More on momentum and shots on goal
 

In a previous thread we had a discussion of the high number of lopsided shots on goal in a game, with one team frequently having at least twice as many shots on goal as their opponent. I've been watching the momentum factor as games play out and I have noticed that it seems to be determined primarily by the difference between teams in shots on goal. Even if a team scores twice in a row, if it is in a sizeable deficit on shots on goal (around 5 or so perhaps), momentum still favours the opponent.

I suspect that momentum is too heavily influenced by the shots differential, leading to the lopsided differences in shots totals and perhaps adding more noise to the outcome of games that it ought to do.

Shots do affect momentum, but the shot differential is only weighted at 10% of the value of a single goal. Bear in mind that the momentum count reaches back quite a long way, into the previous period.