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-   -   MLB 2023 Season (https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com//showthread.php?t=342504)

thehef 10-13-2023 03:45 PM

Some of us have blamed the 5-day layoff for the top seeds as the primary reason for their downfalls, and looked to lessen that inequity. Maybe another approach would be to lengthen the down time for ALL teams, giving the WC winners a layoff, too. Maybe something like...

- Regular season ends on a Tuesday
- WC games are played on Thursday, Friday, and - if needed - Saturday
- No games Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday
- LDS' start on Wednesday

With something like this, the top two seeds will be resting & rusting for 7 days (two more than current), and the WC winners will have at 3 days off, maybe 4. Still a stark difference in rest/rust, but one would think that the difference in rust between a 5- and 7-day layoff is negligible. And whereas a 3- or 4-day layoff is still significantly shorter than what the top seeds will have, it's enough to take the sharpness & edge off of whatever advantage those WC winners will have gained in the WC series win. And with both the 3- (or 4-) and 7-day layoffs, ALL teams will be forced to experience a schedule that is completely foreign compared to the previous six months...

cephasjames 10-13-2023 04:05 PM

MLB.com has an article addressing rest vs. momentum.

Le Grande Orange 10-13-2023 04:14 PM

How long does a best-of-five usually last? There have been a total of 148 series of that length played in MLB from 1969 through 2023 (excluding the truncated 2020 season). 52 of those were played under a 2-3 home field rotation and 96 used a 2-2-1 rotation.

2-3 home field rotation

3 games = 20 times (38.5%)
4 games = 14 times (26.9%)
5 games = 18 times (34.6%)

2-2-1 home field rotation

3 games = 32 times (33.3%)
4 games = 36 times (37.5%)
5 games = 28 times (29.2%)

Aggregate

3 games = 52 times (35.1%)
4 games = 50 times (33.8%)
5 games = 46 times (31.1%)

low 10-13-2023 06:24 PM

Just hoping for Texas vs Arizona, or I have zero interest in watching any of the World Series. Houston and Philly can get bent.

thehef 10-13-2023 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by low (Post 5046027)
Just hoping for Texas vs Arizona, or I have zero interest in watching any of the World Series. Houston and Philly can get bent.

That's pretty much where I am. Although if Phil or especially those freakin' Cheaters make it, that will give me a strong rooting interest in the series, which can make it more fun to watch. (Last year's was very difficult to watch... in fact I don't remember watching much of it.)

My prefs, in order:

1. Zona - That would be a cool story. Especially since they are mostly made up of really likeable players and a likeable manager.

2. Rangers - I don't particularly like them, as Scherzer's just a mercenary, and totally wussed out in the playoffs two years ago. And while I totally respect Bochy, I dislike him from his managing the rival Padres & especially Giants.

3. Phils - I mean it's Philly. and only five or ten fan bases in all of sports are more irritating than "Philly Fan."

4. Natural disaster that cancels the Series.

5. BlackStros - Never rooting for the Cheaters. Maybe once the few remaining cheater players are gone and that doosh owner Crane has sold the team, I'll merely intensely dislike them... Will never understand nor forgive how the idiot commissioner let them all off with a love-tap on the wrist.

Cobra Mgr 10-13-2023 07:07 PM

Even though I'm not a particular fan of the state, I'm pulling for the Rangers since they've never won it before & the Astros can meet me @ my backside & pucker up.

Le Grande Orange 10-13-2023 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thehef (Post 5045999)
Some of us have blamed the 5-day layoff for the top seeds as the primary reason for their downfalls, and looked to lessen that inequity.

For me, it was a case of wondering did the layoff help or hinder the idle team? It would seem the layoff definitely does not benefit a team, given the near coin flip results.

Quote:

Originally Posted by thehef (Post 5045999)
Maybe another approach would be to lengthen the down time for ALL teams, giving the WC winners a layoff, too. Maybe something like...

- Regular season ends on a Tuesday
- WC games are played on Thursday, Friday, and - if needed - Saturday
- No games Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday
- LDS' start on Wednesday

The issue with this is that MLB wants the WS to start on a specific day of the week for broadcast purposes. Once the WS start day and date is set, it works backwards from there to determine the WC, DS, and LCS schedules. (MLB also much prefers the regular season to end on a Sunday.)

The start day of the World Series for 1995 to the present:

1995–2006 = Saturday
2007–2013 = Wednesday
2014–2021 = Tuesday
2022–2023 = Friday

thehef 10-13-2023 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange (Post 5046046)
The issue with this is that MLB wants the WS to start on a specific day of the week for broadcast purposes. Once the WS start day and date is set, it works backwards from there to determine the WC, DS, and LCS schedules. (MLB also much prefers the regular season to end on a Sunday.)

Yep, makes sense. My choosing of Tuesday to end the regular season was just as a "for example" in order to play out the rest of the idea... The WS could still start on 10/27 (using this year as an example), they'd just need to end the season a few days earlier by either starting the season a few days earlier or taking a few days out of the regular season, or a combo of both.

But in the end, I'm sure we can all agree that any future changes - whether it's to address inequities, add more playoff teams, or otherwise tweak things, etc. - will be either motivated by increasing TV revenues, or at least doing no harm to them...

Westheim 10-14-2023 01:38 AM

Y'know that the lack of love for the 'stros in this thread will only make them stronger, right? :D

cephasjames 10-14-2023 07:18 AM

I'm okay with the Astros going all the way because I like Justin Verlander. I like seeing him add to his HoF career.

Beyond that, I'm indifferent.

