1971 Phillies

[Pelican]

1971 was a watershed year for the Philadelphia Phillies. It was the year that Veterans Stadium finally opened. A moribund franchise could now hope for better. Fans could put the 1964 near-miss behind them.

But the team on the field did not exactly inspire confidence. Dick Allen, then known as Richie, was gone, as was an aging Jim Bunning. Don Money, Larry Bowa, and Denny Doyle showed some promise in the infield. Larry Hisle had regressed in CF after a dazzling debut. Curt Flood refused to report, and rookie Willie Montanez was the compensation for that. In a trade with Baltimore, the Phils had turned down Don Baylor in favor of Roger Freed. They still had Ron Stone. The outfield was pretty much a disaster. Tim McCarver was a shadow of the catcher he had been in St. Louis.

Help was on the way. In addition to rookie Montanez, Greg Luzinski and Mike Schmidt were slugging in the high minors. Mike Anderson and Jerry Martin were not far behind. Barry Lersch, Wayne Twitchell, and Lowell Palmer showed promise (and inconsistency) on the mound.

Despite the prospect of a huge revenue increase, the Phillies management was conservative in approaching the new season. The front office seemed to sense that fans would flock to the new stadium, even if the team still sucked.

This simulation is intended to be a departure from that stand-pat approach. With the benefit of hindsight, the Phillies could and probably should have been active in trading for players who could help them immediately. Could the deals that would later bring Tug McGraw, Steve Carlton, Bobby Tolan, Cesar Tovar, and the return of Dick Allen have been accomplished earlier, in 1971? We'll try and see.

March 1971 [Clearwater, Florida]

[1] Traded John Briggs and Woodie Fryman to the Cardinals for Steve Carlton. (Carlton had an off-year in 1970, and St. Louis needed a lefty hitter. Fryman was still an effective starting pitcher.)
[2] Dealt LHP Ken Reynolds to the Pirates for minor league RHP Kent Tekulve. (Hindsight was a benefit here; although medium TCR could mean that Reynolds fares better, and Tekulve worse, over their careers...)
[3] Ron Stone to the Yankees for Jake Gibbs. (Stone had a great arm in RF, but could not hit. Phils desperately needed a catcher, and Gibbs is a lefty hitter.)
[4] OF Lloyd Hutchinson to LA for 2B Davey Lopes. (Two top prospects. Hutchinson was coming off a dominant season slugging in the low minors. Lopes was all speed and light hitting.)

April 1971

Spring Training revealed a number of deficiencies, particularly in pitching. The team that started the season would not be the team that ended it. The team goes 10-14 for the first month.

May 1971

[5] Rico Carty, who missed the entire 1971 Season with a serious injury, was a free agent in OOTP. The Phils signed him, but then traded him to the LA Dodgers for Dick Allen.
[6] Slugging 1B Deron Johnson was traded to the Mets for SP Jim McAndrew. Johnson would end up as a part-timer for the Dodgers; while McAndrew moved solidly into the Phils' rotation. This cleared the way for Greg Luzinski (.372/.437/.692 in 21 PCL games) to play 1B.
[7] Traded LHP Joe Hoerner, RHP Erskine Thompson, and RHP Roy Thomas to the Angels for RHP Lloyd Allen and 3B Billy Parker. (Allen had one great season with LA in 1971, at 21 years of age. Quickly became a lights-out reliever for the Phils. Parker slugged like crazy in the PCL. Hoerner and Thompson were effective in the Angels' pen.)
[8] Bobby Tolan was another player who missed all of 1971, after a tremendous season in 1970 with the Reds. IRL, he never fully recovered, and was never the same again - including 1976-77 with the Phils. He started the season on the IL, signed with the Phils, was activated in May, and gradually played his way back.
[9] Acquired Hank McGraw (Tug's brother) from Seattle for Barry Lersch. McGraw was a utility man who played SS for the Pilots. Lersch joined the Seattle rotation and pitched effectively. McGraw hit well in the PCL but not in the majors for the Phils.

