 7 innings, giving up 2 runs on just 3 hits, striking out 5 and walking 1. The team gave him good run support, especially early in the game, and the home team won 7-4. Sloan improves to 5-4 with a 4.56 ERA. Jaden Francis, having a tremendous season, worked a perfect 9th to secure his 7th save and drop his ERA down to 0.56. The offense was led by Mike Foster as it so often has been this season. Foster (.372/.427/.576) was 2 for 4 with 1 run scored and 3 RBI hitting in the number 3 slot and hit his 7th HR of the season. Jonathan Koch (.315/.338/.447) also stays hot and went 2 for 4 with 2 runs scored in the game. John Flores (.283/.313/.543), who along with Frank Rojas is helping fill in the outfield gap while Joe McPhillips recovers on the IL, went 1 for 3 but his 1 hit was a big 2-out, 2-run HR in the 2nd inning, his 4th long ball of the season.
Attachment 648714

The Brewers take the opening game of a Sunday doubleheader at Centennial Stadium behind the fine pitching of Steve Green. Green worked 7 1/3rd innings, giving up 2 runs on 7 hits while striking out 8 and walking nary a batter. Unfortunately, he was denied a well deserved win as the Brewers didn't break a 2-2 tie until he was gone as they plated 2 in the bottom of the 8th. Reliever Jaden Francis got the win and is now 2-0 and his fantastic ERA drops even lower to 0.51. Bobby Erbakan (.320/.369/.540) was the offensive force in the game, going 3 for 4 with 2 runs scored and hitting his 14th double. Andrew Kennedy (.335/.372/.425) went 2 for 3 and drove in a run. And rookie catcher Zacarias Martell (.275/.400/.367), continuing his fine start, was 2 for 4 with 1 run scored, 1 RBI, and hit his 7th double of the season.
Attachment 648715

The Brewers dropped the night cap, 5-2, and had to settle for a series split against the Diamond Kings. Matt Helm pitched well enough but was saddled with the loss. Helm, the team captain, gave up 3 runs (only 1 earned) on 7 hits in 5 innings pitched. He drops to 5-2 with 2.52 ERA. Mike Foster and Jonathan Koch each went 2 for 4 in the loss. Joe Willemse (.284/.323/.379), who got the start at shortstop, was 2 for 4 at the dish, driving in a run and hitting his 8th double of 1974. He did also commit his 2nd error but by and large has provided the team with great defensive back-up work at 3 infield positions.
Attachment 648716

The Brewers now stand at 37-18 on the season, leading the MGL by 4 games over the still surprising Charlotte Sting. They lead L.A. by 5 and Phoenix by 7 1/2 games. The disappointing Brooklyn Aces have now dropped down to 6th place, just 1 game over .500 and 9 games behind Denver.

BirdWatcher 09-21-2019 02:08 PM

Spinners extend veteran superstar third baseman Hernandez
 
2 Attachment(s)
He is 33-years old but remains one of the premiere players in the WPK and today third baseman Jesus Hernandez signed a 5-year extension with the only WPK team he has ever played for, the Los Angeles Spinners, that could mean he finishes his almost sure Hall-of-Fame career in an L.A. uniform.
Attachment 648731

Hernandez won the 1966 MGL MVP award at the age of 25, led the league in batting average in 1969, has won 7 Gold Glove awards at third base (though the most recent was in 1971), is an 8-time All-Star, and has won 3 Silver Slugger awards. What he doesn't have yet is a championship ring and he hopes he can help lead the L.A. club to the promised land before time runs out on his celebrated career.
Attachment 648732

BirdWatcher 09-21-2019 07:36 PM

June 10-13, 1974, at San Francisco
 
4 Attachment(s)
The Brewers head out on the road and start with a 4-game series versus last place San Francisco Velocity in one of the league's most extreme pitcher's parks, Bank of the West Ballpark.

In the first game, Harry Lyerly produces one of his best starts of the season, taking advantage of the home run suppression provided by the BOW. Lyerly goes 7 innings, allowing 2 runs (neither earned) on 5 hits (no HR) while striking out 3 and walking none. While he deserves a win the game was a 2-2 tie going into the 9th inning when the Brewers scored 3 times to win 5-2. Sam Pruiett, who along with Jaden Francis has led the league's best bullpen, gets the win for his fine inning and 2/3rds and improves to 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA. Ryan Rodgers (.415/.518/.494) continues to lead the league in batting and went 2 for 3 with 2 runs scored and 2 walks in this one. The Brewers got a pair of big hits from pinch hitters in the 9th inning: Josh Schaeffer (.331/.438/.456) hit a run scoring triple off the right field wall with no outs (his 1st triple of the year) and Joe Willemse (.291/.328/.385) hit a 1-out RBI single.
Attachment 648752

The Brewers claimed a fairly easy win in the second game, 6-1. They got a masterpiece from young righty Justin Peacock, who has been quietly building a case for more frequent starts. Peacock went the distance, giving up just 1 run on 6 hits in his 9 innings worked, striking out only 1 but walking not a soul. He improves to 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA. Mike Foster (.378/.428/.574), leading the MGL in WAR among batters, went 3 for 5 in this one and hit his 16th double of 1974. Ryan Rodgers (.417/.520/.494) was 2 for 4 and drove in 3 runs from the leadoff slot. And how about Zacarias Martell in his rookie campaign? Martell (.283/.407/.372) went 2 for 4 with 2 runs scored and a walk.
Attachment 648753

More of the same in game 3 as the offense was once again led by Rodgers (3 for 5), Foster (4 for 4) and Martell (2 for 5 with 2 RBI and his 8th double.) Ace Cheol-han Lee wasn't particularly sharp, giving up 3 runs on 12 hits in 8 2/3rds innings pitched and wasn't around for the decision as it took a pair of 10th inning runs to break a 3-3 tie. (Cheol-han was however 2 for 3 at the plate which is not bad for a guy with a career .131 batting average.) Eric Marino wasn't particularly effective either but lucked into the win to improve to 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA and Jaden Francis was very effective and got his 8th save to go with his terrific 0.48 ERA.
Attachment 648754

The Brewers had their chances to get game 4 and complete the road sweep but they fell short and lost 4-3. The loss certainly can't be blamed on Mike Foster. Foster (.394/.445/.593) continues to be one of the hottest hitters in the league thus far and he went 2 for 3 in this one with his 2 hits both being doubles, getting him to a league leading 18 on the season. He also leads the league in hits, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and of course WAR. While being 2nd in the league in batting average, OBP (in both these cases behind teammate Ryan Rodgers), extra base hits, total bases, and win probability added. Erik Sloan continues his uneven season, giving up 3 runs on 8 hits in 6 innings pitched and taking the loss to fall to 5-5 with a 4.56 ERA.
Attachment 648755

Having taken 3 of 4 from San Fran, the Brewers hold a 3 1/2 game lead over the red-hot Charlotte Sting. Phoenix has also been playing well of late and is 6 1/2 back in 3rd place. L.A. is 7 1/2 back and Brooklyn is back in 5th place at 10 games off the pace.