MathBandit 10-14-2023 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange (Post 5046046)
For me, it was a case of wondering did the layoff help or hinder the idle team? It would seem the layoff definitely does not benefit a team, given the near coin flip results

Depends on the sample.

There have been 35 playoff games where one team had 4+ days off and the other team had 2 or less days off. The team with the 4+ days off has gone 24-11 in those games.

Le Grande Orange 10-14-2023 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MathBandit (Post 5046140)
Depends on the sample.

There have been 35 playoff games where one team had 4+ days off and the other team had 2 or less days off. The team with the 4+ days off has gone 24-11 in those games.

That's individual games. Does the layoff help a team win the series? It does not appear so.

Of course, there are a lot variables involved.

MathBandit 10-14-2023 02:29 PM

Is the argument that they are ready to go for game 1 (the game where they're actually rusty), but then get rusty after that game due to the previous time off?

Given a series is probably 55-45 or so, it doesn't particularly surprise me if the lower-seeded team wins about half the time (or slightly more) in fairly small samples. 24-11 in the 'rusty' game seems fairly definitive, though.

thehef 10-14-2023 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cephasjames (Post 5046085)
I'm okay with the Astros going all the way because I like Justin Verlander. I like seeing him add to his HoF career.

Beyond that, I'm indifferent.

I guess you'd have to be ok with the Astros going all the way regardless, if you can overlook Verlander's brazen hypocrisy on sign-stealing (and domestic violence). I mean that dude took hypocrisy well beyond what even politicians are capable of :ohmy:

Le Grande Orange 10-14-2023 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MathBandit (Post 5046151)
Given a series is probably 55-45 or so, it doesn't particularly surprise me if the lower-seeded team wins about half the time (or slightly more) in fairly small samples.

Well, we can look at the results of 2012–2019 and 2021 for those series in which both teams involved had a layoff and see to what degree the higher ranked team prevailed. The lower seeded team in the match-up is listed first; the winning team is bolded.

2012 = DET vs. OAK | SFN vs. CIN
2013 = DET vs. OAK | LAN vs. ATL
2014 = DET vs. BAL | SLN vs. LAN
2015 = TEX vs. TOR | NYN vs. LAN
2016 = BOS vs. CLE | LAN vs. WAS
2017 = BOS vs. HOU | CHN vs. WAS
2018 = CLE vs. HOU | ATL vs. LAN
2019 = MIN vs. NYA | SLN vs. ATL
2021 = CHA vs. HOU | ATL vs. MIL

Of the 18 series, the higher ranked team won 8, or 44%. The difference between the leagues is interesting, with the higher seeded division winner beating the lower seeded division winner 7 out of 9 times in the AL, whereas in the NL the higher seeded division winner only won 1 out of 9 series.

Of course, sometimes the difference between the seeded teams was only a couple of wins.

kq76 10-14-2023 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MathBandit (Post 5045924)
This is what I generally use for OOTP and find it fairly reasonable and realistic. Colorado is the outlier that makes the southern division kinda suck, but Colorado is just an outlier regardless of where you put it- and if you think putting it with the West is a better solution then you can move Portland to a more south/central location.

I like what you've done there (4 team divisions would almost guarantee a close to .500 team making the playoffs, so anything other than that is better in my mind), but if the betting odds of Nashville and Charlotte getting teams comes to fruition, how would you separate them then?

Colorado probably stays in the west. Pittsburgh goes the northeast. And although I like the Cardinals and Royals in the same division, I guess the Cardinals would go to the central. Then the 2 new teams go in the southeast.

I would prefer Montreal and Portland to get the teams, like you've done, but I imagine oddsmakers know more than most of us what will likely happen.

Le Grande Orange 10-14-2023 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MathBandit (Post 5045924)
This is what I generally use for OOTP and find it fairly reasonable and realistic.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kq76 (Post 5046190)
I like what you've done there (4 team divisions would almost guarantee a close to .500 team making the playoffs, so anything other than that is better in my mind), but if the betting odds of Nashville and Charlotte getting teams comes to fruition, how would you separate them then?

R.I.P. to the AL and NL in that setup. (It harkens back to the "radical realignment" that Selig was proposing back in the late 1990s/early 2000s.)

pilight 10-14-2023 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange (Post 5046196)
R.I.P. to the AL and NL in that setup. (It harkens back to the "radical realignment" that Selig was proposing back in the late 1990s/early 2000s.)

I can't imagine why that matters anymore. They move teams back and forth already. The rules are the same now. They're just arbitrary groupings.

kq76 10-14-2023 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pilight (Post 5046202)
I can't imagine why that matters anymore. They move teams back and forth already. The rules are the same now. They're just arbitrary groupings.

Exactly, and looking at MathBandit's image the only rivalry that is split up that I think anyone might cry over is Cubs-Cardinals, but if even 1 of the 2 odds favourites cities gets a team, Nashville and Charlotte, I think you can easily throw the Cardinals back in the Central with the Cubs.

I'd like to keep the AL and NL too, but if it's get rid of them or go with a wretched 4 team division format, I'm all for tossing the AL-NL overboard.

Bluenoser plays a 36 team setup that I quite like, but there's no way we're going to go from 30 teams to 36 overnight. We've been stuck at 30 for quite awhile, we'll probably be at 32 for awhile. We better go with a good setup for 32 or we'll see even more grumbling over playoff teams than we see now.

Cobra Mgr 10-15-2023 12:20 AM

The only reason to keep the AL/NL designations is sentimental feelings towards tradition. My mom is 80 & she still roots for the NL in the All Star game & WS. So I imagine it means something to older people. But I don't think the majority of baseball fans feel any allegiance to "their" league.


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