June 1971

On June 6th, two big deals happened.
[10] LF Scott Reid to Minnesota for 2B Cesar Tovar. (Reid was a AAA slugger who only would play in 38 MLB games. In OOTP he has hit very well for the Twins in a platoon role. IRL Tovar would spend 1973 with Philadelphia, as a utility player.)
[11] Don Money and Bill Sudakis to Cleveland for Graig Nettles. (No idea why the Spiders would make this trade. Nettles was clearly a better 3B than Money; although Money could play SS too. Sudakis had one good year with the Dodgers as a utility guy, and could catch. I know, Philly has Mike Schmidt coming up at 3B; but this was too good to pass up. And now I may vote for DH in the NL in 1972....)
[12] Larry Hisle to the Mets for Tug McGraw. (Hisle had a great rookie season in 1969, and an awful sophomore slump in 1970. He started 1971 not hitting at all. Nada. The Mets had too much pitching but weak hitting. Oddly, they would flip Hisle to Minnesota, where he would be a bench player. Tug immediately became the Phils' closer, years before he was acquired IRL.)
[13] Obtained Joe Grzenda from Texas for minor leaguer Ted Zink. (Zink was a local guy in the low minors with great potential. Grzenda was a lights-out setup guy in the pen.)
[14] Jake Gibbs to SF for minor-leaguer Jim Barr. (Some benefit of hindsight here; although risky in that Barr may not develop as IRL. He was still a reliever for the Giants. Has pitched well as a SP in AAA for the Phils. Gibbs appears to be done at age 32.)
[15] Andre Thornton to St. Louis for Bob Stinson (C). (This is kind of reverse hindsight. Thornton was a feared slugger for Cleveland IRL. His potential numbers are good. Stinson is a solid defensive catcher who switch-hits. Filling a need. Plus Thornton blocked by Luzinski.)

July 1971

Phils by this point are a few games under .500, playing inconsistent ball, despite Luzinski exploding onto the scene, hitting well above .300 with power.

[16] Obtained IF Dave Nelson from Texas for RP Mudcat Grant. (Grant did not work out as the closer. Nelson is a guy I always liked. Great speed and decent defense. He's just a prospect at this point.)
[17] Traded Wayne Twitchell to Detroit for Mickey Lolich. (This is a surprising outcome from shopping a player with great stuff but wild. A classic trade deadline deal. Twitchell was 23 and a top prospect. Lolich only 30 but on the downside from his World Series heroics in 1968. The Motor City Kitties were rebuilding. Still, it's a steal. Lolich can still pitch. Twitchell has thrown decently for Detroit.)

August 1971

[18] Managed to work out a waiver deal: Jim Nash for Elrod Hendricks from the Orioles. (Another favorite player of mine. Nash was mediocre in the rotation, and expendable after obtaining Lolich. Stinson was not hitting much, so needed a catcher.)

September 1971

Needing an emergency catcher, brought up Barney Dickey, who was pounding the ball at Reading, good ratings, decent defense. In his first game, he hit for the cycle. Incredible. Never happened before. He's still hitting and is solid defensively. IRL he was out of baseball after 1971, despite a good year at low A.

[Pelican]

With just six games left in the 1971 Season, the Phillies are 74-82, good for fifth place in the NL Eastern Division; but just two games behind the Reds, three games behind Atlanta. The Pirates are runaway leaders at 101-55. SF and LA are tied in the West at 84-72. One of the Cali teams and the Mets (83-73) will be the Wild Card teams.

Over in the AL, the Orioles are rolling along at 103-53, eleven games ahead of the Yankees. The Red Sox are a strong third at 85-71, and have clinched the second Wild Card spot. Minnesota has clinched the West at 85-71, as no other team is above .500.

For the Phillies, Greg Luzinski is the likely Rookie of the Year, at .334 with 20 HR and 81 HR after coming up to the Majors in May.

After a similar late start, Bobby Tolan is hitting .301 with 78 RS and 44 SB (20 CS).

Graig Nettles overall hits .291 with 20 HR and 91 RBI, and outstanding defense at 3B.

Mike Schmidt, brought up with roster expansion, has hit .354 with 4 HR and 9 RBI, and has played some SS.

Cesar Tovar has hit .298 overall with 34 2B, 79 RS, and 20 SB (14 CS). Dave Nelson as a backup is at .327/.373/.465 in 36 games with 13 SB (10 CS).

Willie Montanez has had a solid rookie year in RF, hitting .277 with 13 HR and 69 RBI. Young Jerry Martin has hit .315 in 14 games as his backup.

Dick Allen has slumped to a disappointing .277 with only 10 HR and 52 RBI in LF. Mike Anderson has shared playing time, and in 75 games is hitting .279/.353/.474 with 12 2B and 12 HR and 30 RBI.

Larry Bowa has provided tremendous defense at SS while hitting .285 with a career-high 55 RBI and 39 SB (20 CS).