BirdWatcher 09-21-2019 08:05 PM

Hitting streak for Rondeau!
 
2 Attachment(s)
It's beginning to look like Pat Rondeau's batting title last season at the age of 30 might not have been such a fluke after all. He is currently on a roll, having hit safely in 20 straight games now and sitting at .373 for the season while playing for his new team, the El Paso Dawgs. Rondeau hasn't gotten the playing time he thinks he deserves though and doesn't have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting race in the SJL but his batting average is nearly 20 points higher than the current SJL leader.
Attachment 648757
Attachment 648758

BirdWatcher 09-21-2019 08:17 PM

Juan Soto calling it quits on stellar career
 
3 Attachment(s)
The 42-year old former star starting pitcher Juan Soto, after a particularly disastrous outing as the closer for the Pittsburgh Roadrunners AAA club, the Laredo Oil Kings, has decided this is his last season as a professional ballplayer.
Attachment 648762

Soto is still hoping to get one last taste of the bigs after having given the L.A. Spinners 30 solid starts last year, going 10-7 with a 3.88 ERA. In his earlier days Soto was one of the finer starting pitchers in the game, having won the SJL Pitcher of the Year award in 1966 while a member of the WPK champions, the Jacksonville Wolf Pack. While he did not win the award again in 1967, he had perhaps an even more impressive season as he went 21-8 with a 2.30 ERA. His career did start to go downhill from there though as he suffered major injuries during both the 1968 and 1970 seasons. Having already been 33 years old at the time of the formation of the WPK, Soto didn't have a chance to show what he could do in the league in his prime and surely will fall short of HOF recognition.
Still, with a career record of 108-54 and an ERA of 2.66 and having a career WAR total of 34.7 it has certainly been a career to be proud of. Not that the humble, hard-working Soto would ever admit that in public.
Attachment 648763
Attachment 648764

stevem810 09-27-2019 12:57 PM

Had the league launched 10 years earlier it would have been interesting to see those career numbers.

BirdWatcher 09-27-2019 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevem810 (Post 4541219)
Had the league launched 10 years earlier it would have been interesting to see those career numbers.

Indeed. As I start to think about a future Hall-of-Fame for the league I always think about the could-have-been's like Soto. But then I figure that any league, IRL or in OOTP, has to start somewhere and there will inevitably be some great players who are unlucky due to the league just not starting early enough for them to play through the entirety of their prime years.

I suppose I might just create my own branch of the Hall for the what might have been guys, like Soto but also future players who have their careers cut short by injury, etc.

BirdWatcher 09-27-2019 10:22 PM

June 14-16, 1974, at Oklahoma City
 
3 Attachment(s)
The Brewers finish off the week with a 3-game set at Oklahoma City against the 6th place Diamond Kings, who come into the series with a 3 game losing streak.

It took an impressive complete game shutout by Oklahoma City's Danny Black, but the Diamond Kings were able to end their skid with a 1-0 win over the Brewers. This one was a pitcher's duel as both starters went the distance, with Steve Green giving up just the 1 run on 4 hits while striking out 5 and walking 1. With the tough loss Green falls to 6-4 with a 3.67 ERA. Bobby Erbakan (.318/.375/.521) gets 2 of the 3 Brewers hits in the game, going 2 for 4.
Attachment 649649

The Brewers offense stays ice cold in game 2 and the Diamond Kings win easily, 7-1. Matt Helm gives up 4 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits in 6 1/3rd innings pitched and Eric Johnson struggles in relief, giving up 3 runs (though none earned) in 1 2/3rds innings. Helm drops to 5-3 with a 2.69 ERA. Ryan Rodgers (.415/.520/.486) went 2 for 4 in the loss.
Attachment 649650

Things don't get any better for the Brewers, who have now lost 4 straight, when Oklahoma City completes the series sweep with a 5-1 victory. What a tough season this has been for Harry Lyerly. Early in the season he was pitching horribly and giving up home runs in bunches. Now he is pitching much better, and getting no run support. Lyerly lasted 7 innings, gave up 3 runs but only 1 was earned, on 6 hits (no HR's), while striking out 9 and walking just 1. But in spite of a fine start he was saddled with a loss and drops to 3-6 on the season, now with a 4.27 ERA. Prior to the game Joe McPhillips, just returned from the IL, was added to the active roster again (Frank Rojas returning to AAA Chester) and inserted into the lineup. It was hoped that the young sparkplug and budding star would give the offense a boost. And in fact, he did his part, going 2 for 4 with a run scored and saw his current hitting streak reach 15 games. John Flores (.309/.367/.545), who continues to produce as the 5th outfielder, was 3 for 3 with a walk in the game. And Bobby Erbakan (.321/.379/.531) went 2 for 4, hitting his 15th double and driving in the lone Denver run. But beyond that the Brewers didn't get much and they just couldn't put together any scoring rallies.
Attachment 649651

Having been swept, the Brewers find their MGL lead shrunk down to 2 games, over the Charlotte Sting. They hold a 5 game edge over L.A. and Phoenix is 6 games behind.

BirdWatcher 09-27-2019 10:25 PM

Belated kudos to Jonathan Koch
 
1 Attachment(s)
It's a week late (somehow I forgot to share this news), but belated congratulations are in order for Brewers second baseman Jonathan Koch, who was the MGL Player of the Week for the first full week of June.

Attachment 649652

BirdWatcher 09-28-2019 11:23 AM

June 18-20, 1974, at Baltimore
 
3 Attachment(s)
The Brewers wrap up the road trip with a 3-game series at Baltimore against the 9th place Lords. In the 9 games played between these two teams up to this point of the season, the Brewers have won 8.

