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-   -   Billy C challenge (https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com//showthread.php?t=241151)

bear 04-24-2014 06:04 PM

bear created

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3682895

bear 04-24-2014 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cap (Post 3682897)
My two cents worth. Lucas Browne should be favoured to win against Eric Martel Bahoeli. Eric The Hammer can punch a bit, but I expect Browne to wear him down and stop him.

Cap

Based on their ratings prior to running any sims, Browne looks like the man here.

Have to create four fighters. Ruben Tamayo, John Mark Apolinario, Daniyar Hanyk, and Giovani Santillan. Gotta hit utube to find film of the last two. Tough enough to create files as it is, but I really need to at least see an active guy before taking a stab at it.

bear 04-25-2014 02:05 AM

the new guys can be found here

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3683193

bear 04-25-2014 02:16 AM

April 24th challenge
 
Since we've had some discussion I thought I'd fan the flames a little.

Here are the predictions sent to Billy C. I haven't written the summaries yet. They'll be posted on the Title Bout site as ususal

wlad klitschko over alex leapai
Julio diaz over keith Thurman
lucas matthysse over john molina
omar Figueroa over jerry belmontes
jose Zepeda over rob frankel
denis lebedev over Guillermo jones
Eduard Troyanovsky over Richard abril
lucas browne over eric martel bahoeli
ruben tamayo over efrain esquivias
giovani santillan over daniyar hanyk
Isaac torres over tony lopez
juan Francisco Estrada over Richie mepranum
hernan marquez over john mark apolinario

bob_bask 04-25-2014 06:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bear (Post 3683207)
Since we've had some discussion I thought I'd fan the flames a little.

Here are the predictions sent to Billy C. I haven't written the summaries yet. They'll be posted on the Title Bout site as ususal

wlad klitschko over alex leapai
Julio diaz over keith Thurman
lucas matthysse over john molina
omar Figueroa over jerry belmontes
jose Zepeda over rob frankel
denis lebedev over Guillermo jones
Eduard Troyanovsky over Richard abril
lucas browne over eric martel bahoeli
ruben tamayo over efrain esquivias
giovani santillan over daniyar hanyk
Isaac torres over tony lopez
juan Francisco Estrada over Richie mepranum
hernan marquez over john mark apolinario

Wouldn't change much, I'd have Thurman over Diaz and Abril over Troyanovsky.

Watch out for Mosley Jr debut on undercard of Zepeda fight.


bear 04-25-2014 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob_bask (Post 3683252)
Wouldn't change much, I'd have Thurman over Diaz and Abril over Troyanovsky.

Watch out for Mosley Jr debut on undercard of Zepeda fight.


I'd have Thurman over Diaz as well. Troyanovsky vs. Abril depends on a couple of things. How "real" is Troyanovsky's power and the locale of the fight.

bob_bask 04-25-2014 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bear (Post 3683555)
i'd have thurman over diaz as well.

What ratings did Thurman and Diaz have when you ran them bear?

The official ratings give Thurman 7 and Diaz 5. I just got 65-33-2 for Thurman.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bear (Post 3683555)
troyanovsky vs. Abril depends on a couple of things. How "real" is troyanovsky's power and the locale of the fight.

Just giving Abril nod as Troyanovsky bit of a unproven quantity.


IceTea 04-25-2014 04:26 PM

For the simulations, are we using the fighters in the appropriate career stage? Wouldn't Diaz be post-prime? I spoke with Billy C last week at the Turning Stone and he realizes that a vast majority of the fighters aren't included in the database. As with Quillin last week, sometimes the game isn't uploading what I submit to the changelist. Quillin's old 5 rating was used in the simulation, but he's either a solid six or a low seven. It has been corrected since. I did ask that he include more female bouts.

IceTea 04-25-2014 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob_bask (Post 3683685)
What ratings did Thurman and Diaz have when you ran them bear?