Elrod Hendricks solidified the catching and overall has hit .272 with 13 HR and 49 RBI. Stinson has been a disappointment at .242 (.266 with the Phillies) and little power.

As for the pitching:

Rick Wise 13-8 3.88
Mickey Lolich 17-10 2.49
Steve Carlton 10-11 3.13
Chris Short 9-10 3.33
Jim McAndrew 9-8 3.01

The bullpen has also been very good:

Tug McGraw, 2.24 ERA and 31 saves
Joe Grzenda, 1.12 ERA and 14 saves
Lloyd Allen, 3.35 ERA and 6-6
Pete Richert, 2.80 ERA and 1-2
Ramon Hernandez, 3.22 ERA in 36 innings
Darrell Brandon, 3.23 ERA in 61 innings
Kent Tekulve, 1.65 ERA in 16 innings

Clearly, these Phillies are less than the sum of these parts. It was disappointing that the team's performance did not improve over the season, as more key parts were acquired. The lesson here may be that baseball is a team game, and it can take time for guys to work out roles on the team, and to feel comfortable with one another. Young players can be inconsistent. But the talent is there.

Manager Huck Winston has stated in no uncertain terms that he fully expects this team to be contender, next year. The rotation and the bullpen are now solid, and the batting order, top to bottom, is formidable. With the NL expected to adopt the DH, the Phils will be able to play Nettles and Schmidt at the same time. It is unlikely that any more major deals will be made.

[Pelican]

Whoops! Just noticed that my 75-83 Phillies have a Pythagorean Record of 86-72, good enough to qualify for the Wild Card playoffs. The difference of eleven games is the greatest of any team. (The Pirates at 102-56 are nine games better than their predicted 93-65.)

My first reaction is that I must be a poor manager. The AI probably thinks that it could have won 86 games at this point. At least, that's one way I would interpret the Pythagorean calculation.

However, I suspect something else is at work here. My guess is that this calculation takes into account the performance of the players now on the team - including stats accumulated while playing for other teams, earlier in the season. For a team with many transaction like my 1971 Phillies, this projection reflects how this team should have performed, if all these players were on the Phillies for the whole year. Unfortunately, these Phillies started the season with some real clunkers - Don Money and Larry Hisle underperforming badly - plus Bobby Tolan hurt, Mike Schmidt and Greg Luzinski still in the minors. Those stats are no longer included in the calculation. Or so I understand it.

So, what the Pythagorean Record suggests is how these current guys would have collectively performed, if they had all been healthy and on the Phillies all season. I'll take that as a tribute to the wheeling and dealing and promotion I have done. And, a good indication of where this team should be next season.

Unfortunately, the above analysis fails to explain why this team has not performed better, since midseason, with all of the deals and promotions in place. That could be the poor managerial decisions.

[Brad K]

The Python is based on runs scored and runs allowed. It doesn't look at player performance.

Are you managing each game? Y'know, bad manager decisions result in scoring fewer runs or giving up more runs so if you're making bad decisions The Python won't show that.

[Pelican]

There it is. My run differential is +71 despite being six games under .500. Looking at team stats, that ugly 15-30 record in one-run games is a big red flag. The bullpen has been inconsistent. The Manager bears some responsibility for that.

I do play out every game, mostly on one-pitch mode.

Funny, I thought the "Python" was a far more complex calculation.

At least the Phillies are 49-42 since the All-Star break. And have four legitimate candidates for Rookie of the Year: Luzinski, Montanez, Anderson, and Schmidt.

[Brad K]

The Python answers the first level question of did the team score enough and prevent enough to have their W-L record. The next level - did the team deserve the runs scored and runs allows - doesn't change the reality of scored and allowed and thus the predicted W-L record. Its amply complex for that purpose.

I seriously doubt you've made enough bad decisions as a field manager to turn a plus .500 anticipated one run game performance into 15-30 with your bullpen decisions. You know too much about baseball for that.

[Pelican]

Well, the Phils finished strong to end up at 79-83, fourth place. The Pirates were World Champs, winning in six games over the surprising Twins, who upset the Orioles in the ALCS, 3-2.

The 1972 preseason predictions have the Phils at 98-64, twelve games ahead of the Mets and Pirates, Oh, my. I have activated the DH in both leagues for the 1972 Season.

More to come [screenshots], Would post more but operating on nine fingers. Cut one, just like the narrative that pops up (it did!!). On the mend. Stitches.