Upside/downside potential or highly volatile
 

Can anyone give any hints as to when upside or downside potential will be seen if it ever does? I realize it has a chance to not pan out at all. Also is it true to expect a player that is highly volatile has a chance (albeit lower chance) to move up further than a player with Upside potential?


I've been somewhat loading up on players that have the Upside potential, one player went from a 3star to a 3.5star the week after I traded for him, however most have not moved in ratings.


Also, some players with upside potential that I drafted, now have downside potential or are highly volatile after 6 months without any ratings change.


Any hints FHM guys? Also any probability % on potential actually happening? (50%? 30%? 2%)

I don't want to give away too much here, since the whole point is to add uncertainty to scouting. I'll just say that the system was designed in a way to make the biggest outliers in real player development possible but very rare - undrafted Martin St. Louis turning into a hall-of-fame caliber guy, Alex Burrows going from the ECHL to an NHL first-liner, or, in the other direction, lottery pick draftees turning into complete busts. And, with the way the system works, it's possible that a player tagged like this may not have his potential vary much at all (it'd be easy to spot the mistakenly-tagged guys if major changes were guaranteed - so you'll never know if a guy with that tag who hasn't deviated much from his predicted development might suddenly blossom or fall apart.)