The official ratings give Thurman 7 and Diaz 5. I just got 65-33-2 for Thurman.



Just giving Abril nod as Troyanovsky bit of a unproven quantity.


Thurman is a 7 at WW. I have deleted his JMW 6 rating, but it will likely still appear in the loop for most people.

MJ

bear 04-25-2014 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob_bask (Post 3683685)
What ratings did Thurman and Diaz have when you ran them bear?

The official ratings give Thurman 7 and Diaz 5. I just got 65-33-2 for Thurman.



Just giving Abril nod as Troyanovsky bit of a unproven quantity.


They were 7 and 5

bear 04-25-2014 11:19 PM

I update the database prior to looking for the fighters in the official database. When I don't find fighters in the official I check for files created for the mods section. If I don't find them I have to do my homework and create them. The only "tweaking" I've done so far is to have the matched up fighters duke it out in the matched weight class. In these cases I've simply created another rating at the needed weight without any other tweaks.

I have not given enough consideration to career stages. That's something I'll need to work on. When I get the match-ups I may ask for some feedback on possible career stage changes.

bear 04-25-2014 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob_bask (Post 3683685)
What ratings did Thurman and Diaz have when you ran them bear?

The official ratings give Thurman 7 and Diaz 5. I just got 65-33-2 for Thurman.



Just giving Abril nod as Troyanovsky bit of a unproven quantity.


That's one of the reason's I I mentioned the question of how "real" his power may be. There are some locales that produce fighters with really gaudy KO records because they were fed stiffs. (the challenge of Columbians, for example) That's why rating these active guys is such a test.

Heck, the Hanyk kid I rated is 10 and 0. He turned out to be a generous 3. Couldn't find any film of him. I was generous because a promotional group was boasting about signing him to a three year contact like they had scored a major coup. His opponents, while he earned this sparkling record has a whopping total of 2 wins between them. I have no idea whether he can fight, or how he'll react when he meets someone who can fight.

CONN CHRIS 04-26-2014 06:13 AM

I see that no one else sees this to be the fool's errand that I do so I'll say one last piece and then let you all carry on.


1) Getting into this to begin with may have been a poor choice on Paul's part. The game is meant to simulate the past not predict the future. You are asking it to be something that it isn't. Even if the game worked flawlessly and had ratings that really were exhaustively tested, it wouldn't be set up to do this.


2) The reason that Paul wanted to do this was publicity. That makes perfect sense but all decisions that we make in life should be occasionally re-evaluated. In this case, Bear took over a sunken ship, not just one that was taking on water. A few bad weeks and the historical percentage for TBCB will have the accuracy of a well balanced silver dollar or Henrietta the stock picking chicken. This can't be generating interest of any sort in Paul's game other than perhaps a snicker here and there and another guy that vows to never buy the thing.

Edit: In short, I suspect that this endeavor is having the exact opposite impact from what was intended; retarding rather than generating interest and sales from current non-users.

CONN CHRIS 04-26-2014 06:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob_bask (Post 3682722)


Sorry not too sure here, but if referring to the download links, they seem to work for me, went back to ninth week of challenge and they worked too.



Maybe we are looking at different things. When I click the links for the fighter files I get something like this on a new web page:






Quote:

TBDX______VERSION003FIGHTERS__VERSION021RRS_______ VERSION006HISTORY___VERSION010y BrandonAdamsCannonYzDzD @A@C!CLos Angeles, CA=United StatesbBrandon Adams 2011 Global ID 567641 sex male birthdate 1989-07-31 (age 23) division light middleweight rating 201 / 1262 46 / 286 stance orthodox height 5' 9" / 175cm US ID 080185 alias Cannon country USA residence Los Angeles, California, USA won 10 (KO 6) + lost 0 (KO 0) + drawn 0 = 10 rounds boxed 32 KO% 60 153.25 - 161.5 lbs qy TC ParadeBear!>I?A@xA@xA@Ap @hA MenBubble

bear 04-26-2014 11:27 AM

I have no idea of what is happening there, Chris. It looks like coding of some sort.