But in the first game of the series the Brewers offense continues to sputter and they drop a narrow 2-1 decision. The Brewers score their lone run in the 8th inning but also leave the bases loaded that inning. They had the bases juiced with just 1 out but Andrew Kennedy hit a harmless fly out to right field that wasn't deep enough to score Joe Willemse from third, and then Joe McPhillips struck out to end the inning. Again, Cheol-han Lee pitched well enough for a victory but was denied. Lee worked 7 innings, giving up 2 runs on 7 hits, striking out 6 and walking 2. Lee drops to 6-3 and has the 3rd best ERA in the league at 2.51. Not much to report on the offensive side of things, but Ryan Rodgers (.405/.511/.479) went 1 for 3 with a walk and his 10th double of the season.
Attachment 649732

The Brewers slide continued in game 2 as they now have lost 6 games in a row. They lost this one by a narrow 4-3 score. It was another mediocre start by veteran lefty Erik Sloan who gave up 4 runs (3 earned) on 6 hits in 6 1/3rd innings pitched. He neither struck out a single batter (surprising) nor walked any (less surprising.) Sloan takes the loss and falls to 5-6 with a 4.53 ERA. Chad Brown (.269/.289/.394), in an increasingly more rare start, had a good day at the plate, going 2 for 4, driving in a run and hitting his 11th double of the season. On the other hand, he also committed his 13th error. Zacarias Martell (.287/.409/.372) also went 2 for 4 in the game.
Attachment 649733

And finally, in the 3rd game of the series, the Brewers get the big inning that has been eluding them for the past week or so, as they break a 3-3 tie in the 6th inning by scoring 5 runs. They would add another 4 in the 9th on their way to a 12-4 victory. There were many offensive stars in this one. Mike Foster (.384/.435/.570), slumping a bit at the plate of late, went 4 for 6, driving in 3 runs, and hitting his 19th double of the season. Josh Schaeffer (.323/.437/.427) was 4 for 5 with 3 runs scored and an RBI. Bobby Erbakan (.322/.388/.530), the leading vote-getter thus far among MGL first basemen in All-Star balloting, was 2 for 2, scoring 2 runs, driving in 3, walking twice, getting hit by a pitch for the 3rd time this season, and hitting his 16th double. And Ryan Rodgers (.410/.515/.487) went 3 for 5, scored 3 runs, and hit his 11th double of 1974, which is also the 250th of his illustrious career. Matt Helm was the beneficiary of the Brewers offensive outburst, but he also did his part to secure the win, going 7 innings, allowing 3 runs (only 1 earned) on 6 hits, striking out 5 and walking 3. Helm improves to 6-3 with 2.55 ERA.
Attachment 649734

With the win in the final game of the series the Brewers avoid being swept again on the road and put a stop to their 6 game losing streak. They currently maintain a lead of just 1 game over Charlotte and 3 1/2 over the presently hot L.A. Spinners. On the plus side, the Brewers now come home and start a 7-game home stand with 4 against the last place San Francisco Velocity. (After that they host the 2nd place Sting for 3 games, so that should be interesting.)

BirdWatcher 09-28-2019 11:54 AM

Rondeau consecutive game hit streak ends at 24.
 
1 Attachment(s)
Former Brewer Pat Rondeau saw his season-best hitting streak end at 24 games.

Attachment 649747

BirdWatcher 09-28-2019 12:06 PM

Robinette out likely 2 months or more
 
2 Attachment(s)
The Seattle Alligators were predicted by many to be in the hunt this year for the SJL title. Instead, they currently find themselves 9 games below .500 and in 9th place.

Attachment 649754

And today they got some very bad news that certainly complicates any hopes of getting back into contention as they learned that star second baseman Mike Robinette, already in the midst of an off season, will be lost likely until late August with an elbow sprain. The 7-time All-Star, who has average 7 WAR per 162 games in his career, currently sits at -0.2 WAR for the 1974 season. Barry Baars, 25-year old backup out of Suriname, will likely get the majority of playing time at second in Robinette's absence. Baars is known for his slick glove work, but is unproven at the plate.
Attachment 649755

BirdWatcher 09-28-2019 01:26 PM

Rivera hits for cycle!
 
2 Attachment(s)
The first cycle of the 1974 came from an unlikely source- El Paso Dawg's backup shortstop Humberto Rivera. In just his 4th start of the 1974 season, Rivera went 5 for 5, and all of his extra base hits were the first of the season for him.
Attachment 649780

While Rivera is a very fine contact hitter, he doesn't possess much power and is a sub-par defender. He is also thought to be particularly injury prone and not a great influence in the clubhouse.
Attachment 649781

But for one day at least, he is the talk of the WPK.

BirdWatcher 09-28-2019 01:41 PM

Roadrunner's lose 2 key players to injuries
 
4 Attachment(s)
The Pittsburgh Roadrunner's, trying to hang around the middle of the pack in the SJL and give themselves at least a shot of climbing into contention, are currently a game over .500 in 5th place and trail the leading team, cross-state rivals the Philadelphia Mud Hens, by 8 1/2 games.

And today the Roadrunners suffered the toughest loss of the season so far as they lost 2 players to season-ending injuries: starting pitcher Fumito Kunishi, who it was just announced is currently 5th in the All-Star voting for SJL starting pitchers, and speedy second baseman Bill Craig. Konishi is suffering from shoulder inflammation that is expected to sideline him for 4-5 months while Craig tore his ACL and will likely not be able to play again until sometime during spring training 1975.
Attachment 649786
Attachment 649787

Konishi was the ace of a staff that has done pretty well this year (4th in ERA, team overall 2nd in runs allowed) but that doesn't run terribly deep. Craig's most likely replacement is 26-year old back-up Matt Harrington, who is a very fine fielder and a very weak hitter.
Attachment 649788
Attachment 649789

BirdWatcher 09-28-2019 05:11 PM

June 21-23, 1974, versus San Francisco
 
4 Attachment(s)
So the Brewers return home hoping that the offense they rediscovered in the final game of the road trip is nourished in the friendly confines of Centennial Stadium.

In the first game of the this 4-game series, that certainly seems to be the case. The Brewers score 6 times in the bottom of the 1st and never look back as they get an easy 10-2 win to start the home stand. Steve Green had to work with quite a bit of traffic as his control was suspect in this one- he walked 5 batters- and he gave up 7 hits in his 6 innings pitched. But mostly he worked out of jams and ended up giving up just the 2 runs and gets the win to improve to 7-4 with a 3.62 ERA. Jonathan Koch (.297/.320/.423) had a big game, going 3 for 5 with 2 runs scored, 4 RBI, and hitting his 6th HR of the season. Bobby Erbakan (.325/.392/.543) also homered, his 9th, and went 2 for 4 with 2 runs scored and 2 RBI. And Mike Foster (.388/.438/.570), trailing only teammate Ryan Rodgers in batting average in the WPK, went 3 for 5 with 2 runs and 1 RBI.
Attachment 649888

Game 2: more of the same. The Brewers actually trailed 4-3 going into the bottom of the 7th inning. But then they scored 11 times on the way to a 15-5 victory. Harry Lyerly got the victory, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) on 6 hits in 7 2/3rds innings pitched, while striking out 7 and walking 2. Lyerly improves to 4-6 with a 4.32 ERA. Ryan Rodgers (.409/.516/.488) went 3 for 5 with 5 RBI and hit his 12th double. John Flores (.355/.403/.613) continues to shine off the bench and in his rare starts and went 4 for 5 with 2 runs scored and hit his 5th HR (in just 69 plate appearances.) Joe McPhillips (.300/.370/.527) scored 3 runs, walked 3 times, and went 1 for 3.
Attachment 649889

