Ratings updates
 

I can't be the only one who gets miffed at seeing a player on a hot streak IRL getting his contact stat lowered. Or any other stat really. Sometimes the reasons changes don't make any sense to me. What exactly are weekly updates based on? I understand the base ratings are based upon projections so what are the updates based on, if not their weekly stat line?

I think you should give a specific example...and I am assuming this is about DJL going from gold to diamond. so please provide stats and hopefully someone from OOTP team can explain.

That has started this specific rant but I feel that sometimes IRL performance doesn't show in ratings buffs/debuffs.

Week to week changes in player stats are just noise. Like trying to day trade stocks. Or buying some hot growth stock and wondering why the price goes down after you buy it.

What's DJL?

DJ LeMahieu

Don't really agree with this. Players are moving +/- ten points or more, that's more significant than "noise".


There are ways to predict these short term movements as well. Really we are just limited by the amount of time we want to invest.


for contact rating obviously BABIP involves a huge amount of luck, but there are still some good indicators, mainly line drive%, pull% and IFFB%

for power there's StatCast data and park factors to disentangle but it can be done with some effort

for strikeouts and walks there are plate discipline statistics which are more predictive from small samples (o-Swing%, etc.)


with enough time on your hands and knowledge of baseball stats you could do quite well just flipping the short term changes.


If someone would pay me full time to do this I would be happy to prove it :)

They're based on the stats a player puts up, but there's lots of factors that go into the ratings.

The pitching model is mostly FIP-based, so you have some cases like Verlander who has a great ERA, but his FIP is actually worse than projections, so he might actually see his card go down over time.

Batters tend to be less volatile, but also keep in mind that the week in question does matter. LeMahieu was mentioned above - he went from 81 to 79 last week. But that makes sense - he hit .181 for the week (4/22), so yeah, while his overall season numbers are still very good, he still dropped. You can't really look at the season numbers and think that just because a guy is having a good season he'll keep going up. Alonso is another good example of that - sure he hit another couple HR last week, but he didn't do much else and that cost him. He's got another 2 HR this week, but again, nothing else. If he puts up another 0-fer this weekend, then he'll keep dropping.

There are many trying to do this, so when a player becomes obviously "hot", you can't find him at a reasonable price. It seems to me, you have to start stocking up on a player before he becomes well-known, more like investing instead of day-trading. Like a guy who is hitting .250, but has a top 10 hard hit rate. You have to figure those hard hit balls will start to be hits instead of being caught.

Yep. Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

We totally need some topic where to discuss ratings update of live cards. Patrick Corbin - inferior and great game in one week. Will he drop in his ratings, stay or climb up? I think drop by one point.

Why is Roberto Osuna rated so low compared to his counterparts? He has been a dominant closer and his setup men Ryan Pressly and Will Harris both have significantly higher ratings than he does. Pressly is an 89 and Harris an 85 compared to Osuna's 79. Is it because of all of the trouble he got in? If so, then why is Aroldis Chapman rated so high?

Maybe the updates should be every other week...then you could more or less shift them from original projections to any a little more obvious new changes to projections. I thought maybe you'd even do them monthly for that reason. One week? Often doesn't tell you a thing.

This!!

Speaking of updates. Did they go live? I was looking this morning and nothing moved as far as I could tell.

They aren't even consistent now with telling us what was changed, let alone how the changes happen

I am a fan of the concept but it needs a serious overhaul next year