OOTP Developments Forums - Player Speed Ratings

OOTP Developments Forums (https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com//index.php)

- OOTP 20 - General Discussions (https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com//forumdisplay.php?f=3956)

- - Player Speed Ratings (https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com//showthread.php?t=305266)

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingusc (Post 4521163)

Can somebody try to bottom line this for me?

a) If I'm scouting a draft and want the best team speed, I should look first to the _______ rating?

b) If I want to steal a base, the __________ rating is most important? (I believe this to be STE, with SPD factoring in as well).

c) If I want to know who is the fastest on my team from home to 1B, I should look to the _________ rating?

d) If I want to know what players may make the worst mistake on the basepaths, I should look primarily to the _________ rating? (I believe this to be Baserunning, later to be named the Puig rating).

a) Speed
b) Stealing (quality), Speed (quantity)
c) Speed (also, being left-handed in real life, but I don't know how this works in OOTP)
d) Baserunning

Quote:

Originally Posted by Argonaut (Post 4521165)

b) Stealing (quality), Speed (quantity)

Thank you, Argonaut. I've always thought of this in Strat-O-Matic terms. That the Stealing rating determines ability to "get the lead" and the speed rating is the number that determines success. I think it is actually a little different, but conceptually it kind of works.

This helps a ton - until somebody disagrees ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drstrangelove (Post 4521078)

The game allows managers to tell individual runners (under strategy) to run all the time or be as aggressive as possible on the bases. So, really, this is a choice that every manager can already make.

With Willie Mays you don't want "aggressive as possible". You want "intelligently aggressive" but there is no setting for that. Ramping up aggressiveness across the board is not realistic. In real life if I want a base runner to be more aggressive that means he should be trying to go from 1st to third on singles with one out more often. He should be trying to score from second on singles with two outs more often. He should be tagging at 2nd to go to third with one out more often. He should try to stretch singles into doubles when there are two outs more often. He should not be going from 1st to third on singles with 2 outs more often. He should not be tagging at 2nd with two outs more often.

I wish I could tell a player to be more aggressive on the base paths without him interpreting that to mean being more aggressive across the board.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dyzalot (Post 4521191)

You could put this in OOTP21 suggestions. I like it.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

I've always thought baserunning rating is the evaluation of a player making good choices, i.e. try to score from second on a base hit with a high probability of success.

Speed then being the increased number of times a player will take that chance because he knows his probability of success based on his knowledge of his speed, with his understanding of his success rate which is determined by baserunning rating.

I think this is an interesting conversation and I think it has clarified a number of things for may of us.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mannyw (Post 4520204)

I'm the original poster. I've followed this thread and given it a lot of thouoght. I looked up Sabermetrics in relations and found something very interesting called Speed Score. Below is the information copied from Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speed_Score

So I do think it is possible to more accurately calculate player speed. I played APBA Baseball growing up and have messed with their Window version some too. They have somehow calculated player speed for years, seemingly very accurately. In their system a player is ranked 1-20, with a slow player being 1-6, average 7-14 and fast 15-20. Only the most elite runners reach 20, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines come to mind.

Their speed ranking is entirely separate from a runners SB success. In speed a player speed is subtracted from outfielder's arm rating and then that sum is subtracted from a number representing ball depth in outfield.

In base stealing the runner has a 0-36 base stealing rating. Catcher have a -4 to +6 arm rating and pitchers have a 0 to +3 pitch-off move rating. So a +4 catcher and a +1 pitcher would have a sum of +5. This +5 is subtracted from the base stealing number, say 30 of a possible 36. So 30 minus 5 gives the runner 25 out of 36 chances to successfully steal the base.

Just so thoughts, it would take work but runner speed accuracy is possible, even for non modern era players.

While I agree that Speed Score would be an interesting way to calculate speed for historical players, I think it ought to be noted that for the guys people are citing - Roberto Clemente and Willie Mays - that way of calculating their speed would likely give them slightly above average but certainly not elite speed ratings.

Well... I'm going to test that. Here are some speed scores by players who may or may not have been considered fast in the early 60s (using 1962):

Clemente: 7.82
Frank Robinson: 6.77
Mays: 7.88
Tommy Davis: 7.98
Hank Aaron: 7.74
Lou Brock: 9.58
Frank Howard: 5.6
Maury Wills: 10.66

I find it interesting that it the algorithm managed to suss out Lou Brock so well (Brock, then playing for the Cubs, was only 18/24 for steals) but jeez, if Wills is an 80/80 and Brock is about a 75/80, Clemente and Mays are pretty far off... maybe 55-60/80 for both? And that's probably being generous... Frank Howard is pretty close to a 20, maybe a 25, but there's more difference by speed score between Clemente and Wills than there is between Clemente and Howard.

Showing my age but I was a Cardinal fan in 64 when they acquired Brock. I just looked at the successful career stolen base percentage for Aaron, Brock, Clemente, T. Davis, and Mays. Brock had the best percentage even though teams were playing for him to run. Aaron’s percentage was about the same, about 75% successful for both. Mays and T Davis were about 66% and Clemente just behind.
I need to check Wills and F. Robinson.
Wills and F. Robinson around 70%.
Of course, stolen base % is not a direct correlation to raw speed since quickness and reading a pitcher are big factors. As a Cardinal fan, this little comparison gives me more appreciation for what he did for the Cardinals.
I do not know of anyway to compare how successful they were going from first to home though which I guess this discussion is mainly/partially about.

There's a theory that the in-game scores are really bell-curved (I think it's the right side), so it makes sense that the in-game numeric gap gets wider as you get to the extremes (tails). The OOTP speed ratings (even if they were actually run speeds) wouldn't be speeds (in mph), but normalized scores.

Still, I thought OOTP speed was (primarily) the propensity to steal a base.