In the opening game of the Sunday doubleheader, Justin Peacock did not give the Brewers his best start of the season as he allowed 6 runs (5 earned) on 9 hits over 5 1/3rd innings. But the offense bailed him out and the Brewers ended up prevailing by a score of 9-6. Sam Pruiett got the win in relief, pitching 2 scoreless innings, and he improves to 5-0 with a 2.39 ERA. (He is also currently 2nd in the All-Star voting among relief pitchers in the MGL.) Jaden Francis (5th in the AS voting) pitched the 9th inning for his 9th save (0.43 ERA.) Andrew Kennedy (.317/.354/.399), who has been slumping at the plate for awhile, went 2 for 5 with 4 RBI, both his hits being doubles to get him to 13 on the season. Ryan Rodgers (.415/.516/.493), having one of his finest campaigns at age 35 (in what is surely a HOF career), was 3 for 5 and hit his 3rd triple of 1974.
Attachment 649890

With staff ace, Cheol-han Lee, on the mound for the night cap it seemed the Brewers were in a good position to secure a 4-game sweep of the lowly Velocity. It was not to be. Lee was far from his best, giving up 8 runs on 12 hits in 6 1/3rd innings pitched. He struggled with his control, walking just 2 batters but putting 3 others on base by hitting them with pitches that got away. The Brewers fought back from an early deficit to tie the game at 5-5 going into the 7th, but then Lee and reliever Eric Johnson gave up 4 more runs between them and the game ended with the same score as the earlier contest but with Brewers on the losing end. Ryan Rodgers (.418/.519/.507) was once again 3 for 5 and hit his 13th double and Andrew Kennedy (.319/.359/.403) was 3 for 3 with 2 runs scored and an RBI.
Attachment 649891

Having taken 3 of 4 from San Francisco, the Brewers currently hold a 1 1/2 game lead over their next opponent, the Charlotte Sting. They lead L.A. by 5 games and the upward moving Brooklyn Aces by 7.

BirdWatcher 09-28-2019 05:13 PM

Rodgers MGL Player of the Week
 
1 Attachment(s)
Ryan Rodgers, at age 35, shows no signs of slowing down as he wins the MGL Player of the Week award for the second time in the 1974 season.

Attachment 649892

BirdWatcher 09-29-2019 12:42 PM

Roadrunners dealt another season-ending injury
 
2 Attachment(s)
The Pittsburgh Roadrunners are dealing with the worst luck when it comes to the health of their players as they lose another key member of the team- 22-year old closer Israel Vazquez- to a season-ending injury.
Attachment 650014

Vazquez was off to a fine start in his rookie season but shoulder inflammation will now sideline him for at least 4 months.
Attachment 650015

The Roadrunners are hanging in there in the middle of the SJL pack at 1 game over .500 but one has to wonder at what point they will slide towards the bottom of the pile with all of these season-ending injuries.

BirdWatcher 09-29-2019 12:49 PM

San Antonio's star shortstop out for rest of 1974 season
 
2 Attachment(s)
Many in the WPK universe consider Bud Lindsay, the 23-year old shortstop for the San Antonio Keys, to be the best in the business at his position.
Attachment 650016

But increasingly there are concerns that the 1972 Rookie of the Year, Gold Glover, Silver Slugger, and All-Star may have his HOF potential career derailed by injuries. This is the second season in a row that Lindsay will miss a big chunk of due to an injury- he suffered a fractured finger in late July of the 1973 season that put him out of commission for the rest of that campaign- and now is dealing with a ruptured MCL that is expected to sideline him for at least 6 months.
Attachment 650017

BirdWatcher 09-29-2019 01:22 PM

June 24-26, 1974, versus Charlotte
 
3 Attachment(s)
The Brewers then play host to the surprising second place Charlotte Sting.
Entering the series, the Brewers have a decidedly better run differential than the Sting. The greatest strengths for the Sting are their starting rotation and their defense, but while their offense isn't bad, it doesn't really strike fear in the hearts of opponents either.

And in game 1 the Sting pitching is good but the Brewers hold the Sting to just 2 runs and win 5-2. It was one of the better outings of the season for 1972 Pitcher of the Year Erik Sloan. Sloan went the distance, giving up the 2 runs on 8 hits, striking out 5 and walking 1. With the victory Sloan improves to 6-6 with 4.30 ERA. Defensive specialist utility infielder Oscar Vargas (.201/.296/.271), in a rare start at shortstop, helped lead the offense with a 3 for 4, 2 RBI game. Jonathan Koch (.304/.326/.424) also was 3 for 4 with a walk and an RBI. And rookie catcher, Zacarias Martell (.303/.415/.386) had his 3rd two-hit game in a row and drove in his 17th run of the season.
Attachment 650022

If the Brewers were feeling confident- perhaps a bit too confident- after pretty easily dispatching the Sting in game 1, they received a rude awakening in the second game. The Sting handed the Brewers an 8-1 loss behind the terrific pitching of veteran 5th starter Dean Olsen (8-6, 2.71). The Brewers managed just 5 hits off Olsen, 3 of them coming off the bat of Chad Brown (.287/.306/.420), including his 2nd home run of the 1974 season. In an indication of just how insignificant Brown's role has been on the team this season, he also swiped his first base of the season, this from a man who averages 25 stolen bases every 162 games played. Matt Helm was roughed up in his 4 1/3rd inning pitched, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) on 7 hits, walking 3, hitting two batters with errant pitches, and striking out none. He takes the loss to drop to 6-4 with a 2.87 ERA.
Attachment 650023

The Brewers were looking to get revenge in the rubber match and earn a series victory. Instead, they were humiliated. The Sting won 12-3. Steve Green gave up 8 runs on 11 hits in his 5 1/3 innings pitched and drops to 7-5 with a 4.19 ERA. Lefty reliever Eric Marino, having struggled a bit this season at the big league level, was rocked for 4 runs on 4 hits without recording an out. Marino found himself shipped down to AAA Chester after the game to get his head straight and the Brewers brought up fellow-lefthander Jeremy Walker to take his place. Joe McPhillips (.298/.370/.520) was one of the few bright spots for the Brewers in the game as he went 2 for 4 and hit his team-leading 12th home run of the season. Jonathan Koch (.303/.325/.433) also homered in the game, his 7th.
Attachment 650024

If the Brewers entered the series doubting the quality of the Charlotte squad, they were certainly disabused of that notion in a most brutal manner. Having taken 2 of 3 from Denver, the Sting now sit just 1/2 game back while the Brewers next opponent, the Brooklyn Aces, having won 6 straight, are in 3rd place (tied with the L.A. Spinners) at 5 1/2 games back.

BirdWatcher 09-29-2019 03:10 PM

June 28-30, 1974, at Brooklyn
 
4 Attachment(s)
The Brewers conclude the month of June with a 3-game series against the ever dangerous Aces in Brooklyn.
The Aces come into the series having won 7 straight and 8 of their last 9 while the Brewers are coming off a rather devastating series loss against Charlotte.