CONN CHRIS 04-26-2014 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bear (Post 3684304)
I have no idea of what is happening there, Chris. It looks like coding of some sort.


Are they supposed to be links back to the forum or to some stored download file? Paul should be able to code that for you I would have to think.


As for the other stuff - I am not critical of you, it's just an inherently bad setup. I guess that I am critical of Paul - I don't believe that he thinks many things through but that's another story.


All that is being done really is guessing who the winners will be in sometimes close calls. That's a tough thing to do; if it were easy, gambling houses wouldn't exist. That isn't what TBCB is and to insert into a handicapping contest is just begging people to believe it isn't worth a damn because they are led to believe that it's worth is based on prognostication. The game itself has enough issues without creating false expectations that it can't meet even under the best of circumstances.

bear 04-26-2014 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CONN CHRIS (Post 3684312)
Are they supposed to be links back to the forum or to some stored download file? Paul should be able to code that for you I would have to think.


As for the other stuff - I am not critical of you, it's just an inherently bad setup. I guess that I am critical of Paul - I don't believe that he thinks many things through but that's another story.


All that is being done really is guessing who the winners will be in sometimes close calls. That's a tough thing to do; if it were easy, gambling houses wouldn't exist. That isn't what TBCB is and to insert into a handicapping contest is just begging people to believe it isn't worth a damn because they are led to believe that it's worth is based on prognostication. The game itself has enough issues without creating false expectations that it can't meet even under the best of circumstances.

I'm looking at the Brandon Adams example. Is the link you are referring to in post 6372 of the tomato cam parade?

What I've tried to do in this thread, is to post post links back to the TC parade thread where the the TBDX files can be found. I haven't found any problem here with these links not working of with the TBDX files not working. They seem download ok here

I send Paul zips of the fighter files of guys that aren't in the original database. He in turn, posts links to the individual TDDX files on his Title bout site.

Since the TBDX files can be found in two locations I;m a bit confused about what link you are having the problem with.

CONN CHRIS 04-26-2014 03:11 PM

Bear:


Links on this page were what I was referring to. They generate the garbled web page that I posted earlier.


Title Bout Championship Boxing - predictions-billyc_2014-04-17

IceTea 04-26-2014 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CONN CHRIS (Post 3684189)
I see that no one else sees this to be the fool's errand that I do so I'll say one last piece and then let you all carry on.


1) Getting into this to begin with may have been a poor choice on Paul's part. The game is meant to simulate the past not predict the future. You are asking it to be something that it isn't. Even if the game worked flawlessly and had ratings that really were exhaustively tested, it wouldn't be set up to do this.


2) The reason that Paul wanted to do this was publicity. That makes perfect sense but all decisions that we make in life should be occasionally re-evaluated. In this case, Bear took over a sunken ship, not just one that was taking on water. A few bad weeks and the historical percentage for TBCB will have the accuracy of a well balanced silver dollar or Henrietta the stock picking chicken. This can't be generating interest of any sort in Paul's game other than perhaps a snicker here and there and another guy that vows to never buy the thing.

Edit: In short, I suspect that this endeavor is having the exact opposite impact from what was intended; retarding rather than generating interest and sales from current non-users.

* I discussed this at length with Brad that the game is more of a career simulation rather than a game that can be used to accurately predict "who would win" between two fighters, particularly fighters that are still active. I applaud Bear for running with the ball after Brad left.

IceTea 04-26-2014 04:19 PM

If the Billy C exposure is what the game needs to stay afloat, then I don't have an issue with it. Hopefully the accuracy rate is at least 66%. These type of simulation games, as with strat-o-matic and APBA, generally only appeal to those over 40 who were attracted to such games that tasks the imagination rather than playing it out for you on a television.


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