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Old 02-24-2024, 06:09 PM   #81
CBLCardinals
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Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 1,393
Hey gang,

Instead of waiting another few weeks to start up my own season using v4 of my Spring Training rosters, for the Boras 4 + JD Martinez to sign, I came up with a fun exercise below. I’d rather start a season now than wait another few weeks for those 5 to sign.

*** Please note this is NOT in the v4 rosters I’ve uploaded….tbis is for my personal universe I am running using v4 as the base.***

Since we have potential player preferences knowledge of variables the OOTP AI does not (for instance, Montgomery not interested in NYY, Bellinger not interested in LAD, Snell prefers West coast et al), I put on GM cap for all 30 team at their current state, and came up with offers from realistic suitors.

I took a projected “player demand”…..supply versus demand, and applied this to estimated asks from player agent, and estimated contract from Fangraphs (FG). Essentially if a player is still in high demand such as higher end SP’s, the player has more leverage. The opposite is also true…for instance JD Martinez can only DH, is 36, and only makes sense for a few amount of teams. Not much leverage for that player. In this exercise teams that are not realistic contenders in 2024 have to pay more of a premium (such as LA Angels).

I also weighed in multiple variables that differ player to player on what might be important to consider. Taking all of that data, I placed probabilities percentages for each player/team combination based on increments of 5. The higher the likelihood, the higher the probability. Final step is the most fun of all…. I let random number generator decide their fate.

Feel free to use below in your universe as well if you wish. If you use below would love to hear about your results!!

Player Demand Levels:

- Non-existent (Team has more control)
- Low
- Below average
- Average
- Above average
- High
- Very High (Player in control)

Realistic teams:
High-end SP market (Snell, Montgomery)
NYM
SFG
BOS
NYY
TEX
LAA

CF need
CHC
SD
LAD

3B need
SFG
TOR
CHC
MIL
SEA

DH need
NYM
LAA
DET
CLE


LHP Blake Snell
Fangraphs 25 X 5 = 125
Agent 30M AAV or 200M total
Demand = High
Random Number Generator Winner
*** New York Mets ***

Variables
- West Coast ****
- High Salary ***
- Likes Bob Melvin (SF) **
- Mets need SP with Senga injury, Cohen has most $$$ ***

Probabilities
SF - 35% / 30x6 = 180 +++ 1-35
NYM - 35% / 36x5 = 181 +++ 36-70 ✅
NYY - 20% / 30x5 = 150 +++ 71-90
LAA - 10% / 30x7 = 210 +++ 91-100

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

LHP Jordan Montgomery
Fangraphs 28 X 5 = 140
Agent 28M AAV or 175M
Demand = High
Random Number Generator Winner
*** Texas Rangers ***

Variables
- Won WS w TEX *****
- Prefers winning team
- Zero interest in NYY
- Wife in Boston ***
- Mets need SP with Senga injury, Cohen has most $$$ **

TEX - 40% / 25x7 = 175 +++ 1-40 ✅
BOS - 25% / 28x6 = 168 +++ 41-65
NYM - 25% / 30x6 = 180 +++ 66-90
SF - 5% / 30x5 = 150 +++ 91-95
LAA - 5% / 30x6 = 180 +++ 96-100
NYY - 0%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

OF Cody Bellinger
Fangraphs 25 X 6 = $150M
Agent 8 years and/or 200M
Demand = Below Average
Random Number Generator Winner
*** Chicago Cubs ***

Variables
- Comfortable in Chicago ****
- Prefers Long term deal *****
- Prefers CF **
- Zero interest in LAD
- Desires early player opt out option***

CHC - 90% / 25 X 6 = 150 +++ 1-90*** ✅
SD - 10% / 20 X 8 = 160 +++ 91-100
LAD - 0%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

3B Matt Chapman
Fangraphs 20 X 4 = $80M
Agent 100M
Demand = Below Average
Random Number Generator Winner
*** San Francisco Giants ***

Variables
- Likes Bob Melvin *
- Played in TOR *
- Prefers highest Contract years ****

SF - 35% / 20x4 = 80 +++ 1-35 ✅
TOR - 35% / 17x4 = 68 +++ 36-70
CHC - 20% / 22x3 = 66 +++ 71-90
MIL - 5% / 15x3 = 45 +++ 91-95
SEA - 5% / 15x3 = 45 +++ 96-100

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

DH JD Martinez
Fangraphs 14 X 1 = $14M
Agent 2 years, 40M
Demand = Low
Random Number Generator Winner
*** Los Angeles Angels ***

Variables
- Prefers winning team **
- Prefers 2 year deal *****
- Prefers not pitchers park *
- Clear DH role ***

NYM - 50% / 14 X 1 = 14 +++ 1-50
LAA - 40% / 15 X 2 = 30 +++ 51-90 ✅
DET - 5% / 12 X 1 = 12 +++ 91-95
CLE - 5% / 10 x 1 = 10 +++ 96-100

Last edited by CBLCardinals; 02-24-2024 at 08:53 PM.
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