With the slightest lead in the MGL, this certainly looked like a series that might bounce Denver out of first place for the first time since April 27th, when they took over from these very Aces.

In game 1 the Brewers served notice that they could win with pitching, defense, and a timely hit or two when needed, as they captured a 2-1 victory. Cheol-han Lee pitched like the true ace and future HOF'er he is, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits over 8 innings pitched, striking out 6 and walking 3. Liann-wei Hua pitched the 9th for his 4th save of the season and has a 2.00 ERA. Cheol-han improved to 7-4 with 2.91 ERA. Bobby Erbakan (.318/.381/.521) went 3 for 4 in the game with 1 run scored, 1 driven in, and hit his 18th double. Jonathan Koch (.305/.327/.443) hit his 1st triple of the season in the 1st inning but was clearly in a great deal of pain after sliding in safely at third and had to be removed from the game. (More on that later.)
Attachment 650036

The Brewers then got a solid start from Harry Lyerly in the second game and earned a 6-4 win. Lyerly appears to be righting the ship after getting off to a disastrous start in 1974. He allowed 3 runs on 8 hits in 6 1/3rd innings pitched in this one to earn the victory, striking out 4 while walking none. Lyerly improves to 5-6 with 4.31 ERA. Jaden Francis gave up a solo HR to the first Ace batter of the 9th but then settled in and got 3 easy outs to get his 10th save. His ERA went up to 0.82, still pretty darn fantastic. Joe Willemse (.283/.324/.352), taking over at second base for the injured Jonathan Koch, was 3 for 5 in the game, scoring once and driving in another run. Chad Brown (.290/.307/.414) appears to be experiencing a bit of a resurgence in the midst of a difficult season and contributed a 2 for 4 game with two runs scored.
Attachment 650037

And the Brewers end June on a high note as they sweep the Aces, winning the final game 5-1.Chad Brown (.300/.315/.426) continuing his hot hitting of late, went 3 for 4 with 3 RBI and hit his 12th double of 1974. Prior to the game it was learned that Jonathan Koch had suffered a fractured tibia while sliding in to third on his triple in the first game of the series and would be out of action for 5-6 weeks. Likely this will mean that Joe Willemse will get the majority of playing time at second base and Chad Brown will be counted on once again to carry the lion's share of the load at short. He picked a good time to get hot. Matt Helm was wildly effective in this one, walking 6 batters but working out of jams to limit the Aces to just 1 run on 6 hits in 7 1/3rd innings pitched. With the victory the captain improves to 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA. Jordan Stephens pitched the last inning and 2/3rds for his 5th save and his ERA improves to 2.83. Stephens also got a single in his lone at-bat, has a slash line of .448/.515/.655 in 33 plate appearances, and stole his first base of the season. John Flores continues to be spectacular in his rare starts as the 5th outfielder. Flores (.382/.425/.676) went 3 for 4 with 2 runs scored and two of his hits were triples, his first two of the season.
Attachment 650038

With the sweep of Brooklyn the Brewers now have a 3 game lead over the Charlotte Sting to start the month of July. The Aces fall to 8 back and the L.A. Spinners are now 9 off the pace, having lost 6 in a row.

With Jonathan Koch heading to the IL, the Brewers added Rodrigo Rodriguez (RodRod) to the 40-man roster and promoted him to the big league ball club. With third baseman Mike Foster currently going through a slump, RodRod will likely spell him a bit at third, can also play a bit of second, if not nearly as well as Willemse or Oscar Vargas, and gives the Brewers another very potent left-handed bat off the bench.
Attachment 650039

BirdWatcher 09-29-2019 04:54 PM

July 1st, 1974- WPK Standings
 
1 Attachment(s)
Let's take a look at current WPK standings as we get the month of July started:
Attachment 650048

The reigning WPK champs, the Jacksonville Wolf Pack, have been playing great lately and have finally overcome the Philadelphia Mud Hens for first place in the SJL. Third place is occupied by another one of the most successful teams in SJL history thus far, the Washington Night Train. Another formerly great team, the Columbus Whalers, are nestled comfortably in last place and have already lost 50 games.

The Brewers, of course, lead the MGL with, as predicted, the Brooklyn Aces and the L.A. Spinners competing to catch up with them. What was not predicted was that the Charlotte Spinners would be breathing down the Brewers necks in second place. (They were predicted to finish in the middle of the pack with a break even record.) But also as predicted, the San Francisco Velocity are the worst team in all of the WPK.

BirdWatcher 09-29-2019 05:26 PM

WPK Franchise Report: the Philadelphia Mud Hens (SJL)
 
5 Attachment(s)
For much of the 1974 season the Philadelphia Mud Hens have been in first place in the Shoeless Joe League, only recently having been over-taken by reigning champs Jacksonville.

This seems like a good time to take a look at the Philadelphia franchise.

History/Overview: The Mud Hens have had an up and down history thus far with more downs than ups the past four seasons. The highest they have ever finished is second place, which they have done twice (1965, 1967) with the second of those being the season they posted their best record (95-67.) They play in a big market but have a rather fickle fan base. Their operating budget is pretty middle of the pack while their current player payroll is on the low side. The owner, Corey Wenzel, has the reputation of being so impatient as to be considered unmerciful, but at least he takes a hands-off approach to baseball decisions.
This year's club has been largely successful due to a strong starting rotation. Overall, the Mud Hens are first in runs against in the SJL. They have good team hitting but are under-powered. They rarely steal bases but are quite effective running the base paths otherwise.
Attachment 650063
Attachment 650064

The Ballpark: The Mud Hens play at spacious Sunoco Field at the Old City. The park seats up to 50,800 fans but they are only 4th in the SJL in attendance thus far in 1974. Sunoco Field favors pitchers and runs very deep in right field- 390 in right center, 380 in dead right- but if you can poke it down the right field line the seats are a cozy 324 feet away.
Attachment 650065

The Face of the Franchise: Some would probably say that veteran first baseman Nate Bennett is the face of the Philly franchise as he is probably the most storied player currently playing in a Mud Hens uniform. But the reality is that most of Bennett's best years were as a Boston Berserker and he just joined the Mud Hens last season. In fact, Ryan Pope is the player most beloved among Philly fans. The 27-year old left-fielder has played his entire career thus far for the Mud Hens, is a career .309 hitter, and is the favorite of the fans for his blue collar approach to the game. Unfortunately, for all of his talent as a hitter he is a rather mediocre fielder and has a hard time staying healthy enough to stay in the lineup full-time. Last season was the first in his career where he started more than 112 games. Pope is having a strong season in 1974, tied for the league lead in RBI with 57, third in the league in batting average at .351, third in total bases, and 7th in WAR among SJL batters.
Attachment 650066

Greatest former player: While one could make an argument for power hitting first baseman Nate Kuykendall, who played for the Mud Hens from 1965 through 1969, I'm going to go with possible future HOF pitcher Chris Hernandez. Hernandez was a Mud Hen for just 4 seasons (1965-1968) but he was great from the get-go, being already 29-years old when the league formed, led the SJL in games started twice as a Mud Hen and in WAR during his 1966 season at 9.3. This is the highest WAR season of his illustrious career. And in some ways his 9 WAR 1967 is even more impressive: 19-6 record, 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 143 ERA+, and amazingly only 1 HR allowed over the course of 272.1 innings pitched.
Attachment 650067

BirdWatcher 09-29-2019 08:38 PM

Charlotte acquires Streak Souffront!
 
3 Attachment(s)
Attachment 650093

The Charlotte Sting, hot on the tail of the Denver Brewers, today traded for one of the original Brewers, Ruben "Streak" Souffront.
The Sting sent two-time Gold Glover David Flesh to Columbus in exchange for Souffront. Flesh had played with Charlotte his entire career and helped them win a WPK championship in 1972, when he was an All-Star and put up 5.4 WAR. Flesh has also won Gold Gloves at both shortstop and second base earlier in his career and remains a dynamic defensive player but is only mediocre at the plate. With plenty of depth in the middle of the infield Charlotte could afford to let Flesh go but they also have good outfield depth and it is hard to know how they might use Souffront.
Attachment 650094

Still it will be interesting to see how Souffront, who is having a very good season at the plate, though in a limited role thus far, might affect the pennant race which might end up involving his new team and his old team.
Attachment 650095

BirdWatcher 09-30-2019 10:08 PM

July 1-4, 1974, at Portland
 
4 Attachment(s)
The Portland Wild Things, who were the MGL champions in 1967 and 1968, have finished in last place the last 3 seasons.

It appears that 1974 should be the year when they start to rise out of the cellar and try to begin to re-take their place among the first division teams of the MGL. And they are off to a pretty decent start this year, coming into the four game series with Denver in 6th place, but a game over .500. They have possibly the best hitting shortstop in the game in Chris Tobin (he isn't the rangiest fielder, but overall he's quite acceptable), added a great captain this past off-season when they signed free agent slugger Cody Kane, have a solid but injury prone second baseman in Ryan Lovelady, and have a fairly deep and not untalented pitching staff, particularly a respectable bullpen.

And in game 1 of their series against the first place Brewers they showed signs of what might come in their future as they handed the Brewers a decisive 8-0 thumping. They really pounded young Justin Peacock hard, hitting 3 homers against him, scoring all 8 of their runs (6 earned) on 12 hits in the 5 1/3rd innings he pitched. Peacock drops to 3-1 with a 4.08 ERA. Jeremy Walker, recently recalled from AAA Chester to replace the demoted Eric Marino, pitched a fine 2 2/3rds innings to finish things up but the damage had already been done. Josh Schaeffer (.315/.429/.420) went 2 for 4 in the loss, hitting his 8th double of the season.
Attachment 650228

The Brewers bounced back in game 2 to get a narrow 5-4 win, scoring the bulk of their runs in the last 2 frames. Erik Sloan didn't pitch poorly for his 7 innings- giving up 3 runs, only 2 earned, on 9 hits while striking out 2 and walking none. Although Sam Pruiett did give up 1 run in his 2 innings, he was held off the late Wild Things rally to get his 2nd save (with a 2.37 ERA.) Sloan got the win to improve to 7-6 with a 4.18 ERA. Andrew Kennedy (.324/.359/.398) went 4 for 5 in the victory, scoring a run and driving in another. But the big blow for the Brewers was a Joe McPhillips (.288/.366/.510) 2-run HR in the 8th inning. McPhillips also drew a pair of walks in the game.
Attachment 650229

The visitors managed another 1-run victory in the third game of the series, holding on to win 3-2. Steve Green gave the Brewers a fine start, allowing just the 2 runs on 5 hits over his 7 2/3rds innings, striking out 5 and walking 2. Green improves to 8-5 with a 4.05 ERA. Liann-wei Hua got his 11th hold of the season (1.93 ERA) and Jaden Francis his 11th save (0.78 ERA.) The suddenly hot hitting Andrew Kennedy (.327/.362/.404) was 2 for 4 with 2 runs scored and an RBI and hit his 14th double of 1974. And Zacarias Martell, whose wonderful rookie campaign has made him the defacto starting catcher over 3-time Gold Glover Kevin Curtis, was 2 for 4 with 2 RBI in the game. As surprising as it is that Martell has a .301 batting average at this stage of the season, it is his .404 OBP that most impresses the Brewers management. He is on pace for a solid 3.3 WAR season.
Attachment 650230

And then, for the third game in a row, the Brewers get a 1-run victory over their hosts to take the series three games to one. With ace Cheol-han Lee on the mound, the Brewers gave up just a single run and won 2-1. Cheol-han lasted 8 innings, giving up the 1 run (unearned) on 5 hits while striking out 5 and walking 1. Lee improves to 8-4 with 2.72 ERA. Jaden Francis uncharacteristically walks the only 2 batters he faces in the 9th, but then lefty Liann-wei Hua comes in and bails Francis and the Brewers out for his 5th save (1.83 ERA.) For the second time in the last 3 games he has started, John Flores (.384/.423/.712) hits a pair of triples. He also drives in 1 of the 2 Brewer runs. Bobby Erbakan (.312/.379/.498) went 2 for 5 and drove in the other run.
Attachment 650231

With the series victory, the Brewers are now 3 games ahead of the second place Charlotte Sting, 8 games ahead of Brooklyn, and 10 games ahead of the slumping L.A. Spinners, Denver's next opponent on the road.

BirdWatcher 09-30-2019 11:03 PM

A closer look at the Brewers bullpen
 
5 Attachment(s)
This just concluded 4-game series at Portland illustrates one of the realities that has helped drive the Brewers success in the first half of the 1974 season: a very good bullpen.

The Brewers lead the MGL in bullpen ERA at 2.86 while sitting just at 5th in starter's ERA at 3.58.

Let's look at the core of that Brewers 'pen:

1. Jaden Francis. Francis was the Brewers first round draft pick (16th overall) in the 1965 draft. And for the past four plus seasons he has been a key member of the bullpen. But never has he had half-season stretch like the one he has had thus far in 1974. He has a record of 2-0 with 11 saves (1 blown save), an ERA of 0.78, a WHIP of 0.83, and an Inherited Runners Scored percentage of 11.1%. He has inherited 9 runners and only 1 has scored. He has a FIP of 3.26 with a FIP- of 79. Now, on the other hand, his BABIP against is only .179, his K/9 has dropped significantly from past years, and it is likely that he can't sustain the numbers he has all season.
Attachment 650234

2. Sam Pruiett. Pruiett was chosen in the 2nd round of the 1966 draft by the Philadelphia Mud Hens and came to the Brewers organization in a mid-season trade in 1968, along with veteran starting pitcher Lani Malolu (who would suffer a season-ending injury in his second and last start as a Brewer), in exchange for now retired center fielder Zack Banks and a no-name first baseman currently languishing in single A for the Philadelphia organization. Pruiett came into his own in the Denver bullpen last season and at last report looks like a strong All-Star candidate this season. In addition to his 5 win- 0 loss record and 2 saves, 2.37 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, Pruiett has allowed just 5 of the runners he has inherited to score (22.7%). His BABIP is also low (.238) but not to the extreme as Francis, and his FIP is nearly identical to Jaden's (3.25, FIP- 79).
Attachment 650235

3. Liann-wei Hua. Hua is the left-handed anchor of the bullpen staff. Many consider him the most talented member of the 'pen but he hasn't yet fully come into his own as a Brewer. He did put up very good numbers from 1969 through 1972, and probably deserved more credit than he got. Then he had a disappointing 1973 campaign. But he is back to impressive numbers again this season, especially when considering that he has inherited 29 runners and allowed only 4 to score (13.8%). While he has just 5 saves, he does lead the team, and indeed all of the WPK (by a wide margin) in holds with 11. His BABIP is a pretty reasonable .264, and his FIP of 3.52 and FIP- of 85 are good indications of his quality this season.
Attachment 650236

4. Jordan Stephens. Setting aside the fact that Jordan has raked at the plate this year (he has 0.8 WAR with just 34 plate appearances), it hasn't actually been that successful a season for Jordan. On the mound, he had some rocky performances early in the season though he has been pitching better of late. His basic numbers aren't bad: 3 wins, 1 loss, 5 saves, a 2.83 ERA. But his WHIP is a bit high at 1.34, he has allowed 5 of the 12 runners inherited to score (41.7%), his FIP is 4.59 with a poor FIP- of 111. And his BABIP against of .270 neither indicates great good or great bad luck.
Attachment 650237

5. Eric Johnson. Johnson has mostly been a starting pitcher in his career (mostly as a minor leaguer) but hasn't started a game yet this year, instead pitching long relief out of the Brewers bullpen. He has won 1 game and saved another. His ERA of 3.10 is respectable and his WHIP of 1.10 is absolutely fine. He has allowed 3 of the 9 runners he inherited to score, for a not tremendous 33.3% And his FIP of 4.61 and FIP- of 112 along with his BABIP allowed of .225 would indicate he's been pretty lucky thus far.
Attachment 650238

So these are the five who have carried the bulk of the load in the Brewers 'pen this year. And looking more closely it appears that the second half might see some regression for this group, although both Sam Pruiett and Liann-wei Hua may indeed not see much drop off and even though Jaden Francis inevitably will hit some rough spots, he has been so spectacular that he could still end up with fine numbers for the season. And it should be noted that there are several very talented bullpen arms in waiting down at AAA (and even AA) who could be called up later in the season, including Eric Marino who still profiles as a possible dominant stopper even though he struggled in the early going as a member of the Brewers 'pen.

Palaaemon 10-01-2019 01:52 AM

Bullpen
 
Bird,

It appears that your bullpen that you have shown (and I suspect the relievers you have not and your rotation as well) have greatly benefited from your superb defense (minus one alleged error machine - perhaps a trade this year? Change of scenery for him?). Their FIPs being quite a bit higher than their ERAs meaning of course defensive assistance. There is one small issue being that FIP is biased against pitchers that do not throw a lot of strikeouts which the Brewers are guilty of, and as a whole I believe that the league is affected by lower K/9 totals.

None of those issues are inherantly positive or negative, they just are what they are as a result of factors in your league. Just observations. It does seem however that if you were to lower your defensive standards you might notice some negative results from your pitchers. How much? Too many factors to calculate. Good thing though, I don't see you changing your philosophy anytime soon ;)

Palaaemon 10-01-2019 02:00 AM

Request
 
Bird,

Would you please post an updated copy of Bobby Erbakan's profile please and do a write up on his career from your point of view. If you remember he is my favorite player on the Brewers. I believe he is quietly having a good year. Thank you in advance bro!

BirdWatcher 10-01-2019 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Palaaemon (Post 4542536)
Bird,

It appears that your bullpen that you have shown (and I suspect the relievers you have not and your rotation as well) have greatly benefited from your superb defense (minus one alleged error machine - perhaps a trade this year? Change of scenery for him?). Their FIPs being quite a bit higher than their ERAs meaning of course defensive assistance. There is one small issue being that FIP is biased against pitchers that do not throw a lot of strikeouts which the Brewers are guilty of, and as a whole I believe that the league is affected by lower K/9 totals.

None of those issues are inherantly positive or negative, they just are what they are as a result of factors in your league. Just observations. It does seem however that if you were to lower your defensive standards you might notice some negative results from your pitchers. How much? Too many factors to calculate. Good thing though, I don't see you changing your philosophy anytime soon ;)

Yes, this is a good point. If anything our defense is even better this season than it has been the past few seasons. Having Joe McPhillips regularly manning center field while Ryan Rodgers pretty much strictly plays one of the corner outfield positions really has helped. And other than Mike Foster at third base (who is quite adequate) the infield defense is pretty spectacular, especially with superb back-ups Oscar Vargas and Joe Willemse. Our biggest committer of errors- Chad Brown- hasn't played as regularly this season though he has been playing more of late, especially as his bat seems to have come to life. And with Brown, to a certain extent his gaffes are counter-acted by his very fine range.

The strikeout rates though are something I realized last night I have to look at more closely. My sense is that K's are simply down league-wide. The Brewers pitching staff still leads the league in K's (to the best of my memory, not being in front of the game right now). Granted, this is largely driven by the starting staff, with Harry Lyerly once again leading the league in K/9 (if I recall correctly, at 7.9) and Steve Green being right behind him. But I'm thinking that on the whole the relief staff having lower K/9's overall is more about league trends then any change in their talent for missing bats.
And walks seem to be down a bit too.

A few of our prospects in at the higher levels of the minors are likely to be greater strikeout machines but also have some control issues. Time will tell whether they will achieve success at the big league level.

Thanks for being such an attentive follower of the WPK! I really appreciate your thoughtful comments.

EDIT: Ah, one other thing I meant to mention. You are absolutely spot on, of course, about the meaning of the FIP numbers for these pitchers. But that is also why I shared the FIP- numbers, which for the big three (Francis, Pruiett, Hua) are quite good. It should be noted that the Brewers play in one of the better hitter's parks in the MGL (we haven't hovered near a team batting average of .300 for the past season and a half just because we have great hitters :) ) and that offense appears to be (again, need to take a deeper dive look at this later) up league wide. (My sense is that offense is stronger in the MGL this season than in the SJL.) So even if those ERA's are unsustainable, these three at least could still remain significantly better than league average. Though again, that crazy low BABIP for Francis is a bit concerning.

BirdWatcher 10-01-2019 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Palaaemon (Post 4542537)
Bird,

Would you please post an updated copy of Bobby Erbakan's profile please and do a write up on his career from your point of view. If you remember he is my favorite player on the Brewers. I believe he is quietly having a good year. Thank you in advance bro!

Absolutely. I will try to get that done tonight.
It is true that Erbakan, while not having the flashiest numbers on the team (see Ryan Rodgers, Mike Foster), is quietly having a great all-around season and is near the top of the league in some of the measurements that reflect that (WAR, WPA, OPS). He is hitting for average, gets on base (including a propensity to get hit by pitches which he has displayed his entire career), is hitting for more power than he usually does, has good speed on the base-paths, and almost surely will win another Gold Glove for his work at first base.

BirdWatcher 10-01-2019 07:50 PM

Denver Brewers Player Profile: Bobby Erbakan
 
3 Attachment(s)
As requested, let's take a look at the Brewers career (and some guesses about the future) of first baseman Bobby Erbakan.

The background:
Bobby Erbakan was chosen by the Brewers in the 27th round of the WPK inaugural draft as a 17-year old outfielder, raw but with great potential in the eyes of the Brewers head scout, Nick Meskill. Erbakan profiled with a very good hit tool and the potential for above average power and great contact skills. It was thought that he would draw an above average number of walks and likely rarely strike out. He was felt to be an above average runner and base-stealer, but not top of the line. And he looked like he would have good range and an above average arm in the outfield but be error prone.
He struggled between two levels in his first professional season (short-season A ball at Jersey City and A ball at Bainbridge.) But then his bat really came to life in the Arizona Fall League that year in spite of him being used mostly, and surprisingly (pun sort of intended as he was playing for the Surprise Saguaros) at third base. Erbakan then hit very well in 1966 at three levels and found himself by the end of the season, at the age of 19, playing with the AAA Chester Big Stick. He started the 1967 season at Chester again and continued to play well, earning his first big league promotion later that season. He didn't shine that first partial season with a slash line of .205/.241/.323, a WAR of -0.2, but he did show some signs of his potential by hitting five doubles, 2 triples, and 2 home runs in his 133 plate appearances.
It should be noted that by that point Erbakan had been moved to first base by the Denver brain trust. As has pretty much always been the case, the Brewers had a surplus of outfielders but few decent first base candidates. It was believed that although his arm on the infield was just average, in every other way Erbakan had greater defensive potential on the infield than in the outfield.
And while Erbakan didn't set the league on fire in his early years, he was now in the big leagues to stay.
Attachment 650332
Attachment 650334

His Brewers career (thus far):
Erbakan earned a reputation as a world class defensive first baseman long before he would get any credit as a good hitter. He won his first Gold Glove award in 1969, at the age of 22. And he's won one every season since then. And while Erbakan was not a bad hitter along the way, he really didn't have a breakout season at the plate until this past season (1973) when he had a slash line of .346/.402/.473. His 4.2 WAR in 1973 wasn't quite his best yet as the year before he put up 4.8 WAR. His career high in home runs came in 1971 when he hit 21, though he seemed to sacrifice some doubles in the process, hitting an uncharacteristically low 13 that season.

So what about this year, as we have recently passed the half-way mark? While Erbakan's batting average and OBP are lower than last year his SLG is up as he is on pace for his second best HR season and his highest double total. He is 2nd in the league in RBI at 59 and on pace for his first over 100 RBI season. He is 5th in the MGL in WAR, tied with teammate Ryan Rodgers at 3.2. He is 6th in the MGL in ISO at .186 and 6th in wOBA at .400. His WPA of 2.87 is 2nd in the MGL to Phoenix slugger Ju-ao Ju at 2.90. (And this isn't a complete list of categories he is in the top 8 in the league in.)
Defensively he is first in fielding percentage, first in Zone Rating, second in Defensive Efficiency, fifth in Range rating, fourth in assists,etc. In short, it will be surprise if he doesn't capture his 6th straight Gold Glove at the end of this season.
He is on pace to end the season with a 6.6 WAR, which would be by far the best of his big league career.
Attachment 650333

What about the future?:
Well, the first thing to note is that he is signed with the Brewers through the 1979 season, when he will be 32 years old. He appears to be a bit of a late bloomer and has blossomed in the past few seasons. How long will his peak last? Well, he doesn't profile as a particularly durable player but he hasn't experienced a great deal of injury issues in his career either. The injuries he has sustained in the past several years, none terribly serious, have all been issues with his back. (He experienced some back tightness earlier this season, but only missed a couple of games as a result.)

Is he a future Hall-of-Famer?:
Before even doing any research or serious evaluation of this question, my first instinct would be, probably not. He feels more like one of those Hall of the Very Good guys.
Now, doing a little more fact gathering doesn't really change that impression. Granted there still could be quite a bit of career left ahead of him and he may only now be heading into his best years, but at this stage he has a HOF Monitor score of 14.5. He's never led the league in any significant category. On the other hand, in addition to his 5 Gold Gloves, so far, he is also a 2-time All-Star and was a significant member of the 1970 World Championship Brewers team. The 1974 All-Star teams won't be announced for a few more days but at last count Erbakan easily led the MGL first baseman in the voting and almost surely will earn his 3rd All-Star designation soon.

Now this next part is stepping outside of the reality of the WPK so be forewarned. I started thinking about what MLB players, first baseman in particular, might Erbakan be similar too. As an athletic, excellent fielding first baseman who doesn't hit for power as much as usually would be expected for the position, I started to wonder how Erbakan matched up with Keith Hernandez. Using Bill James Similarity Scores method, I compared Hernandez age 20-27 seasons to Erbakan's up through July 4th of 1974. And for that comparable time period the similarity score was 905. Which is actually pretty strong; on the low end of the truly similar range. Now it should be noted that even though the similarity is strong, Hernandez was better in more categories. Erbakan has hit a few more HR's, stolen a few more bases, and struck out a handful fewer times, but other than that Hernandez was superior in every category. And at this age Hernandez had won an MVP award. On the other hand, he had one fewer Gold Gloves than Erbakan (and Erbakan will probably add to that advantage at the end of the season) and they are equal in All-Star game appearances (again, likely to change soon.) Hernandez would play many more years, earn more Gold Glove awards, more All-Star selections, contend for a few more MVP awards (though not winning any more), and, of course, is not in the Hall-of-Fame.
Still, if Erbakan can have a Keith Hernandez-like career in the WPK, that's nothing to be ashamed of.

(I also wondered about his comparison to Wally Joyner. Short answer: similarity score of 884. Pretty similar. Joyner hit for more power and hit quite a few more doubles, walked quite a bit more, drove in a lot more runs, stole fewer bases, hit far fewer triples. But he won no Gold Gloves and was an All-Star only in his rookie season. I suspect Erbakan will be more Hernandez than Joyner when all is said and done.)


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